Global influence of France
France’s foreign policy relies on the Francophonie (OIF) and diplomatic networks, and since 2010 the country has been actively working on cultural rapprochement and North-South dialogue. The expansion strategy involves not only cultural and linguistic ties, but also large agricultural and industrial companies, as well as scientific institutions. France also relies on its citizens living on the five continents of the world. And while in the early years Paris was able to realize its plans for global influence, by 2024 France’s position as a regional power began to be questioned.
Paris soft power
In 2017, France was declared a world leader in soft power – the use of political values, culture and foreign policy in global development strategies. According to the "Soft Power 30" magazine published by Portland Communications, France surpassed the United Kingdom and the United States, which topped the ranking a year earlier. Paris’ rise from fifth to the first place is attributed to Macron’s election victory as well as the country’s "unrivalled" diplomatic network.
Analysts called this result shocking, given the situation in France just a year earlier. President Hollande’s approval rating was at an all-time low, the nation was reeling from the devastating effects of a series of terrorist attacks, and a wave of far-right populism was gaining momentum. The election of the youngest president in the country’s history, Emmanuel Macron, heralded "a more dynamic and energetic France that will play a leading role in the EU and perhaps show greater global leadership overall". In 2019, when Portland Communications compiled its latest ranking, France rehabilitated itself after last year’s drop to the second place and once again topped the top 30. Much of this is due to the fact that Paris was unrivalled in terms of membership of multilateral and international organizations, France had the highest number of diplomatic cultural representations thanks to the extensive network of the Alliance Française (the cultural and educational NGO). Today, Francophile union consists of 1 072 branches in 146 countries around the world, with around 500 000 students.
France’s rich cultural heritage continues to play a significant role, but its political influence is declining. Paris is ranked 6th in the Global Soft Power Index in 2023, due to a "perceived lack of vision and leadership both in Europe and on the world stage".
France is perceived as a politically stable and well-governed country, and Emmanuel Macron as "a leader who enjoys international respect". All this is crucial for maintaining France’s global reputation, yet the president’s eccentric statements about sending troops to Ukraine have provoked an irritated reaction from the West. According to media reports, NATO commented on the unreasonableness of Macron’s words from an operational security perspective. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also expressed displeasure, saying that there would be no ground troops and soldiers from European states on Ukrainian land. The Kremlin assessed the participation of Western military in the conflict in Ukraine as a step towards a confrontation between Moscow and NATO countries.
Colonial collapse
At its peak in the early 20th century, France owned 8.7% of the landmass, controlling 12 898 000 square kilometers in 72 countries. France held colonies in North America, the Caribbean and India after the successes of Spain and Portugal in the Age of Discovery, rivalling Great Britain.
The first French colonial empire effectively ceased to exist with the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Limited in action on the European continent, Paris resumed an active colonial policy to compensate for its weakened position. In 1895, Paris’s participation in the colonial partition resulted in the formation of French West Africa, a federation of eight colonies: Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Benin and Niger. The federation existed from 1895 to 1960, with Dakar as its capital. As a direct consequence of these long historical processes, the French language has spread all over the territory and today 321 million people speak it, 61.8% of whom live in Africa.
After independence from France in the 1960s, the nascent states modelled their constitutions on the French one, concentrating power in the hands of presidents. However, Paris, in pursuit of economic goals, invited the former colonies to form a monetary union governed by its own Central Bank. Half of its assets were placed in French banks and banknotes were printed on its territory. In parallel, Paris pursued its own political course in African countries, which often supported corrupt governments. This was one of the reasons that explains the democratic crisis in these countries. By 2015, French military operations against African Islamists were conducted simultaneously in 6 countries: in CAR, Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad.
The year 2023 was marked by a significant weakening of France’s influence with all African allies. In February, the French contingent was withdrawn from Burkina Faso, preceded by a coup that brought Captain Ibrahim Traoré to power. At the same time, the new authorities in Burkina Faso announced a partnership with Russia.
In addition, in March, the Government of Mali suspended French media outlets for allegedly broadcasting false reports on the humanitarian situation in the country. A few weeks later, in April, the situation escalated to a final ban by Mali’s regulatory body. In April, a coup d’état deposed Niger’s President Mohammed Bazoum and replaced him with General Abdourahamane Chiani, head of the presidential guard. The French authorities continued their open confrontation in Niamey, the capital of Niger, refusing to recognize the legitimacy of the military government.
In September, Paris refused to issue new visas to students from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, citing deteriorating security relations with the military junta-led governments of West Africa. By the end of 2023, Niger and Burkina Faso announced their withdrawal from the G5 Sahel Joint Force, an alliance created to combat armed groups in the volatile Sahel region. At the same time, the parties, together with Mali, signed a mutual defense pact to help each other fight external threats. France was forced to withdraw 1 500 soldiers stationed in Niger, which was the final point in France’s African agenda after withdrawing from Mali in 2022 and from Burkina Faso in early 2023.
Support from the Russian side in this case was perceived as Moscow’s interference in France’s affairs, although formally neither country is a direct participant in the conflict. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov responded to the EU’s accusations after a visit to the Middle East and Africa in 2023, saying that Paris and other European powers had been committing bloody crimes in Africa for decades. Moscow, in turn, played a decisive role in liberating many countries from colonial oppression and helped establish their statehood, economy and defense capabilities.
The Continental Shift
Recently, the French government has marked a significant strategic shift by reassessing its military presence in Africa and strengthening its position in the Pacific. In part, France’s new aspirations stem from political problems in its former colonies, as well as a desire to assert its influence in a new theatre.
The Indo-Pacific region has become the center of global geopolitics, and consequently Paris, in reorienting its agenda, recognizes the importance of active participation in the division of influence. The Pacific not only hosts vital sea lanes and trade routes, but also a complex security issues ranging from territorial disputes to maritime piracy. By strengthening its presence, France is seeking the support of regional alliances, especially since Paris controls French Polynesia and New Caledonia.
Furthermore, the loss of influence in Mali, Burkina Faso and Central Africa, combined with continued difficulties in Niger, indicate that French military bases have become less effective in a changing political landscape. However, it is worth bearing in mind that France has not completely withdrawn troops from Africa. French military bases remain in Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Senegal and Djibouti. They provide Paris with a military presence and the ability to respond to the regional crises. However, these bases do not guarantee the same influence that France enjoyed in the past.
The reduction of French troops and bases could create a security vacuum in some regions, potentially exacerbating existing conflicts and instability. As France reduces its military presence, African countries will have to strengthen their security and co-operate more closely with regional partners. At the same time, as it did after losing the Napoleonic Wars, France remains limited in its actions in Europe. Macron’s announcement of the deployment of French troops to Ukraine sparked a wave of outrage among EU and NATO officials. Obviously, it is extremely unwise to take such decisions without the authorization of higher structures and alliances, as their members automatically become participants in yet regional conflict. Nevertheless, for the same alliances, France remains a weighty figure when it comes to the Pacific region, where the US plans to organize a new military alliance to contain China.
