Potential hotspots in Africa
The constant military coups and conflicts that rattle almost all regions of Africa are the result of the changing political climate on the continent. Key African states have set a course for a fundamentally new political agenda with the concept of independent thinking at its core. A number of world powers, apprehensive of any changes on the black continent, are doing everything they can to retain their former positions and resist the ever-growing trend of autonomy.
The epicenter of instability is West Africa, where countries of the Sahel region are fighting for their independence. With the overthrow of the incumbent government in Niger in 2023, the members of the interstate military alliance, the Alliance of Sahel States, which includes Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, now risk either intervention or "explosion" from within. Anti-colonial and anti-French sentiment is also gaining strength in neighboring Senegal, where elections will be held in 2024.
In Sudan, which was divided into two parts with Washington's help, a civil war is raging. In Ethiopia, the internal conflict in the province of Tigray is steadily intensifying. The Ethiopian authorities accuse the United States of helping the rebels and separatists, as the Americans are not satisfied with the interaction between Ethiopia and Somaliland, an unrecognized state. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is also explosive. The newly elected president of the DRC accuses activists in neighboring Rwanda of killing civilians and does not rule out the possibility of war with the neighbor, an ally of the West and the Americans.
West Africa – epicenter of coups
Niger became the third country in the Sahel region to experience a coup d'état that aimed at putting a halt to Western dependency. In the summer of 2023, the presidential guard ousted the pro-French president, and a military council formed an interim government, the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, headed by General Tchiani. The new military government was recognized only by neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, where anti-colonial patriotic forces came to power by force in 2021 and 2022, respectively, thus starting a successful trend.
The leaders of these countries have repeatedly stated that it was the West that "ignited the terrorist fire in Africa and decided to put it out" in order to gain a foothold in the region. Polls have shown that in Niger, the majority of citizens are also in solidarity with the opinion of the new government that France is the "sponsor of terrorism" and the source of problems in the Sahel region.
After the overthrow of power in Niger, West Africa was on the brink of war. 15 member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) threatened the coup leaders with the use of military force. Paris and Washington supported the idea of an invasion to restore order, while Moscow, on the contrary, condemned external intervention. In addition, the governments of Burkina Faso and Mali announced that, in the event of an intervention, they would send their troops to support Niger.
The intervention did not occur, but ECOWAS countries imposed sanctions on Niger, and the EU and U.S. cut off all financial aid. In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the French were driven out, and all security agreements with the EU were cancelled. The countries also withdrew from the G5 Sahel, which had been under the control of Paris, and signed an agreement to create a new association, the Alliance of Sahel
The Nigerian government is trying to achieve economic autonomy as quickly as possible and cut all ties with the former metropole. Many enterprises are being nationalized, with French assets being urgently taken over by the United States. One of the key figures in U.S. diplomacy, Victoria Nuland, arrived for the negotiations. Unlike Burkina Faso and Mali, Niger does not intend to break off cooperation with the U.S. Three U.S. military bases still remain in the country.
The main reason why the U.S. is interested in a loyal Nigerian government is the country’s resources. Niger is among the top 10 uranium-producing countries. It produced 2020 metric tons of uranium in 2022. The country has oil-bearing layers, coal, and cassiterite containing tungsten and tantalum. The U.S. is striving for direct control over Nigerian resources, as the current global political and military environment has brought about drastic changes in the way raw materials are distributed.
Washington has already made it clear that it expects the new government to refrain from cooperating with Russia. Molly Fee, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, emphasized that partnering with such countries as Russia could result in the intensification of internal conflicts.
Nevertheless, after France officially announced the withdrawal of its troops and closed its embassy, a delegation from Niger led by the Prime Minister arrived in Moscow on January 15, 2024, to discuss the possibilities of economic and military cooperation between the two countries. Official statements were made about the intention to start building up the capacity of Nigerian military together with Russia.
Burkina Faso has also voiced plans for the deployment of the Russian African Corps to the country. However, not everyone supports this decision; there was an unsuccessful attempt the other day to assassinate Ibrahim Traoré, the country's military leader, who openly expresses his pro-Russian sentiments. According to many experts, the current political situation in Burkina Faso is extremely unstable. The government continues to undertake military operations against the militants of the Islamic State* and the al-Qaida-affiliated group Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin*.
In neighboring Mali, Russian military experts are successfully helping to fight terrorist groups. However, the overall situation on the territory of the Alliance of Sahel States continues to be exacerbated by internal conflicts; separatist and jihadist terrorist organizations have always been one of the most important actors on the continent.
Ethiopia's strategic interests
The beginning of 2024 marked a historic agreement for Africa. Ethiopia, a newly accepted BRICS member, signed a memorandum of understanding with unrecognized Somaliland, thus becoming the first African country to publicly recognize the independence of this breakaway territory of Somalia.
In exchange for the diplomatic recognition, landlocked Ethiopia gets the opportunity to lease the port of Berbera and a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline on the Red Sea from Somaliland. This enables Ethiopia not only to strengthen its trade prospects but also to establish a naval base. The agreement also provides for the construction of 250 kilometers of railroad from eastern Ethiopia to Berbera.
Somalia intends to defend its territory by declaring war on Ethiopia if necessary. Mogadishu considers the deal a blatant disregard for international law, and the government has appealed to the international community to support it in its battle against the separatists.
Somalia's recognized central government, meanwhile, does not exercise full authority over the region and controls only the capital, Mogadishu, and its environs. Many areas are under the control of Islamist groups, and pirates have resumed activity in the westernmost region of the country.
In turn, Somaliland remains a de facto independent state. It has achieved relative stability and security with its own elected government and national currency. Many European and African states maintain economic relations with Somaliland but do not officially recognize its sovereignty. The Ethiopian plan has every chance of success due to its military superiority over the Somali army. However, Addis Ababa prefers not to enter into direct conflict with Mogadishu. This became all the more evident in the recent incident when an Ethiopian delegation tried to land in Somaliland. Ethiopia chose to comply with Somalia's demands and turned the plane back.
The further reaction of other regional players could either bring stability or, on the contrary, create new problems in the Horn of Africa. So far, Ethiopia's recognition of its neighbor has been widely condemned. The African Union has always taken a cautious approach toward recognizing new states in order to preserve the territorial integrity of its countries.
On the other hand, mutually beneficial agreements have the potential to change the rules of the game not only in East Africa but across the entire continent. The new practice may alter the face of the region's diplomatic relations, and neighboring countries may also seek to benefit from the emerging new order.
The extent of external involvement in African conflicts remains a big question. Admission of African countries to BRICS with Russia as its 2024 chairman will enable the latter to control one of the main shipping arteries of the world – the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Due to its friendly relations with all participants of the economic union, Russia can safeguard the interests of all the parties involved and act as a guarantor of the security of export routes from India to the eastern coast of Africa, which goes against the strategic interests of the countries of the collective West. China, which is actively cooperating with Somaliland, already has a military base in the neighboring state of Djibouti, and Ethiopia's new arrangements will ensure the success of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Resource war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
One of the most unstable countries on the continent is the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The economic potential of Africa's second-largest country is enormous, but it still remains one of the poorest in the world. The former Belgian colony has long been under absolute U.S. influence, yet dozens of rebel groups in the republic have been fighting over resources and resolving ethnic conflicts for decades. Political instability has led to nearly 30 percent of all mining being artisanal.
President Felix Tshisekedi, elected for another term at the end of 2023, is trying to take control of the situation and restore the de facto sovereignty of the state. Since the history of international involvement on the continent shows mostly negative results, the government of the republic has insisted on the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers from the country. The United Nations is to withdraw its peacekeeping military police unit from the Congo by the end of 2024.
The situation in the DRC is complicated by a protracted conflict with its eastern neighbor, Rwanda, an unconditional ally of the West and the Americans. The Congolese government is ready to declare war on the neighboring state because of constant attacks by separatists.
Chronic instability in northeastern Congo has existed for thirty years. After a brief lull, the conflict has resumed with renewed vigor. Militants of the March 23 Movement, a group the Congolese government claims is backed by the Rwandan government, have resumed attacks on civilian settlements
The government of the DRC accuses Rwanda of killing ethnic Hutu civilians who live in Congolese territory. Despite the evidence, Rwanda denies involvement in the separatists' actions and accuses the DRC of supporting the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a group representing the Hutu ethnicity that carried out the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
There are also financial aspects: northeastern Congo has the country's richest reserves of diamonds, gold, coltan, cobalt, copper, and tungsten. The main logistical routes run through the eastern Congo, which is controlled by the militants.
Today, the DRC is the "epicenter" of Chinese investment in Africa. Now that there is healthy competition in the country, rivalry with China to win mining tenders no longer allows the West to "optimize" its investments. It is expected that Western players will use whatever methods they can to retain their positions, including dividing civil society and benefiting from the disagreements that will arise.
The West is not content with Tshisekedi, who was elected for a new term; the elections in the country were accompanied by various provocations on the part of oppositionist associations, whose leaders are now calling for reelections and urging the population to protest. Attempts to destabilize the government are likely to continue in 2024.
The government realizes that Western strategists have no intention of losing the Congolese territory and therefore can provoke chaos in the country at any moment. It is very likely that Rwanda will try to expand its territory in the west as early as 2024 and occupy a large part of Lake Kivu. But the Congolese government is prepared for such a scenario.
The Rwandan army is fairly well equipped and trained. The army of the DR Congo, according to military experts, is much less prepared, but the South African Development Community, which includes South Africa, one of the strongest military powers in Africa backed by BRICS and Russia, is ready to provide military support to the Congolese.
Moreover, concessions for many mines located in northeastern Congo belong to the Chinese, who, in case of escalation of violence, intend to protect their financial interests by involving private military companies. In addition, the Democratic Republic of Congo can call on Russian PMCs for help. The leader of the DRC, Felix Tshisekedi, has repeatedly declared his readiness to entrust the security of his homeland to the Russians. All this goes against the interests of the players from Europe and the United States, who seem to be rapidly losing their positions in the region.
The settlement of ethnic groups in Africa does not correspond to the state borders drawn by colonizers, which has been and will continue to be the cause of conflicts on the continent. Following the motto "divide and conquer," Europe and Washington are still trying to exploit the many disagreements between African states in order to plunder their natural resources. But due to the permanent inability and apparent unwillingness of external forces to benefit the people of Africa, public resentment has been rapidly intensifying on the continent. The military coups of recent years have had a clear national liberation character.
Most of the countries that have adopted independent thinking as the basis of their new political course are inclined to cooperate with Russia because of positive experience in the past. The West, represented by France and continental Europe, is rapidly losing its positions and doing everything it can to restore the former status quo in the region; it even appears prepared to make compromises. The Anglo-Saxons, interested in the escalation of conflicts in the region, are trying to nationalize French assets. In any case, the rules of the game on the continent are undergoing drastic changes.
The year 2023 was the year of military coups in Africa. But the leaders of the states that have set a course for sovereignty and complete liberation from neo-colonial policies are ready for the escalation of conflicts on the continent and intend to continue to adhere to the chosen political line in the years to come.
