Japan: The hidden dragon
It is generally believed that after the defeat in World War II, the Japanese occupy secondary positions in the geopolitical arena. However, with a careful approach, it becomes obvious that Tokyo can play a significant role in the balance of power in the Pacific Ocean in the near future. The decision taken not so long ago by the Japanese to be responsible for their own security, rather than trusting it to the United States, will lead to an inevitable build-up of the country's military and technical potential.
The archipelago State
Japan is the easternmost island archipelago state in Eurasia. Since the country actually consists of islands off the coast of mainland Asia, it has been isolated from the rest of the world for many years. The Sakoku policy was put to an end in 1853 by U.S. Navy officer Matthew K. Perry, landing an armed landing on the shores of Japan and fully implementing the plans of Portugal and Spain for the commercial use of local ports. The Japanese realized that they were unable to defend their independence in the face of military pressure and economic exploitation.
Under the threat of colonization, Emperor Mutsuhito declared an era of enlightened rule. Japan has embarked on the path of industrial development, economic modernization and technological progress. The turn from a feudal system to a modern industrial nation-state has significantly affected all structures of society, including international relations. The main motive was the cancellation of illegal treaties imposed by the West, which set low fixed tariffs on foreign imports, granted a monopoly on foreign trade to foreigners, and also exempted them from Japanese jurisdiction. Such conditions humiliated the nation and placed Japan in the category of uncivilized countries. The emphasis in this confrontation was on the development of education, industry and the build-up of military power.
Over the next thirty years, the Japanese armed forces defeated China in the First Sino-Japanese War, conquering Taiwan and forcing Beijing to recognize Korean independence. In the Russian-Japanese War, they defeated tsarist Russia and gained control of southern Sakhalin, Korea and southern Manchuria. Inspired by the victories, the Japanese state adopted an expansionist strategy aimed at creating a "Sphere of shared Prosperity of Greater East Asia" under the hegemony of Tokyo.
The project, implemented during the Second World War, provided for direct control over most of the South‒East Asia, including the strategically important Singapore, the Philippine Archipelago and the Strait of Malacca, most of the coast of China and the territories of the Soviet Union in the Far East. As part of its military campaign in the Pacific, Japanese propaganda appealed with the slogans "Asia for Asians", declared the need to liberate Asian colonies from the control of Western powers and claimed that "with the help of Japan, China and Manchukuo, there will be world peace."
In November 1943, a conference was organized in Tokyo with the participation of the Prime Minister of the Manchurian Empire, the President of the Republic of China, the Head of State of Burma, the head of the Provisional Government of Free India, the President of the Republic of the Philippines and the Envoy of the Kingdom of Thailand. In China and Manchuria, Japan established puppet regimes that lasted until the end of World War II. Several islands and a small territory in the east of mainland India, where a provisional government was established with the help of the Japanese, were considered as industrial sites for oil production, the purchase of which was embargoed by the United States after the occupation of Indochina. However, tankers were attacked by the US Navy, as a result of which oil had to be exported from Indonesia. Thailand, where Japanese troops entered in 1941, became a port for the invasion of Burma. Tokyo needed the Philippine Islands to create an economic base for the "Sphere of Shared Prosperity", namely as a supplier of agricultural products.
Nevertheless, the submarines from Pearl Harbor, tightening the blockade of the Japanese islands, the destruction of the fleet and aviation actually made it impossible to exploit new territories - Tokyo's resources were depleted. The atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as the subsequent Soviet intervention, forced Japan to capitulate. In 1945, the period of American occupation began. The Supreme Command of the Allied Powers (SCAP) disbanded the Japanese army and banned former military officers from holding senior positions in the new government. Reforms were carried out that deprived wealthy Japanese landowners and entrepreneurs of power, as well as the opportunity to sponsor supporters of the expansionism of the 1930s. In 1947, the Allies dictated a new constitution to the leaders of Japan, which lowered the status of the emperor, deprived him of political control, gave more power to parliament and prohibited the conduct of war, which included the elimination of all non-defensive armed forces.
The geopolitical situation
Ten years before the First World War, in 1904, Oxford University professor Halford J. Mackinder formulated the concept of the "Middle Earth" - the axial region of world politics in a report to the Royal Geographical Society. This is a massive northeastern part of Eurasia, almost completely repeating the contours of the Russian Empire, rich in natural resources and inaccessible to maritime powers. It is here, according to Mackinder, that the springboard for control over the whole world is located. The State controlling this territory can close the mainland to island countries and isolate them from each other. According to the professor, Russia, China or Germany could have done this.
By the time this concept was formed, Russia and France had already concluded a military alliance in opposition to Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy. In 1907, Britain would join the Entente, and 7 years later the First World War would begin, in which Japan would play the role of Russia's Far Eastern rear. This will be influenced, among other things, by the military alliance concluded between London and Tokyo, initially aimed at curbing Russian expansion while preserving the territorial integrity of China and Korea. However, during the war, Japan seized German possessions in China and created threats to Chinese autonomy by making Twenty-one demands to Beijing. According to them, the Chinese were obliged to hire Japanese as advisers on political, financial and military issues, give ownership of land to Japanese temples, hospitals and schools, and consult with Japanese officials on the development of railways, mines and ports. The ultimatum was perceived by the European powers as a manifestation of aggression, and the United States and Britain sent diplomatic notes to Tokyo. China entered World War I on the side of the Entente in the hope that Europe would hold back the Japanese onslaught, but following the Versailles conference, the demands of the Chinese delegation were rejected.
During these years, the focus of international politics began to shift from imperial expansion to competitive rivalry between European powers. At the same time, much of the non-Western world, including the Korean Peninsula and China, was in a state of chaos, and Japan remained the only major power in East Asia.
At the end of World War II, Nicholas Speakman, a professor of international relations at Yale University, attributed Japan to the so-called Rimland. These are the countries forming the arc of the coastal strip and surrounding the Heartland from the west, south and southeast. The father of the concept of "containment" argued that Japan has been threatened throughout its history by the natural expansionism of China and Russia. This zone is extremely vulnerable to attack from both sea and land, which is why constant conflicts between maritime and continental powers are unfolding here. Therefore, the "arc earth" should be subject to "integrated control". According to Speakman's maxim, whoever controls Rimland controls Eurasia, and whoever controls Eurasia controls the world. Based on this theory, during the Cold War, the United States deployed a network of military bases around the USSR, taking responsibility for the defense of Japan. The obligations were settled with the help of a special security treaty, which for many years formed the basis of Japan's foreign policy.
From theory to practice
At the end of 2022, the administration of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida published three new strategic documents: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Strengthening Plan. First of all, the NSC emphasizes that the responsibility for protecting Japan lies with Japan itself. Her Government "will boldly respond to the ever-changing environment, resolutely implementing the necessary reforms and strengthening its capabilities and role in the field of national security." The document indicates that since 2013, the center of gravity of world power has shifted to the Indo-Pacific region. This trend will continue in the long term, which will have historical consequences for the international community.
China is referred to in the Strategy as "threat No. 1" because it has the goal of "the great rebirth of the Chinese nation." Beijing is constantly increasing its defense spending, rapidly increasing its military power, including nuclear and missile capabilities, using force in the East and South China Seas, invading territorial waters and airspace around the Senkaku Islands. In addition, China is strengthening strategic ties with Russia, which is described in the document as an aggressor that invaded the territory of Ukraine. The document says that Moscow is increasing its weapons in the Northern Territories, which are an integral part of Japan. Obviously, we are talking about the islands of Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and the Habomai island group in the Kuril Islands. The strategy states that the activation of forces in the Sea of Okhotsk is presumably related to the activities of nuclear submarines, which are an important part of Russia's strategic nuclear forces.
In addition, according to Japanese estimates, North Korea is making rapid progress in the development of its missile technologies, as exemplified by the launch of intercontinental missiles. The DPRK intends to increase its nuclear potential as quickly as possible, both in qualitative and quantitative terms, which poses a direct threat to Japan's security. Tokyo plans to contain it with the help of defense capabilities, as well as using advanced technologies accumulated over the years in the public and private sectors, "not limited to their traditional understanding." Tokyo considers the alliance of Japan, the United States, Australia and India to be the guarantor of security in the region. Realizing the strategic and geopolitical value of South Korea and taking into account North Korea's actions against its neighbor, Japan plans to strengthen the coordination of the triple alliance with the United States and the ROK. The Japanese do not refuse to cooperate with China, but gradually form a position more and more clearly regarding the rebellious Taiwan. The strategy talks about Tokyo's hopes for a peaceful settlement of disputes, as Taiwan is an important partner and friend with whom they share common values. These words are met with irritation in Beijing, realizing that behind the "peaceful settlement of disputes" there is support for the island's independence as a deterrent to China in the Asia-Pacific region.
To address these and other issues, Japan plans to deploy underwater protection equipment, create autonomous underwater robots or underwater drones. To prevent an attack, it is necessary to destroy the invading forces from a long distance, so the Japanese intend to develop "autonomous defense capability" and "integrated air defense missiles." Human resources will also be increased: if 60 thousand people are currently in reserve, then in the near future their number will be relatively higher due to the recruitment of women and young people.
Plans to strengthen the defense capability are calculated by the Japanese administration for the next 10 years. Given China's growing power in the region, its cooperation with Russia, North Korea's provocations and the vulnerable position of Tokyo's closest partners - South Korea and Taiwan - there is no reason to expect that these plans will not be fulfilled. Japan, with the United States as its allies, which at the moment are not able to provide partners with sufficient weapons, is forced to realize its responsibility for its own security for the first time in the last 80 years. Tokyo recognizes that it is the relationship with China that will affect the situation in the region, and in anticipation of peace, they are preparing for war.