Hi-tech: the beginning of the end
The arms race is once again becoming a growth driver for industrial sectors. However, today's focus is on technologies that are beyond the human eye and can turn production chains around. Innovations that are stronger than titanium, more flexible than silicon and more efficient than supercomputers - they are already entering the mainstream and promise to change weaponry, electronics, material synthesis and security architecture beyond recognition.
Quantum superiority
The basic unit of information in digital technologies are bits that take only two values - 0 or 1. Quantum technologies are based on qubits capable of being in a superposition state, i.e. simultaneously being both 0 and 1, as well as in any intermediate state. This allows quantum computers to process huge amounts of data and solve problems that classical supercomputers cannot. However, despite the huge potential, quantum technologies still face a number of problems: qubits are unstable, it is difficult to scale them, and energy costs for their work are huge. However, in potential quantum technologies will give a strategic advantage, so a number of countries and private companies are actively investing in relevant projects and programs.
For example, the European Union launched a large-scale Quantum Flagship program with a budget of $8.4 billion to accelerate the development of quantum technologies and their commercialization. From 2018 to 2021, the project existed in a build-up phase, with €193 million allocated for the work of 236 organizations, including private companies, universities and research institutes. A scientific breakthrough was made in 2021 when a team of scientists from the Delft-based QuTech research institute created a multi-node quantum network between three quantum processors for the first time.
The Flagship project pays special attention to the most promising scalable platforms for quantum computing (superconducting, trapped ion, silicon) in order to create working quantum processors of European manufacture. QuTech specialists are working on new methods of cooling and protecting qubits from environmental influences. In particular, cryogenic systems are being used to reach temperatures close to absolute zero. For this purpose, they use dilution refrigerators operating on a mixture of helium isotopes. To protect qubits from external electromagnetic fields, QuTech develops special shielding chambers made of materials with high conductivity - copper or aluminum.
In March 2024, the researchers announced that they are teaming up with four European quantum companies in the HectoQubit/2 consortium to develop a 100-qubit quantum computer. The contributions from each of the participating startups will have to be seamlessly integrated into a complete quantum computing solution: control electronics supplied by Qblox, quantum chips manufactured by QuantWare, automatic calibration software from Orange Quantum Systems and cryogenic cables from Delft Circuits.
In turn, the US invested $5 billion in the National Quantum Initiative (NQI). Since 2019, when the relevant law signed by Donald Trump came into force, the research budget has been gradually increased. For example, while in 2019, basic research cost the budget almost $300 million, NQI programs amounted to just over $100 million. By 2024, the total budget was already estimated at $1 billion, with funding for the National Quantum Initiative 1.5 times more than basic research. The lion's share of funding is still directed to theoretical areas: basic science, computing, sensing. These areas are allocated $250-300 million annually starting from 2022 for each of the directions. Direct implementation of quantum technologies or development of quantum networks are financed on a residual principle - about $100 million per year for each.
One of the most prominent areas of research is quantum sensing and metrology (QSENS), which applies the principles of quantum mechanics to improve the accuracy of sensors and measurement systems. These include the use of quantum superposition, entanglement, non-classical states of light, and new measurement techniques such as atomic clocks that achieve the highest accuracy through quantum control. Their development is being actively pursued by the U.S. Department of Defense because they are critical for accurate navigation, timing, and target designation, especially in environments where traditional systems may not be available. Quantum sensors are no less promising. They can fundamentally change the approach to reconnaissance, surveillance and navigation. The agency is also developing gyroscopes, accelerometers, magnetometers and other devices that can detect the slightest changes in the environment. This opens up new possibilities for military operations, making them more accurate and effective.
In the 2025 budget request, the Department of Defense emphasizes that investments in quantum technologies are not just spending, but contributing to the future. The goal is not only to accelerate the development and deployment of these technologies, but also to create sustainable production chains and train the professionals who can support and develop these innovations.
The U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is engaged in projects in the field of alternative computing. Their programs are aimed at finding new approaches to creating scalable quantum systems. In addition, projects related to quantum memory, quantum system control, error correction, and the creation of modular quantum computers are funded. Special attention is given to materials for quantum technologies, which can form the basis for quantum sensors, networks and computers. Programs like the Create the Future Independent Research Effort study defects in wide-area materials that could be used for quantum applications. Other projects focus on creating programmable materials, superconducting diodes, and even “hot” qubits that can operate at higher temperatures. The U.S. Department of Defense Laboratory is actively working on heterogeneous networks that combine photonic, atomic and superconducting technologies. The Quantum Augmented Network (QuANET) program is exploring the use of quantum networks to improve existing communications systems. Specialized test sites, such as the Starfire Optical Range in Albuquerque, are being set up to test these technologies.
In October 2023, researchers funded by the U.S. Department of Defense demonstrated a new cubit based on the nuclear spin ytterbium-171. This breakthrough enabled high accuracy in single- and dual-qubit operations, simplifying the error correction process. In November 2023, the researchers presented an innovative approach to control the qubits at higher temperatures. They were able to reduce the effects of crystal lattice vibrations and increase the coherence time of the qubits. The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA), through its Physical Sciences Laboratory (LPS), supports research in quantum computing, sensors, and other advanced technologies. The lab has launched several programs that study superconducting and spin systems, as well as ionic and atomic qubits. Another program, starting in August 2024, aims to improve the speed and accuracy of quantum operations and to develop new methods for controlling qubits. It is also studying defects in solid-state materials that can be used to create highly sensitive magnetometers. These sensors are capable of analyzing materials and circuits at the microscopic level, which opens up new possibilities for solving national security challenges.
The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) is funding high-risk but potentially breakthrough research for “innovative” intelligence. The Entangled Logical Qubits (ELQ) program is the agency's key project to demonstrate a highly accurate logical entangled state and use it to teleport quantum information between logical qubits with error correction. The project involves four teams working with different qubit technologies: superconducting, neutral atoms, and trapped ions.
Another major player in the quantum field is the US Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. It conducts research in the field of hardware for quantum computing and algorithm development in support of stockpile stewardship. The agency is actively working on the development of new methods for obtaining stable isotopes that are directly related to quantum memory and quantum computing, as well as studying the possibility of restocking rubidium-87 used in atomic clocks. Thus, the U.S. today demonstrates a fundamental approach to quantum technologies, combining multidisciplinary research into a single ecosystem with operators and potential consumers of certain developments.
China, a leader in quantum communications, is competing with them. In 2016, the world's first quantum satellite Mo-Tzu was launched from China's Jiuquan Cosmodrome at a cost of about $100 million. The device is part of Beijing's ambitious project to create a global quantum communication network. Its main purpose is to conduct experiments in the field of quantum communication: quantum key distribution (QKD) to create secure communication channels, quantum teleportation and testing the fundamental principles of quantum physics in space.
“Mo-Tzu” set a new world record by transmitting quantum keys between ground stations in China, distant from each other at a distance of over 1200 kilometers. This experiment was an important step in the development of secure communications. In addition, for the first time the device successfully conducted quantum teleportation of photons over a distance of more than 1400 kilometers, which confirmed the possibility of using quantum entanglement over long distances. Another significant achievement was the first ever intercontinental videoconference using quantum encryption, organized jointly by China and Austria. This experiment demonstrated the potential of quantum technologies to create global secure communication networks.
China's breakthrough project is the Juzhang quantum computer, developed by a team of scientists led by Pan Jianwei. It uses photonic technology, which distinguishes it from other qubit-based quantum computers (e.g. IBM or Google). The first prototype, built in 2020, demonstrated quantum superiority by solving a Gaussian boson sampling problem in 200 seconds, whereas a classical supercomputer would take 2.5 billion years to do so. In 2021, an improved version of Jiuzhang 2.0 was unveiled, which showed even better performance. The project proved that photonic technology can be used to build powerful quantum computers, and China has strengthened its position in the race for quantum supremacy, competing with the US and Europe. China intends to become a world leader in quantum technology, and this goal is reflected in the strategic “Plan 2030”. State investment in this sector is estimated at $15 billion.
In recent years, significant steps in the field of quantum technologies have been made in Russia. In 2020, the Russian Quantum Center (RQC) and Rosatom State Corporation unveiled the first domestic quantum processor based on superconducting qubits. In late February 2024, Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev spoke about the state corporation's development of a 50-qubit quantum computer; this year's goal is to increase the quantum computer's performance to 75 qubits. Russia has made significant progress in creating functioning quantum computers on all four key platforms: ions, atoms, photons and superconductors. To date, only three countries - the United States, China and Russia - have demonstrated similar results.
Russia has also achieved notable results in the field of quantum communications. In 2016, Russia's first quantum communication network was launched in Kazan, developed with the participation of RSC and ITMO University and enabling data transmission using quantum cryptography. In 2021, a quantum communication line between two branches of Gazprombank was launched in Moscow, becoming Russia's first commercial project in the field of quantum communication. Russian scientists are also testing the inventions of their Chinese colleagues. In 2023, Russian and Chinese researchers for the first time jointly conducted an experiment using the Chinese quantum communication satellite Mo-Zi. The purpose of the experiment was the quantum transmission of encryption keys at a distance of about 3.8 thousand kilometers, as well as the exchange of messages and images through a secure communication channel. The scheme developed by them is characterized by low data loss and high speed of information transmission, which makes it promising for further application. Data collected in the process of organizing the communication channel will be used for the development of quantum communication technologies, especially in the field of satellite systems, which have not yet found widespread commercial application.
Russian scientists are also actively conducting research in the field of quantum sensors. For example, in 2021, the RQC introduced a prototype of a quantum magnetometer that can be used to search for minerals. Work is also underway to create supertouch quantum clocks that can be used in navigation systems and telecommunications.
Faster. Thinner. Stronger
The introduction of machine learning, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies will reduce the time required to create new materials by dozens of times. The trend of recent years is piezoelectric materials capable of generating electricity under mechanical impact. Last year their market size was estimated at $1.73 billion, and in 10 years it will be $2.76 billion. The reason for this, according to Market Research Future, will be the development of the aviation industry, which in the next 20 years will have to produce 30,880 new aircraft. The development of drones, radars and missile guidance systems, especially relevant in the context of the arms buildup, will also become a growth driver.
The piezoelectric effect was discovered in 1880 by the brothers Pierre and Jacques Curie. They found that quartz, turmaline, and segnet salt create an electric charge if compressed or deformed. Subsequently, they identified the opposite effect: if you supply electricity to such a material, it compresses or expands. In the 20th century, piezoelectric materials found practical application: they were first used in sonars to detect submarines; Quartz resonators, based on piezoelectricity, have become a key element in the creation of precise clocks and radio devices. An important breakthrough was the creation in the 1940s of a synthetic piezoelectric material - lead zirconate titanium (PZT). It has surpassed natural crystals in its characteristics, which has opened new horizons for technology. Thanks to PZT, ultrasound diagnostics in medicine, highly sensitive microphones and sensors for industry have become possible.
Although lead zirconate titanate remains the most popular piezo-ceramic material, its use is limited due to its lead content, which is contrary to environmental norms such as the EU RoHS directive. This stimulates active research in the field of lead-free piezoceramics – materials with the reverse piezoelectric effect. The main areas include three families of materials: ceramics based on titanium, alkaline niobate and vismute perovskite. Polymers with piezoelectric properties are also studied - polyvinylide fluoride (PVDF) and polysulfon.
Asia Pacific leads the piezoelectric materials market, reaching a volume of $0.99 billion and a market share of 68.28% in 2023. This region has emerged as a key center for electronics and consumer goods manufacturing, where countries such as China, Japan, Taiwan, India, and South Korea are aggressively expanding their production capacity.
Another promising material whose market is expected to grow significantly in the next 10 years is perovskites. They are a group of materials with a crystal lattice similar to that of the natural mineral perovskite - calcium titanate (CaTiO₃). For the first time this rather rare for the Earth mineral was discovered in the Urals in the thirties of the nineteenth century and was subsequently delivered to Berlin for further study. In the twentieth century, artificially created materials with a similar crystal structure, now known as perovskites, began to be actively studied. An important breakthrough came in 2009 when Japanese researcher Tsutomu Miyasaka successfully used them in solar cells, kick-starting the active exploration of their potential in photovoltaic technology. They are cheaper to produce, and the material's flexibility opens up new possibilities for integration into portable electronics and building materials. Due to their sensitivity to environmental changes, they are used in gas detection, temperature and light sensing devices. This makes them in demand in monitoring and security systems.
The perovskite market was valued at $384.8 million in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% to reach $1.1 billion by 2033. The growth in demand will be attributed to their application in smart grids and energy storage systems that promote efficient utilization of solar energy and increase the sustainability of power systems.
Saule Technologies from Poland has become one of the first companies to develop and commercialize flexible perovskite-based solar cells. In 2021, the company established its own subsidiary, Solaveni, to focus on the sustainable chemistry of these materials. Over the following years, the product line has expanded to include the company's current key products: aqueous dispersion of SnO2 (tin (IV) oxide, FAI (formamidinium iodide), MAI (methylammonium iodide), PbI2 (lead iodide) and PbBr2 (lead bromide) nanoparticles. In 2023, perovskite-based solar cells manufactured by Saule Technologies were launched into space on a SpaceX Falcon-9 rocket.
Oxford Photovoltaics Limited, a company founded with the support of the University of Oxford, specializes in the development of perovskite photoconverters and solar cells. In 2024, the company announced the first commercial deployment of a perovskite-based tandem solar panel. The first shipment has been sent to a customer in the US, where it will be used at utility scale, reducing the cost of electricity. It is reported that the 72-cell panels, consisting of Oxford PV's proprietary perovskite-based solar cells on silicon, can produce up to 20% more energy than a standard silicon panel.
Japan is playing an active role in tapping the market, seeing a critical need for more electricity by 2050 due to growing demand from semiconductor factories and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled data centers. In May 2024, the government announced the formation of a public-private group to promote the use of perovskite solar cells. The consortium will include 150 public and private organizations, including local governments, that will work together to accelerate the adoption of flexible perovskite solar panels. The group is led by Toshiba and Sekisui Chemical, which are already developing such solar cells and plan to commercialize them next year. Another prominent member is Panasonic, which has a dedicated office for perovskite solar cells.
Seeing the scientific progress and increasing efficiency of tandem solar cells Chinese GCL Technology has announced an investment of $98 million to switch to perovskite technology. According to GCL Perovskite chairman Fan Bin, manufacturers are willing to invest in its development as the material holds great potential for improving energy conversion efficiency. He also noted that in the future, the cost of production using perovskite-silicon technology could be lower than that of traditional crystalline silicon-based technology.
Strength, electrical conductivity and flexibility are qualities that are highly valued in manufacturing and energy processes today. Another material that could be a game changer is graphene. Its market size is projected to reach $5.2 billion in 2032. The material is extremely strong, 200 times stronger than steel, while remaining extremely light. In addition, graphene is capable of stretching up to 20% of its original length without losing its integrity. One of its key advantages is its high electrical conductivity, which opens up a wide range of possibilities for its use in electronics, including the creation of faster and more energy-efficient devices. In addition, graphene has outstanding thermal conductivity, surpassing even diamond, making it an excellent material for heat dissipation in a variety of applications.
In fact, graphene is the thinnest material in the world and is a layer of carbon one atom thick. In theory, such materials should not exist, but the experiments of Andrei Geim and Konstantin Novoselov proved the opposite, for which the scientists received the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2010. Due to its unique properties, graphene is capable of revolutionizing the aerospace, defense and energy industries.
Key graphene producers are concentrated in the US and the UK, but its commercial application is still limited to smartphone and laptop chargers or marketing offers such as graphene additives in bicycle tires or tennis rackets. Asia Pacific is projected to play an active role in the development of the graphene market, capturing a share of 34% in 2023. For instance, in January 2025, The Advanced Carbons Company (TACC), a subsidiary of HEG, an Indian holding company that manufactures graphite electrodes, entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ceylon Graphene Technologies (CGT) of Sri Lanka, which produces graphite and graphene-based materials. One of the key aspects of the agreement will be the establishment of a state-of-the-art graphene manufacturing facility at TACC in India. This plant will enable large-scale production, providing markets with innovative graphene products.
Industry: reset
Technology development in the coming decades will be driven by several key areas, including quantum developments, piezoelectric materials, perovskites, and graphene. Each has the potential to revolutionize economics, energy, medicine, and defense.
Quantum technologies, including quantum computing, communications, and sensors, will be one of the most important areas defining the future security architecture. For example, a quantum computer with 20 million qubits can break RSA-2048 encryption in just 8 hours. This compromises the protection of information that is now considered secure. Attackers can already use a “store now, decrypt later” strategy to intercept encrypted data and decrypt it in the future using quantum technologies.
Access to quantum computers through cloud services could also be used for unethical purposes, such as data hacking or the development of new weapons. In addition, quantum sensors, due to their high sensitivity, can be used for surveillance and privacy violations, posing additional risks to personal and corporate security. Even quantum key distribution (QKD), which is considered one of the most secure methods of data transmission, is not completely secure. It can be vulnerable to hardware attacks such as photon source tampering or detector manipulation. These vulnerabilities underscore the need to develop new security techniques and continuously improve existing technologies to counter potential threats.
The leaders of the technological race - the United States and China - are actively investing in quantum research and development. And while Washington is focused on computing and sensors, Beijing is betting on quantum communication. These technologies, on the one hand, will make it possible to create ultra-secure communication systems, improve the accuracy of navigation and intelligence, and accelerate the development of new materials and medicines. On the other hand, they are equally capable of posing a threat to national security. It is important to realize that it is the real application and implementation of quantum technologies that will determine the future of the entire industry. Adaptation of quantum computing to solve specific industrial and social problems will become a key task, and the countries that are actively implementing quantum technologies today will take the leading positions in the future. Analyzing the global landscape of quantum development, we can see that in the United States the leading players are IT giants and startups, while in China and Europe the leading role belongs to universities and research centers. In Russia, the main focus is on industrial corporations (Rosatom), which have the necessary resources to implement quantum solutions in their operations. This opens a unique opportunity for the country to become one of the pioneers in the application of quantum computing in the real economy.
Already today there is an impressive list of new materials that could revolutionize human perceptions of strength or efficiency. For example, graphene, being the thinnest material, is still the strongest. The development of this technology can put an end to the use of silicon, which is the basis for the microchips of most modern electronic devices. It conducts electricity better, dissipates heat more efficiently, and is flexible, which opens up new frontiers in the production of electronics. Nevertheless, replacing silicon at this stage remains a complex and labor-intensive process, because graphene is a material with a zero forbidden zone. That is, while processors on silicon can switch between on and off states, in graphene electrons can move freely even at minimal voltage.
Solving this problem will be the key to reorganizing the entire technological process as well as production chains. If now the main suppliers of silicon are China, Brazil, Norway, France and the USA, with graphene only China, the USA and Canada can remain in the lead. Given the tremendous interest that India is showing in the research and production of graphene materials, it can be assumed that Southeast Asia will be at the forefront of new technologies.
Development in piezoelectric materials and perovskites will also be concentrated here. The Asia-Pacific region, including China, Japan and South Korea, is already leading the way in piezoelectrics, thanks to a strong electronics industry and investment in research. Piezoelectrics are capable of harvesting energy from the environment - from vibrations, movements or even sound waves - paving the way for autonomous devices that do not require batteries or recharging. As in the case of graphene, devices based on piezoelectric materials can be miniaturized and flexible. All of this not only opens up new room for creativity, but also creates a certain vulnerability. The use of new materials in guidance systems, radars, drones, at least in the early stages, will not be reciprocated.
We should be less optimistic about the use of perovskites in the energy sector. Japan's concern about this technology is obvious and understandable: electricity consumption is growing, and there are no more ways to produce it. In such a case, certain tricks that can increase the efficiency of solar panels seem appropriate. But compared to traditional ways of generating energy, perovskite solar cells are unlikely to make a significant difference. Another aspect is that perovskites can be incorporated into electronics, providing them with additional energy without being plugged into battery systems. This in turn puts nations in the challenge of unmanned aerial vehicles that do not need to be charged. Reconnaissance and targeting could then be greatly improved.
On the one hand, such developments will open a so-called window of opportunity, when the development of materials and equipment will become faster, and their exploitation will become cheaper and more efficient. On the other hand, the question remains as to how exactly big politics and the defense industry will react: whether they will be as enthusiastic about adopting new technologies and whether they will be able to develop countermeasures just as quickly. It all depends on the ability of countries and companies to invest in research, solve current problems and innovate quickly.
