G20 Summit under Indian Chairmanship

Main agenda: climate and environment

The upcoming G20 2023 summit in New Delhi will be chaired by India. The country has expressed the importance of supporting the nations of the global South, addressing and resolving issues related to the global food and fuel crisis, environment, climate, digitalisation and health. In this regard, India invited G20 members to support its ambitious seven-year plan to reform the global governance structure and ensure sustainable development.

Nevertheless, at the end of negotiations at the G20 Environment and Climate Ministers' Meeting held in July in Chennai, India, developed and developing countries failed to reach a consensus on reducing CO2 emissions. EU Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius condemned the results of the meeting, which, according to him, highlighted the failure of countries to fulfil their commitments to address climate change. The disagreement came amid a phasing out of fossil fuels: with some delegations - China and Saudi Arabia - seeking to scrap previous climate agreements and developing nations opposing the initiative by a group of developed countries, insisting it is impossible to sustain their economic growth without industrial fuels. However, the G20 members are not going to refuse to comply with the 2015 Paris Agreement, believing that it is right to comply with the provisions of this document in an inclusive manner, considering various circumstances and factors. 

African Union

Another important theme of the upcoming summit will be the African Union's (AU) admission to the G20 as a full member alongside the European Union. Russia was one of the first countries to speak positively about the AU's membership in the group, noting that the union is an important regional organisation that should be able to "fully participate in the mechanisms of global governance". In recent years, Russia and African countries have been actively pursuing a rapprochement, as evidenced by growing trade turnover, large investments by Russian businesses in the continent, and cooperation within the framework of the Russia-Africa Forum held in St Petersburg and other international organisations - the recent expansion of BRICS was also through the inclusion of African countries.

However, such rapprochement between Russia and African countries is opposed by the countries of the collective West and the United States, which are interested in obtaining mineral resources, rare earth and precious metals from the continent. Back in April, the US Congress passed a law on countering "Russia's malicious activities in Africa," and although many African countries (South Africa, Zimbabwe and others) have protested against the document, the upcoming summit could become a convenient platform for the continued spread of anti-Russian ideas. In the absence of the leaders of Russia and China, EU representatives are planning to hold a series of meetings with African representatives to review policies on the continent, which could threaten the African Union with a new dependence on the European Union. Nevertheless, recent statements and policies of African leaders indicate that the countries are wary of the colonial attitudes of the US and the EU, so the general trend is towards co-operation with developing countries and alternative world leaders such as Russia and China.

China's national map

Ahead of the G20 summit in New Delhi, China has published a new national map on which territories of neighbouring countries are marked as Chinese. These include the Great Ussuri Island, officially divided between China and Russia, as well as the Aksaichin region bordering India - a development that was negatively perceived, including by the Indian side. It is likely that the aggravation of relations between India and China may be one of the reasons why Chinese President Xi Jinping refused to attend the summit.

However, the summit will be important for the People's Republic of China because there is a possibility of discussing the economic situation in China itself and the possibility of including the African Union in the G20. As the largest trading partner for some African Union countries such as South Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria and others, China will further strengthen its foreign economic ties and co-operation with these countries.

Xi Jinping's refusal may also be related to the deterioration of relations with the United States. At the same time, representatives of the United States media stated that President Joe Biden would like to hold a dialogue with the Chinese President in order to resolve the contradictions arising from trade wars and geopolitical rivalry. But despite the US President's statements about his desire to get closer to China, Biden's Asian tour, which is being prepared immediately after the summit, will be connected with establishing contacts with the countries of the AU and the Asia-Pacific region. For example, during his trip Biden will visit Vietnam, whose main partners today are China and Russia.

It can be assumed that all these events are interconnected: the deterioration of China's relations with India and the US is correlated with the latter's military co-operation through QUAD.

Against the background of the absence of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit, the meeting has already been dubbed the "anti-BRICS". Apart from the predicted rapprochement between the countries of the collective West and the countries of the global South, the Ukrainian crisis can hardly be avoided. At the final press conference in Varanasi, Subramaniam Jaishankar confirmed that, unlike last year's G20 summit, the topic of Ukraine would not be touched upon, and also emphasised the importance of paying attention to developing countries. For his part, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow would refuse to adopt the final declaration if it did not reflect Russia's position. He emphasised that the West is constantly trying to "rewrite the G20 mandate", which was originally aimed at solving the world's financial and economic problems.