Arsenal of Democracy: America on the verge of military collapse
This turn of phrase used by Franklin D. Roosevelt at the height of World War II has come to symbolize the patriotism and the sacrifice of the American nation. To be the arsenal of democracy, according to the U.S. leader, meant providing the Allies with weapons of war: airplanes, tanks, cannons, cargo ships – anything that would allow them to fight for their own freedom and the safety of the American people. Thus, Washington abandoned its policy of isolationism, non-interference, and neutrality, which, in turn, spurred the development of the military-industrial complex and marked the beginning of American interference in armed conflicts around the world. Today, however, the White House is exhausted by its military aid, the decline of the military-industrial complex, legislative complications, and China's industrial might, which together call into question the triumph of democracy.
World War II
Long before Roosevelt's speech, the theorists and ideologues of the arsenal of democracy considered American business to be one of the most important pillars of the country. The president's December 1940 speech urging Americans to provide the Allies with equipment and weapons once and for all changed Washington's role in international conflicts. In March 1941, Congress passed the Act to Promote the Defense of the United States, better known as Lend-Lease. Under the act, the United States supplied Great Britain, the USSR, France, and China with food, oil, and materiel.
During the war, the United States concluded Lend-Lease agreements with more than 30 countries, providing them with about $50 billion in aid. This amounted to 17% of total U.S. military spending, which increased fivefold during that time. The majority of Democrats were unequivocally in favor of the Lend-Lease Act, with only isolationist Republicans in stiff opposition, as they considered the arms deliveries "a long step toward direct participation in the war abroad."
The actual symbol of the manufacturing power of the United States during World War II was Detroit. In a short time, its industry was reorganized for the production of military equipment. Jeeps, M3 and M4 tanks, bombers, artillery pieces, ammunition, helmets, medicines, and military spare parts were produced both in large automobile and shipbuilding factories and in small toolmaking shops. Detroit made 91% of all army helmets. The Chrysler factory alone produced half of all American tanks. In the summer of 1944, Ford already produced a B-24 bomber every hour. By the end of the war, U.S. companies had produced 2.6 million military vehicles and 25% of the entire arsenal used by the Allies during the war. As Walter Reuther, leader of the United Automobile Workers, noted, America's battles were won on the assembly lines of Detroit.
Between 1941 and 1945, the American economy grew at an unprecedented rate. The U.S. gross national product rose from $88.6 billion in 1939 to $135 billion in 1944. Through military aid, the U.S. was able to take up strategically important geopolitical positions. 50 US Navy destroyers were transferred to the British and Canadian Navy in exchange for 99-year leases of territories in Newfoundland and the Caribbean, which were used as American air and naval bases.
Due to its wartime industrial expansion, the U.S. emerged from the war as an economically strong nation capable of implementing the Marshall Plan to rebuild destroyed infrastructure in the allied countries. Even before the end of the war, the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference defined key features of international economic relations, setting standards for currency convertibility and creating the International Monetary Fund, the predecessor of the World Bank. All these steps allowed the next U.S. president, Harry Truman, to allocate material aid to Turkey and Greece in 1947 to deter "communist aggression" that threatened American security. The logical culmination of this U.S. policy was the creation of a new military alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in 1949.
However, the main geopolitical victory for the United States was in the Middle East. The development and maintenance of supply lines was one of the central factors in the successful implementation of Lend-Lease. To this end, port facilities in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf were expanded, and the port of Massawa, destroyed in 1941, was rebuilt. The necessary infrastructure was actively built in Iran: an oil pipeline was laid from the Iranian oil fields to the refinery in Palestine, and capacities at the Abadan plant were expanded to produce aviation gas needed by the Allies in the Middle East. In this way, Roosevelt managed to achieve U.S. dominance over the oil industry in a region that had previously been the undisputed sphere of influence of Britain and France.
Empty warehouses of the hegemon
In 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Lend-Lease Act in defense of democracy in Ukraine. Similar to Roosevelt's 1941 program, the document allowed the U.S. government to lend or lease a wide range of military equipment to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries. Moreover, the U.S. establishment perceives China's military expansion into Taiwan and the South China Sea as an incentive to increase investment in manufacturing.
However, the White House is now facing a clear shortage of weapons: it will take several years to make up for the shortage of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, whose production was halted back in 2003. The U.S. defense company Raytheon, the only manufacturer of these weapons, is forced to bring retired employees back to production to share their experience with younger colleagues.
The most pressing problem now, however, is the shortage of metal. On December 22, 2023, the White House said it would investigate the purchase of US Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel. According to the head of the National Economic Council, Lael Brainard, the corporation was an integral part of the arsenal of democracy during World War II. It is a key component of the U.S. steel industry and critical to U.S. national security.
The reactive decision of the Japanese to buy the American concern was caused, first of all, by the influx of cheap Chinese metal. Beijing, which produces 55% of the world's steel, produced 874.7 million tons in just 10 months of this year, which is 1.4% more than in the same period last year. India and Russia are also among the top steel-producing countries that are increasing their output. Production in Africa is also growing. According to Worldsteel, 5.2 million tons of steel were produced in January – August this year, 16.1% more than in 2022.
According to Paul London, Ph.D. and former policy advisor to the U.S. Commerce Secretary, the manifestation of American patriotism today is investment in military and civilian modernization. It is this spending that can convince the world that democracy can stand up to autocracies. But since the beginning of Russia’s special military operation, U.S. defense production has increased by only 10%, despite high ammunition consumption. An Army Research Council study says the army has steadily reduced purchases of 155mm artillery shells and other ammunition based on a shortsighted analysis of the low spending in Iraq and Afghanistan.
According to plans, the U.S. could increase its own production of 155mm ammunition from 15,000 to 90,000 per month by the end of 2024. This may be enough to meet Ukraine's demand, but the risk of a major U.S. ground war in the short term seems to analysts to be less likely than the risk of a sea or air conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.
Long-overdue reform of the military-industrial complex
In a letter regarding critical funding needs for 2024, U.S. Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young listed Ukraine and Israel among the main recipients of aid. In addition, Biden officials also consider comprehensive deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region to be of paramount importance.
A couple of months before the letter was published, the leaders of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea held the first trilateral summit with the aim of strengthening security in the region. China saw the meeting as an attempt to create a trilateral military alliance in Northeast Asia "along the lines of a mini-NATO." That said, the amounts of funding the Biden administration is asking for to rebuild the arsenal of democracy have exposed the mistakes that U.S. policymakers have been making for the past three decades. Shell shortages, lack of combat equipment and funding for submarine construction, dwindling shipbuilding, Republican opposition – all of these factors inevitably affect the responsiveness and effectiveness of Washington's war machine.
The widespread and lengthy deindustrialization of the U.S. economy aimed at developing health care and other services has led to a decline in industrial production, which is now significantly inferior to that of China. According to Wes Mitchell, former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs and the founder of The Marathon Initiative, a think tank that studies the competitive nature of relations between great powers, the United States needs to reorient some civilian production toward military purposes. It is also possible to mobilize the American industry by expanding its capacity and revising environmental regulations that now make it difficult to produce war materials.
South Korea and Japan could become part of the arsenal of democracy by committing to naval production, which is now in decline in the United States. However, this would necessitate passing changes to the Johnson Act, which requires that naval ships be built and maintained by Americans. Moreover, to meet the current challenges, the U.S. could exert more diplomatic pressure on Europe, especially Germany, which, according to the White House, should produce more munitions. At the same time, France, along with India, are seen by the U.S. as reliable partners in meeting the demand for military equipment and munitions.
Among the short-term goals is also defeating China in drone manufacturing. Local manufacturers and consumers need subsidies and incentives similar to those mandated by the Chip Act. In addition, the very structure of defense production, which is now largely concentrated in the hands of large corporations like Raytheon, needs to be modified. It is the destruction of small defense enterprises that has led to the reduction of the workforce: 1.1 million people in comparison to the 3 million employed in the MIC in 1985.
As history demonstrates, the arsenal of democracy has always remained an important tool for Washington to promote its own interests and wage proxy wars on the territory of foreign countries. It is unlikely that the current geopolitical situation will force the U.S. government to abandon the tradition that has developed over the years. In the foreseeable future, based on the disappointing results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the United States will try to reformat its defense enterprises and focus on the production of long-range artillery systems, so it will be able to defend itself against the growing threat from Russia, China, and other countries potentially capable of confronting the United States.
