International competition in underwater digital infrastructure
Submarine cable infrastructure (SCI) is one of the key pillars of the modern information or post-industrial society. At the core of SCI, literally and figuratively, are fiber optic cables that carry telecommunication signals and data across oceans and seas. According to analytical reports, more than 95% of global data travels through undersea cables, making control of them a priority for states seeking to consolidate their influence in the world (the United States) or expand it (China).
Submarine digital infrastructure, its functions and importance
According to TeleGeography, a company specialising in telecommunications market analysis, there are approximately 600 cables in operation worldwide, with a total length of more than 1.2 million kilometres. Cables are the backbone of global telecommunications and the Internet, as user data (such as email, cloud drives and application data) is stored in data centres around the world, and submarine cables connect these centres. Over the next 10 years, the need for increased SCI capacity will grow, driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution and the digitalisation of the global economy.
Submarine cables serve as information superhighways, enabling high-speed connectivity (5G), cloud computing and, most importantly, the seamless transmission of everything from financial transactions to intelligence and diplomatic communications. The US military uses submarine cable networks to transmit data from combat zones to commanders in Washington. Not surprisingly, it is the US that is trying to keep competitors out of the SCI market, particularly China.
Despite the importance of SCI for global data exchange, this industry represents a so-called ‘grey area’ in international law. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea currently provides only minimal protection for submarine cables. And the United States is not a party to the Convention at all, emphasising its declaratory nature.
The SCI market in Western countries
At first glance, it may seem that the submarine cable market is owned exclusively by private companies. Although analyst reports name more than 120 companies owning SCI, the lion's share of the market (98%) is actually divided between four monopoly companies, of which three are from Western countries. As of 2023, the Western companies (US SubCom, France's Alcatel Submarine Networks (ASN), and Japan's Nippon Electric Company (NEC)) controlled 87% of the market. The only non-Western company, HMN Technologies from China, was able to secure 11% of the SCI market in a relatively short period of time.
Commercial submarine cables may be owned by a single company or a consortium of companies. These companies may lease the capacity of their cables to other companies, countries or third parties. For example, the major US big tech companies - Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft - are both owners and at the same time tenants of about 50 per cent of all global SCI bandwidth.
A deeper analysis allows us to conclude that it is the collective West, represented by the United States, that controls the majority of the SCI, and the escalating contradictions between the United States and China make the SCI another arena of clashes for global influence and resources.
Telecom, an interagency committee created by President Donald Trump's executive order, has been operating in the United States since 2020. Telecom's task is to protect US telecommunications networks from spies and cyberattacks, which primarily include attacks from China. The committee also promotes US interests in the SCI market by driving competing Chinese companies out of it. This is accomplished by bribing officials in U.S. dependent countries or through direct threats.
Telecom is under the jurisdiction of the Department of Justice's (DOJ) National Security Division. This division is headed by Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen, nominated for the position by President Joe Biden in May 2021. Olsen previously served in various intelligence positions.
Key Western SCI projects (from 2020 onwards)
The unifying feature of all Western, more specifically US, SCI projects is the displacement of Chinese companies from participating in these projects through the efforts of the US government and Telecom directly. This allows the US to 1) prevent Chinese submarine cables from connecting to its submarine infrastructure, and 2) consolidate and expand its SCI network. It is no secret that the US uses SCI for wiretapping and interception as well.
1) SeaMeWe-6: From Singapore to France
The largest Western SCI project, costing over $600 million, is being implemented by SubCom (USA) since 2022. The cable is known as South East Asia-Middle East-Western Europe 6, or SeaMeWe-6 for short. It will connect dozens of countries, travelling from Singapore to France, crossing three seas and the Indian Ocean along the way. It is scheduled for completion in 2025. The cable will carry data from Asia to Europe and the US via Africa and the Middle East. SeaMeWe-6 will operate in ultra high-speed mode (the design capacity is 126 Tbit/s), and the cable length will exceed 19,000 kilometres.
2) Pacific SCI
In 2022, Concerned about the rise of China, as well as possible sabotage by the PRC against the SCI that runs off the coast of Taiwan, Japan and Australia, with strong US support, announced that they would co-finance the construction of a SCI system known as the East Micronesia Cable. It will connect US satellite countries in the Pacific (Philippines, Micronesia, Nauru, Kiribati, etc.). The submarine cable system is due to be completed in 2025.
3) Meta and Google's SCI
In 2021, Meta and Google announced plans to lay two huge undersea cables. The aim is to create a SCI that will connect the US West Coast to Singapore and Indonesia - major markets for US big tech companies and future cloud computing centres. The Echo and Bifrost trans-Pacific cables are expected to increase bandwidth between the regions by 70 per cent and improve internet reliability.
China's competition with Western countries in the field of SCI
The development of China's SCI should be seen as part of China's efforts to extend its economic influence in the world. Since the 2010s, Beijing has sought to become the world's dominant producer of advanced technologies, be it submarines, semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, or UAVs. China is increasingly pushing back against US influence around the world with trade, arms and infrastructure deals.
In 2015, China launched its Digital Silk Road strategy, which aims to take control of 60% of the fibre optic cable market through joint projects with developing countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. As part of the strategy, the Chinese government is supporting Chinese exporters, including large companies like Huawei, and their expansion into overseas markets.
Thanks to generous subsidies and tax incentives from the Chinese government, Chinese telecoms companies and cable manufacturers have been able to gain a foothold in emerging markets. A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) claims that since 2020, Beijing has completed 11 submarine cable projects in Indonesia, seven in South Korea and six in the UAE.
‘The Digital Silk Road,’ as well as the New Silk Road, of course, could not help but meet U.S. opposition. Over the past four years, the United States has intervened in six private submarine cable deals in the Asia-Pacific region to prevent China from winning. This prevented China's HMN Technologies and its consortium from winning contracts for the projects.
HMN Tech has long been a target of the US government's scrutiny. In 2020, HMN Tech ‘split off’ from Huawei Technologies, which is partially under U.S. sanctions for industrial espionage.
According to the Submarine Almanac 2023 report, HMN Technologies is currently involved in 16 SCI paving projects totalling $1.6bn across 27 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Since 2010, HMN Technologies has implemented 108 projects to lay 60,000 kilometres of submarine cable, which is about one and a half times the distance around the Earth at the equator.
Russia's role in the international SCI market
Due to the fact that Russia is a predominantly continental power, SCI has not been of significant interest to Russian strategists for a long time. The situation began to change in the late 2010s. In 2020, by presidential decree, Russia launched a project to lay the SCI in the Arctic. The fibre-optic communication line (FOCL), dubbed the Polar Express, will run along the Arctic seabed of the Arctic Ocean between Murmansk and Vladivostok with exit points along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The advantages of the FOCL include immunity to electromagnetic interference and high capacity.
The Polar Express will have a length of over 13,000 kilometres and a capacity of 104 Tbt/sec. The Arctic SCI is expected to be launched in 2028. In total, over the 2020-2028 period, the cost of implementing FOCL in the Arctic will be around RUB 65bn.
A recent CSIS report, released in August 2024, also mentions potential sabotage that Russia and China plan to carry out against Western submarine cables. As a result, the report argues, the U.S. and allies must strengthen control over SCI, which is essentially what current U.S. policy is aimed at.
The CSIS report pays special attention to Russia and its ability to organise large-scale sabotage of Western SCIs. Because Russia does not have an extensive SCI network, Russia is protected from foreign sabotage of submarine cables, but it can still conduct provocations and sabotage against Western submarine systems. Western officials are concerned about the activity of specialised Russian submarines, close to cables important to the US.
At the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, the US and satellite countries signed a joint statement on the need to secure undersea cables. In fact, this statement is the basis for excluding China from the global supply chain for SCI. China, for its part, has already denounced the US policy, accusing the US authorities of politicising SCI and using SCI as a future weapon against China. In all likelihood, the confrontation in the SCI sphere will only increase, and the cables that used to connect countries and continents will soon run along the seabed based on purely block principles.
