Algerian elections and the future course of the country
Algeria is the largest state in Africa with the prospect of becoming a regional or even continental leader. After a civil war that lasted from 1992 to the early 2010s, the country is trying to restart industrial development and increase production of oil gas and petroleum, its main export commodities. Against the backdrop of the SMO, the EU has begun to show increased interest in Algeria as a gas supplier and EU outpost in North Africa. Nevertheless, Algeria is also keen to develop a partnership with Russia, mindful of the generous assistance from the USSR.
Presidential elections in september 2024 and a general assessment of the current domestic political situation in Algeria
On 7 September 2024, Algeria held early presidential elections, which were won by incumbent President Abdelmajid Tebboun, representing the country's largest party, the Front for National Liberation (FNL). Tebboon won 84.3 per cent of the vote. His opponents, Abdelali Hassani Sharif of the moderate Islamist Peace Society Movement party and Yousef Oshish of the Socialist Forces Front party, won 9.56 per cent and 6.14 per cent of the vote respectively.
Abdelmajid Tebboune ran for president for the first time in 2019, after President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who ruled Algeria for 20 years, stepped down amid mass protests. Tebboune had previously served as Algeria's prime minister for two years. After becoming president, Tebboune held a national referendum on amendments to the Algerian constitution in 2020 in order to stabilise the situation inside the country. During the referendum, the majority of citizens supported amendments limiting the president's power and tenure to a maximum of eight years or two four-year terms.
Algeria is the largest country in Africa, and in addition has large reserves of valuable natural resources, because of which Algeria had the status of one of the most valuable colonies of France. Algeria became an independent state in 1962 after a grueling and bloody war of independence, which claimed the lives of 150,000 to 1.5 million people, according to various sources. After the War of Independence, Algeria was ruled by the left-socialist National Liberation Front, and the country began to establish close relations with the USSR and the countries of the socialist bloc.
USSR was the first in the world to recognise Algeria's independence.This happened on 23 March 1962 - four months before Algeria's official declaration of independence, which took place on 5 July of the same year. From the 1960s to the 1970s and up until the collapse, the USSR actively helped Algeria by sending engineers and other specialists to build the industrial and transport infrastructure there. After the collapse of the USSR, joint projects with Algeria were cancelled, and the development of Algerian-Russian relations began in the mid-2000s.
In the 1990s, Algeria began a civil war that lasted about 20 years and left a heavy legacy of more than 200,000 dead, a dilapidated country, political instability and the rise of radical Islam. In 2010, it was in Algeria that attempts to overthrow the government began, which spread to the whole of North Africa and part of the Middle East, called the Arab Spring.
Now the internal political situation in Algeria can be characterised as moderately stable. This stability is facilitated by the de facto alliance of the FLN, the country's ruling party, with the military. Nevertheless, armed clashes with Islamists continued throughout the first half of the 2010s. Islamists fleeing Algeria often ended up in France, further fuelling tensions between the two countries.
The EU is particularly interested in a stable domestic political situation in Algeria: it now hopes that Algerian hydrocarbons will help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian gas and other Russian minerals. Algeria's neighbours - Morocco, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Tunisia - hope that the defeat of Islamists in Algeria will reduce the terrorist threat to their regimes as well. Recall that in 2010-2012, in the wake of the Arab Spring, the likelihood of radical Islamists coming in was extremely high. In addition, the example of other neighbours - Libya and more distant Syria and Iraq - shows how damaging the Arab Spring has been for North African and Middle Eastern countries.
As for international politics, Algeria has several priorities: developing cooperation with the Sahel and Maghreb countries to fight Islamic terrorists, supporting the independence of Palestine and Western Sahara, opposing France's neo-colonial policy, and most importantly, building relations with the BRICS countries and Italy, France's rival in the Mediterranean region. Algeria adheres to the principles of non-alignment with military and political blocs, anti-colonialism and defence of Third World interests.
Industrial and economic development and co-operation with other countries
Algeria is an industrialised state, the Algerian economy is based mainly on the fuel industry (extraction of gas, oil and other valuable hydrocarbons). As a major oil supplier, Algeria became a member of OPEC in 2005. According to OPEC data for 2023, Algeria was the third largest oil producer among African countries. In October 2024, the President of Algeria stated that he would like to join the BRICS Bank, an initiative to finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS states and developing countries.
Algeria's current economic priorities include the development of domestic consumption of gas and electricity, the production of high value-added products based on gas and oil produced in the country, increasing gas supplies to the EU and other countries, and, finally, the production of wind and solar energy.
Based on the priority of the fuel and economic sector in Algeria's economy, key projects with foreign participation are being implemented in this sector. ‘Helped’ by the growth of interest in Algeria and the SMO: in an effort to abandon Russian gas and oil, European countries began to seek cooperation with Algeria, although the conditions of the vision of hydrocarbon activities in Algeria are not the most attractive. Thus, in 2024, Algeria sent the first gas supplies to Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, and also received more than $10bn of investments from the US for the development of joint oil and gas projects.
The share of foreign companies in joint projects with Algeria cannot exceed 49%, the rest is owned by the state or Algerian state companies.
At present, the main supplies of Algerian gas go to Italy, with which Algeria has the closest and, one could say, friendly relations among Western countries. The Italian oil and gas concern ENI is a promoter of Italy's interests in Algeria and has already started implementing projects both to develop new gas fields in Algeria and to improve the efficiency of existing ones.
At the moment, despite the development of relations in the 2000s, trade and economic ties with Russia can hardly be called strong. Russia's main import to Algeria for a long time was weapons. There are no goods from Algeria on the Russian market, but after the SMO there was talk of supplying Algerian wine and dried fruit. Nevertheless, Russia may have to compete not only with gas supplies from the US and Qatar, but also from Algeria in its struggle for European markets or their return after the Nordic Treaty Organisation.
Despite possible disagreements over gas supplies to Europe, Algeria and Russia have plans to resume infrastructure and industrial projects. The positions of Russia and Algeria converge on a number of international issues: transition to a multipolar world, reducing tensions in the Middle East and Africa. Both countries also share the idea of the need to reduce France's influence in West Africa.
If Algeria can maintain domestic political stability by fighting radical Islamist parties and terrorists, the country could become an influential player in Africa and the Mediterranean. An economic programme that takes into account the government's plans to develop the oil and gas industry and green energy could improve living standards in the country and help attract investment. It would be worthwhile for Russia to develop cooperation with Algeria on the production of oil and gas fertilisers and other high value-added products. Deepening relations with Algeria on counter-terrorism issues could also have a positive impact on Russia's future policy in Africa.
