Managed Chaos in the Middle East
The US President accused Iran of coordinating the Houthi attacks and threatened Tehran with dire consequences. Washington is actively building up its military forces near the country, preparing a full-scale proxy war. Over the past 10 years, the White House's policy towards Iran has changed repeatedly, but the goal of containment has remained unchanged. Today, unlike in previous years, the US has to compare the "interests of the nation" with the business ambitions of its allies in the region, in Trump's entourage, as well as with the growing influence of China, which is "entangling" both friends and foes of the US in a network of expensive infrastructure projects.
From Balance to Escalation
Since Donald Trump came to power in 2017, US foreign policy towards Iran has undergone significant changes. While his predecessor Barack Obama had relied on diplomacy, signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, Trump has taken a tougher stance. The JCPOA, signed under Obama, was intended to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. However, Trump has called the agreement “the worst deal in history,” arguing that it fails to address key issues such as control over Iran’s missile program and its activities in the Middle East.
Influenced by conservative advisers including John Bolton, as well as US allies in the region – Israel and Saudi Arabia – Trump announced the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018. His administration has since reimposed and tightened sanctions on Iran, imposing restrictions on Iranian oil exports. These measures have put severe pressure on Iran's economy, causing it to shrink significantly. These policies have led to an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. In 2019, there were attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, as well as the downing of an American RQ-4A Global Hawk BAMS-D drone. The conflict culminated in the January 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force. The Pentagon said the US carried out the strikes on orders from President Donald Trump. This followed anti-American protests in Baghdad, which Washington linked to pro-Iranian forces. According to the US Department of Defense, Qasem Soleimani organized attacks on international coalition bases in Iraq, including the attacks on the K-1 air base on December 27, 2020.
With the advent of Joe Biden in 2021, the US position on Iran has changed again. During the election campaign, Biden criticized Trump's decision to withdraw from the JCPOA and promised to return the United States to the agreement if Iran complied with its obligations. Since 2021, the countries have begun indirect talks in Vienna, mediated by the JCPOA member states. The main topic was the lifting of sanctions on Iran in exchange for its return to restrictions on its nuclear program. However, despite its willingness to engage in dialogue, the Biden administration has maintained most of the restrictions imposed under Trump, using them as leverage. This decision has angered the Iranian side, which insisted on a complete lifting of the embargo before returning to compliance with the JCPOA. Nevertheless, under the Biden administration, Iran has been able to increase oil exports, giving it an economic respite.
According to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), Iran's oil exports in 2024 were expected to reach 587 million barrels, up 10.75% from 530 million barrels in 2023.
This became one of the reasons for criticism of Biden's decisions by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump. He called the demonstrated approach to Iran "weak", "accommodating" and insisted on maximum pressure on Tehran, including maintaining and strengthening sanctions. One of the key elements of Trump's rhetoric was criticism of the JCPOA. The presidential candidate argued that the Biden administration, by trying to return to the JCPOA, was repeating Obama's mistakes and thereby strengthening Iran's position in the Middle East. He stated that restrictions on oil exports and access to the international financial system were the most effective tools for putting pressure on Tehran. Trump also recalled the elimination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, calling this step necessary to protect American interests.
In his election campaign, Trump paid special attention to key US partners in the Middle East - Israel and Saudi Arabia. He considered it necessary to strengthen military and political cooperation with allies to counter Iran's destabilizing activities in the region. After winning the presidential election, in early March 2025, the Trump administration announced a "renewed sanctions policy" against Iran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington intends to "shut down Iran's oil sector," weaken its defense industry, and deprive it of access to the international financial system. The main goal is to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.
One of the key tools of the new strategy, according to Reuters, could be stopping and inspecting Iranian oil tankers in international waters. This will create a "fear effect" among buyers of Iranian oil, slowing down its exports. The United States plans to involve allies in these actions as part of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) program, launched by George W. Bush. In addition, the United States is considering increasing oil supplies from Iraqi Kurdistan to stabilize world prices and weaken Iran's position. However, this plan is complicated by the tense relations between the Kurdish region and the central government of Iraq. Despite pressure, Iran refuses to negotiate under duress. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran will not enter into dialogue even if Russia acts as a mediator. Washington, however, acknowledges that sanctions have their limits of effectiveness.
At the same time, the White House is developing alternative scenarios in which Iran will be held hostage to national interests in the region. On March 15, 2025, Donald Trump announced the start of US military operations against the Yemeni Houthis, giving the corresponding order to the US military. According to him, this decision was made in response to the "ongoing acts of piracy, violence and terrorism" that the Houthis commit against US and other ships, as well as against aircraft and drones. US National Security Advisor Mike Walz has suggested that the Pentagon could target Iranian infrastructure not related to Ansar Allah, since, according to him, Tehran is responsible for supporting the Houthis, including attacks on American ships and global trade.
At the same time, official Tehran denies its ties to the paramilitary group. Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Amir Saeed Iravani stressed that Tehran has always strictly complied with the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions concerning Yemen. He stated that the Iranian state has never supplied weapons to the Houthi groups or interfered in their activities, fully fulfilling its international obligations. Nevertheless, Trump said on his social network that since the start of the military operation in Yemen, the United States will consider every Houthi attack a threat from Iran.
According to AP News, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has given an order that could significantly change the balance of power in the Middle East. The US Navy's carrier strike group (CSG) led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) (Carrier Strike Group One, CSG-1), which was in the Indo-Pacific region, was ordered to change course and head for the shores of the Middle East. CSG-1 includes the Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Princeton (CG-59), as well as the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Sterett (DDG-104) and USS William P. Lawrence (DDG-110). These ships, equipped with advanced air defense systems and strike missiles, are capable of significantly increasing the US military presence in the region.
At the same time, Defense Minister Hegseth decided to extend the mission of the US Navy carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), which is currently in the northern part of the Red Sea. This decision indicates the growing tension in the region and Washington’s readiness to escalate if the situation requires it. Such steps may be related to US attempts to increase pressure on Iran and its allies, including the Yemeni Houthis. Carrier groups equipped with F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters, AEGIS missile defense systems and Tomahawk cruise missiles are capable of not only blocking key sea lanes, but also delivering high-precision strikes on ground targets.
Middle East Arbiter
After the end of World War II, the influence of the United States of America on the geopolitical balance of the Middle East increased significantly. Washington began to actively interfere in local processes, pursuing its own strategic goals, including ensuring access to oil and countering the expansion of the Soviet Union.
The proclamation of the State of Israel in 1948 became the starting point for a long-term Arab-Israeli confrontation. The United States, having supported Israel, strengthened its position in the region, but this caused a sharp reaction from Arab countries, which led to long-term tensions. One of the key moments in this confrontation was the Suez Crisis of 1956, when the conflict between Egypt, Israel, Great Britain and France for control of the Suez Canal forced the United States to act as an arbitrator, emphasizing its growing influence in the Middle East.
In 1967, during the Six-Day War, Israel defeated a coalition of Arab states including Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. This resulted in Israel's occupation of the West Bank, Gaza, Golan Heights, and Sinai Peninsula. US support in this conflict further strengthened the alliance between the two countries. However, in 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, Egypt and Syria attempted to regain their lost territories but were defeated. The US played a major role in resolving this conflict, which further strengthened its position as a key mediator.
The turning point in regional politics was the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. The overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who had long been an ally of the West, and the establishment of the theocratic regime of Ayatollah Khomeini led to a breakdown in relations between Iran and the US. The new Iranian regime became one of the main opponents of American influence in the Middle East, which significantly changed the balance of power in the region and laid the foundation for future conflicts.
The 1980s and 1990s were a period of large-scale conflicts in the Middle East, in which the United States played a key role. The Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988) was the first major clash where the interests of the superpowers intersected with the ambitions of regional players. Iraq, led by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, ruled by a new theocratic regime, fought for dominance in the region. The United States, fearing the rise of Iran, supported Iraq by supplying it with weapons and intelligence. However, this strategy later turned against the Americans themselves when Iraq began to threaten Washington's interests.
In 1990, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, which led to the Gulf War (1990–1991). The United States led an international coalition that liberated Kuwait and dealt a crushing blow to the Iraqi army. This operation not only strengthened the US military presence in the region, but also demonstrated its ability to form global alliances to protect its interests.
The beginning of the 21st century was marked by new challenges. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States launched a war in Afghanistan against al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime. This marked the beginning of a long-term US military presence in the region that lasted two decades. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq under the pretext of destroying weapons of mass destruction and overthrowing the regime of Saddam Hussein. However, this war destabilized Iraq, creating a power vacuum that was later filled by radical groups, including ISIS. During this period, the United States also actively supported Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria, seeing them as allies in the fight against terrorism. However, their actions often conflicted with the interests of other regional players, such as Turkey, which viewed the Kurds as a threat to its national security.
The 2010s were a time of profound upheaval in the Middle East, sparked by a wave of protests known as the Arab Spring. Beginning in Tunisia in 2010, the uprisings quickly spread to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and other countries. The United States supported some of these movements, such as in Egypt and Libya, where the Mubarak and Gaddafi regimes were overthrown. However, Washington’s actions were often inconsistent, creating additional complications.
The protests against Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in 2011 escalated into a full-scale civil war, with external players joining in. The United States supported the moderate opposition and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which played a key role in the fight against ISIS. But these actions provoked sharp discontent in Turkey, which saw the Kurds as a terrorist threat. Iran, in turn, took advantage of the chaos to strengthen its position in the region. Tehran actively supported the Assad regime, as well as Shiite groups in Iraq, Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Yemen (the Houthis), which form the so-called axis of resistance. This led to increased tensions between Iran and the United States, as well as their allies - Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The 2020s marked a change in the U.S. strategy in the Middle East. The Joe Biden administration has begun to reduce its direct military presence in the region, completing the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021. This decision has sparked criticism from Washington’s allies, as it has led to the rapid seizure of power by the Taliban and the deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the country. At the same time, the United States focused on diplomatic initiatives. One of the key achievements was the conclusion of the “Abraham Agreements” in 2020, which normalized relations between Israel and a number of Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. These agreements strengthened Israel’s position in the region and created a new form of cooperation aimed at deterring Iran. Tehran, which has long sought to isolate Israel, faces a new regional alliance that includes the UAE, Bahrain and other countries.
These years have seen a new escalation. One of the key events was the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the architect of Iranian influence in the region, whose death dealt a blow to Iran’s strategy. Tel Aviv, although not directly involved in the operation, perceived it as a victory in the fight against Iranian expansion. However, Iran’s response was not long in coming: Tehran increased support for its allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Cyberwarfare and covert operations have become another front in the confrontation. Israel has been repeatedly accused of attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the uranium enrichment center in Natanz. Iran, in turn, has stepped up cyberattacks on Israeli infrastructure, trying to damage the country’s economy and security.
Iran and Israel are divided by ideological hostility: Tehran, guided by the principles of the Islamic revolution, denies Israel’s right to exist, calling it an “illegitimate entity,” while Israel views Iran as an existential threat. Tel Aviv believes that Tehran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, which is unacceptable for the security of the Jewish state. Iran actively uses its allies, sometimes called its proxy groups – Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis – to pressure Israel. Finally, regional rivalry plays an important role: both countries are fighting for dominance in the Middle East, with Iran seeking to create a “Shiite corridor” from Tehran to the Mediterranean, while Israel, in alliance with Arab countries, is trying to contain this expansion. After the capture of almost all of Syria by opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Tehran not only lost its key ally, but also found itself cut off from its main partners. These aspects make the confrontation between Israel and Iran multidimensional and extremely explosive, affecting the interests of not only the two countries, but the entire region.
Judging by how the US position on Iran changed depending on the policy of the elected leader, it is clear that Saudi Arabia responded to the steps taken by the American presidents situationally. On the one hand, Riyadh takes the side of its Western ally, but on the other hand, the awareness of its own vulnerability, especially against the background of the lack of US support, leads to the understanding that an escalation in the region entails financial costs and infrastructure damage. After the drone and missile attack carried out by Iran's allies on Saudi oil facilities in mid-September 2019, Riyadh took a course on improving relations with Iran, which is seen as the key to regional stability. The Saudis are seeking to maintain neutrality and to shape their security architecture around the “two-state” principle, a concept enshrined in UN Security Council Resolution 242.
A shadow is cast on regional stability and the balance of power by China, which has gradually supplanted the United States as Riyadh’s leading economic partner. The Chinese company Sinopec Oilfield Service is expanding the Saudis’ gas transportation system, and the countries are actively cooperating in agriculture, minerals, logistics, healthcare, and technology. The White House is taking a dim view of Washington’s rapprochement with its geopolitical adversary, which means Saudi Arabia is forced to balance between the heavyweights.
In the Fires of War
The Middle East’s approach to warfare is changing the usual patterns. We are already seeing the emergence of high-tech, long-range UAVs, such as Iran’s Shahed drones. Unlike traditional weapons, drones are inexpensive: they are easy to acquire, upgrade, repurpose, or repair if damaged. For paramilitary groups, drones have long been a familiar tool. Organizations such as the Taliban, Boko Haram, the Houthis, and ISIS actively use drones in combat operations. For example, the Houthis have demonstrated that drones can be incredibly accurate and effective even over vast distances. In July 2024, their drone flew more than 2,600 kilometers from Yemen to strike Tel Aviv, spending about 16 hours in the air.
The growing drone threat requires Washington to invest more in air defense systems and cybersecurity, which will likely increase the burden on the military budget. The Houthi drone technology could push Israel to strengthen its defense and intelligence cooperation with the United States and Arab countries. In this context, key regional and external actors are forced to adapt, rethink their strategies, and seek new forms of cooperation to maintain the balance of power.
The instability that has emerged since the fall of the Assad regime has created favorable conditions for terrorist groups to rebuild and expand. ISIS has taken advantage of the changing geopolitical environment to strengthen its position. Since 2020, the traditional influence of external actors in Syria has declined: Russia, China, and Iran have reduced their presence, while Turkey has become the dominant regional power. Ankara’s opposition to the strengthening of the SDF, which was previously a key US ally in the fight against ISIS, as well as a possible reduction in US support, are creating conditions that terrorist groups can exploit to restore their power. The new US administration’s position on the SDF remains uncertain, adding to the uncertainty of the region’s future.
The expansive US oil policy could be another factor complicating the political landscape. In 2018, Trump, during his first term, pressured Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to lower prices. In 2020, when a price war broke out between Saudi Arabia and Russia, he again intervened to stop the price decline that threatened the existence of the US shale industry. Thus, the US oil policy, even if it is not fully implemented, could create additional challenges for Saudi Arabia, which is trying to maintain stability in the “black gold” market and secure funding for its ambitious reforms. At the same time, Riyadh has close economic ties to Donald Trump’s inner circle. A prominent example is Yasser al-Rumayyan, the head of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund Public Investment Fund (PIF) and an ally of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. PIF has been closely involved with the Trump Organization, investing in construction projects and sponsoring the LIV Golf Tour. However, the key figure in this relationship remains Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. During his first term as president, Kushner lobbied for Saudi Arabia, especially after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. After Trump left the White House, Kushner’s investment company received $2 billion from PIF.
Another important player in this network is Elon Musk. In 2018, PIF invested in Tesla, but later sold the shares, but through a stake in the Saudi conglomerate Kingdom Holding, PIF retained ties to Musk’s business. His startup xAI has attracted large investments thanks to Saudi partners, and Musk’s speech at the PIF conference in October 2024 was a signal of restored relations. These contacts help Riyadh minimize risks and maintain influence in Washington, despite possible changes in US policy.
Elon Musk, in turn, maintains business relations with China, which also benefits Saudi Arabia's infrastructure projects. In 2024, during a visit to China, the businessman agreed on cooperation between Tesla and the Chinese company Baidu. According to Bloomberg, the companies are jointly developing mapping and navigation systems for the implementation of FSD autonomous driving technology.
China is Iran's largest trading partner: in the first half of 2024 alone, non-oil trade between the two countries reached $15.7 billion. In March 2021, Iran and China officially signed a document on 25 years of comprehensive cooperation, which provides for Chinese investments in the Iranian economy in the amount of up to $400 billion. These funds are directed to the development of energy, transport and telecommunications. For China, Iran is the key to the implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy aimed at strengthening economic and transport ties between Asia, Europe and Africa. Tehran, in turn, sees Beijing as a counterweight to American influence and an important source of support in the face of international isolation. Both countries advocate for a multipolar world where US dominance is limited, making them natural allies in international organizations such as the United Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China is also one of Iran’s main suppliers of military technology and equipment. Cooperation includes drones, missile systems, and cyber technology, which are critical for sanctions-hit Iran as it seeks to bolster its defenses.
According to the Israel Policy Forum, the United States needs to initiate a comprehensive process aimed at implementing critical reforms in Palestine. This process should be carried out in close cooperation with key regional players such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt, and take into account the region’s broader strategic interests. In addition, it is necessary to define a reliable electoral horizon that will allow the younger generation to actively participate in political life, which will contribute to the long-term stabilization of the region.
Torn between the different interests of its partners and enemies, complex business and economic ties, Washington will, in its usual manner, be guided by a strategy of controlled chaos, waging proxy wars with Iran's ideological allies. At the same time, US Presidential Envoy Stephen Witkoff said in an interview with Fox News that the United States does not rule out the possibility of military intervention in Tehran if the situation reaches a critical point. Witkoff emphasized that President Donald Trump is categorically against Iran possessing nuclear weapons. The letter Trump sent to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2025 gave an unambiguous signal that Washington intends to conclude a nuclear deal to avoid military action.
In turn, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran is ready for war, but does not seek it, since diplomacy with Washington has not yet reached a dead end. However, according to Araghchi, Tehran flatly refuses to renew the nuclear deal in its original form. The new agreements must take into account the changed realities of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), and the Foreign Ministry considers a return to the previous conditions impossible. In an interview with Khabar Online, Abbas Araghchi noted that Tehran's current policy is indirect negotiations with Washington. According to him, the Republic is now working "with three European countries" to use the same formula as in the previous version of the JCPOA: to strengthen trust in the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions, which, in the minister's opinion, are in the hands of the Europeans, not the Americans. Given the certain tension that is developing between EU leaders and Trump, a deal with the Europeans could benefit the Iranians. However, delay will be costly: the United States has deployed its best military forces to the region, redirecting the center of military action from the South China Sea to the Middle East. This is consistent with a new plan to put economic pressure on Iran – shutting down the oil sector, which, combined with military support, will close off key sea routes and hit Tehran’s trade.
