Europe's future is in the hands of regional leaders
In recent years, European countries have faced a number of unprecedented challenges that have affected their political and economic spheres. These include the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbass, Western sanctions pressure on Russia, domestic political instability and disagreements, as well as growing competition between Russia and China with the United States. Moreover, with Donald Trump taking office as President of the United States, American support for Ukraine, as well as NATO, is weakening. At the same time, Washington's dialogue with Moscow has resumed, which has had an additional negative impact on the situation in Europe. Against this background, an obvious question arises about the future leader on the European continent in the event of a decrease in US interest in the region.
Global situation
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 elections was a turning point in international relations between the United States of America and its partners. The newly elected president announced a return to the "America First" doctrine, which significantly affected Washington's foreign policy strategy. One of the main changes concerned a change in the approach to supporting the European part of NATO - according to the position of the Donald Trump administration, EU countries should increase military spending to 5% of GDP, while the president himself is not sure that the United States should spend the allocated funds on financing a military alliance in order to ensure security in the region. Against this background, discontent among European countries that are most dependent on American military aid and border Russia can be expected to increase - these are the countries of Eastern Europe (in particular Poland, which seeks to increase military spending to 5% of GDP in 2025) and the Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia).
Many EU countries also disagree with the US position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as the Trump administration initially did not intend to allocate a new aid package to Ukraine, given that Washington has spent more than $350 billion on it. At the same time, the rapid rapprochement between the US and Russia on issues of bilateral diplomatic cooperation, including those affecting a possible settlement of the situation in Ukraine, was perceived negatively by both key EU countries and Ukraine itself. For example, the US refusal to vote “for” the anti-Russian resolution in the UN General Assembly and Washington’s intention to enter into negotiations with Moscow without the participation of European countries caused a strong reaction among Western countries.
In addition, the US's reduced interest in supporting Ukraine may be due to the presence of higher-priority goals in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East, where Washington is systematically seeking to consolidate and strengthen its presence both militarily and economically. In the future, trade competition between China and the US in the Asia-Pacific region will only intensify, and in the Middle East, Washington will continue to support Israel, while simultaneously developing and strengthening relations with Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia on energy and military-industrial complex issues.
Potential Leaders
France
Donald Trump's second term in office has seen a shift in US foreign policy, with a reconsideration of traditional alliances and a reduction in the US military presence in Europe. His desire to establish diplomatic ties with Russia and repeated threats to cut military aid to Ukraine have raised concerns among European allies about the US commitment to EU security. This has prompted key countries in the region to increase their own defence spending and seek alternative security strategies.
As the president of one of the states claiming leadership in Europe, Emmanuel Macron has been actively promoting the ideas of European autonomy and strategic independence since Trump's first presidency. He has stressed the need to strengthen European integration and create a security system independent of the US, the relevance of which will only increase with the decline of American support for NATO.
At the same time, Macron is seeking to strengthen coordination in the areas of defense and foreign policy, which will help strengthen France's position as a political leader in Europe. Thus, in the event of a possible withdrawal of the American contingent from European countries, Paris will be ready to provide Germany with French fighters capable of carrying nuclear warheads instead of American ones.
Despite frequent mass protests and strikes against the backdrop of ongoing internal reforms, as well as intense competition with the left (Marine Le Pen) and the right (Jean-Duc Mélenchon), Emmanuel Macron is the only regional leader who has remained in office since the start of the Russian NVO in Donbas, unlike the leaders of Great Britain and Germany (Friedrich Merz will become the new Chancellor of Germany).
However, in terms of international influence, France's position has been declining in recent years. This is primarily due to regression in relations with some African countries that were former colonies of the French Republic. Growing anti-French sentiments contributed to the fact that in African states such as Mali, Chad, Niger and Burkina Faso, mass unrest occurred, resulting in a decline in French influence or the withdrawal of military contingents. Also, against the backdrop of a large-scale struggle with the legacy of the colonial past, last year's statements by the President of Senegal about the need to withdraw all foreign troops from the country led to the fact that in March 2025, the French military handed over control of two military facilities to the African side, and by the end of the year they will have to completely leave its territory.
The anti-colonialist course of African states also affected France's energy dependence. As a leader in Europe in nuclear energy, the republic faced interruptions in uranium supplies from Niger, which accounted for about 20% of the total supply in 2022. In the summer of 2024, the Nigerian authorities revoked the permit for the Orano nuclear corporation to develop one of the largest uranium deposits, the reserves of which, according to preliminary estimates, reach up to 200 thousand tons. This is why France is currently forced to look for new sources of uranium supplies that can both support its nuclear energy and efforts to create its own "nuclear umbrella". Considering that Paris's main suppliers were also Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (which are closely linked to the Russian Federation in terms of mining and processing of uranium raw materials), Namibia, Australia and Canada, in the future France may become more dependent on Russia's energy resources, which may negatively affect the state's reputation against the backdrop of the EU's refusal to accept Russian supplies of minerals.
Germany
Germany has traditionally played a key role in the European Union, being the region’s largest economy and a major political player. However, its ability to assume full leadership in the context of weakening US influence and geopolitical instability remains questionable. According to the Atlantic Council, Germany’s economy has grown by only 1.6% since 2017, which is well below the EU average of 9.5%, and the European Commission forecasts that Germany’s GDP will grow by only 0.7% in 2025, which will be the lowest figure among other EU countries. At the same time, the country’s industrial production is also on a downward trend: in 2024, production volume was 90% of the 2015 level. This was the result of such economic factors as low public investment, which amounts to less than 3% of GDP, dependence on product exports, and high energy costs. Against this background, it is becoming more difficult for Germany to compete with manufacturers from China, which, unlike German ones, receive a significant amount of subsidies from the state. For example, the automotive industry, in which Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz play a key role, is under threat due to high production costs and a technological lag in terms of batteries for electric vehicles from China's BYD and NIO, as well as in terms of production scalability.
Such economic problems in Germany were one of the reasons for holding early elections to the Bundestag, the results of which revealed the need to change the political landscape of the state. As a result of the elections, the CDU/CSU bloc (Christian Democratic Union of Germany and Christian Social Union in Bavaria) gained 28% of the vote, strengthening the position of traditional conservatives, which means a possible shift towards a tougher foreign policy and increased military spending. At the same time, the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) received a record 20.7%, which reflected the growth of Eurosceptic and nationalist sentiments in the country, the influence of which could complicate decisions on integration within the EU.
At the same time, the election platforms of German parties often touched on security and defense issues. The manifesto of the winning CDU/CSU bloc supported the creation of a stronger industrial base for the European defense industry, the coordination of defense initiatives with neighboring countries, including missile defense, and the strengthening of cooperation with other countries on the development of the military-industrial complex, the supply of relevant equipment and materials. Moreover, the manifesto also considered the possibility of restoring the practice of conscription and a commitment to increasing the defense budget to 2% of GDP. Such aspects may become even more relevant against the backdrop of pressure from the Trump administration on NATO allies. At the same time, Germany traditionally relies on the alliance in defense matters, which is forcing Berlin to reconsider its strategy. For example, future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already called on France and Great Britain to strengthen their defense against nuclear threats in order to ensure Europe's independence from Donald Trump's policies. Despite the fact that Germany remains a key economic player in Europe, its current foreign policy and military strategies do not allow it to fully lay claim to the role of the sole leader of the region. Despite their allied ties, Paris and Berlin compete for leadership in the EU, especially in matters of defense and energy, and Germany will most likely lose in this struggle. From a foreign policy point of view, Germany seeks to strengthen its influence in the states of Eastern Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary), but its policy of sanctions against Russia causes disagreement among Eastern European allies, and the country's insufficient activity in matters of arms supplies to Ukraine has completely undermined Germany's authority. It is quite possible that, as dependence on Washington decreases, not only will issues of ensuring the security of NATO members be affected, but economic problems will also arise: Germany may find itself "between two fires" in the form of the United States and China, on which the country's economy depends. However, Germany will be able to once again claim leadership in Europe if the new government led by Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU coalition and AfD can strike a balance between the policy of European integration and the country's own national interests.
United Kingdom
After leaving the European Union, the UK faced the need to rethink its foreign policy. Having lost influence within the EU, London sought to strengthen its global role through military cooperation and diplomatic ties with states, including former colonies: African countries, India, Canada and Australia, with which an agreement was signed in 2021 to create the AUKUS military alliance. However, these countries now pursue independent foreign policies that favor the United States or China. At the same time, on the path to “independence”, London faced a deteriorating economic situation, difficult relations with continental Europe and a changing global balance of power. However, in the context of a significant decline in US influence in Europe in 2025, the UK under Prime Minister Keir Starmer can take active steps to strengthen its position as a potential leader of the continent.
Despite disagreements with EU countries, the UK remains committed to NATO goals, actively participating in joint exercises and deploying its contingent on the eastern borders of the alliance - in Poland, Estonia and Latvia. In addition, following the general Western narratives, British Prime Minister Starmer announced an increase in British defense spending to 2.5% of the kingdom's GDP by 2027, emphasizing that this decision will allow the country to strengthen its defense capability and play a more significant role in ensuring Europe's global security. The increase in spending is planned to be achieved by reducing aid to other countries from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP from 2027, which indicates a clear change in London's foreign policy priorities.
In economic terms, the UK has many problems that prevent it from claiming firm leadership in Europe, namely: rising unemployment, rising inflation, increasing public debt and rising energy prices after the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation. In January 2025, the country's economy contracted by 0.1% due to a decline in factory output, which was caused not only by the current financial problems, but also by uncertainty about the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, introduced by the Donald Trump administration. In addition, the poor economic performance has provoked internal disagreements between the parties over the policies pursued by the Labour Party.
However, in contrast to the domestic situation, London's recent foreign policy actions have attracted positive attention from EU countries. Prime Minister Starmer was one of the first European heads of state in 2025 to propose sending a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict or upon reaching a temporary ceasefire. Earlier, in 2024, a similar idea was promoted by France, so London and Paris found common ground on creating a coalition of countries willing to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. Presumably, this idea will also be supported by the Baltic countries, Finland, Spain, as well as Australia, Canada and Türkiye.
Possible scenarios for the development of the regional situation
The change in US foreign policy and internal problems in Europe create several possible scenarios for the future of the continent. In each of them, the key variables are the level of EU consolidation, the balance of influence of external actors, and the degree of independence of European states in security and economic matters.
Scenario 1: Europe consolidates and creates an independent security system
In this scenario, the EU and the UK take decisive steps to strengthen their own defense capabilities and strategic autonomy, which leads to the creation of an independent European security system. In this case, France and Germany can play a decisive role, with the support of EU bodies such as the European Commission, with Paris acting as a guarantor of European security due to the presence of its own nuclear weapons. At the same time, the remaining EU members will increase their defense spending to 2.5% of GDP or higher. In parallel, the UK, in coordination with Germany and the French Republic, strengthens cooperation with the countries of Eastern Europe. NATO's presence and influence in Europe is weakening due to the US's declining involvement, but Washington will perceive the EU's growing influence as a threat.
Scenario 2: Fragmentation of Europe and Strengthening National Interests
According to this scenario, European countries will be unable to develop a unified strategy, which will lead to the fragmentation of the continent into several competing blocs. This could be characterized by the rapprochement of Eastern European and Baltic countries with the US and UK in opposition to key EU countries. However, the domestic economic situation may prevent London from establishing itself as a leader in the region. Germany and France may initiate new joint initiatives in the defense and energy sectors, while Germany may face internal political barriers.
Scenario 3: Growing Influence of Russia and China
If the US finally reduces its involvement in the European agenda and the EU is unable to develop a unified policy, a power vacuum will arise, which will be filled by Russia and China. The US administration will focus on domestic issues and the Asia-Pacific region, which will reduce the US military presence in Europe, which will reduce NATO's influence. China may attempt to increase its economic influence through infrastructure projects and investments in the EU economies. Russia may begin to cooperate more actively with European countries such as Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia, as well as spread its influence through energy supplies, which may contribute to the partial lifting of sanctions.
The most likely scenario in the short term (3-5 years) is Scenario 2, since there are too many contradictions within the EU for rapid consolidation due to the different views of France, Germany, Eastern Europe and the UK. The internal economic problems of the countries do not allow for the rapid creation of alternative defense mechanisms and energy independence, and the US is not yet ready to completely leave Europe, but its involvement is declining.
However, in the long term (5–15 years), Scenario 1 may develop if Germany and France are able to overcome their internal political differences and offer effective and sustainable economic strategies and security plans on the continent. The key for European states will be whether they will be able to find a balance between integration and national interests, and for the UK – whether they will be able to restore economic stability and increase their military influence.
