Results of the US presidential election

Election promises

Despite lawsuits, misinformation and media wars organised by Donald Trump's rivals, he has managed to win the favour of the electorate and become the President of the United States for the second time by “working on mistakes” and using the experience of the presidency of previous years. During his 2023 election campaign, Donald Trump focused on solving the domestic problems of the state, related to immigration and social policy, taxes, rising inflation and the restoration of “law and order” in the country. In particular, Trump promised to stop the flow of illegal migration, drug trafficking and criminals, especially on the southern border of the United States, ending the “open borders” policy initiated by Joe Biden. In this regard, it is planned to tighten immigration laws, mass deportation of people staying on the territory of the United States illegally, as well as the resumption of the “border” policy of the Trump administration, launched by the latter in 2016 and associated with the construction of a “border wall” between Mexico and the southern states of America.

As for the country's economy, in this area Donald Trump remains determined to ‘build the greatest economy in history’, based on the 5 pillars of his programme: Slashing Regulations, cutting Taxes, securing Fair Trade Deals, ensuring Reliable and Abundant Low-Cost Energy, and championing Innovation. In particular, the newly elected President of the United States announced the reduction of regulations that limit the number of jobs, freedom and innovative progress, expressed his intention to abolish the “tip tax”, as well as to make the United States energy-independent and energy-dominant on the world market. According to the Republicans, these actions would lower inflation, which has increased due to the stifling policies of the Democratic Party, and achieve leadership in emerging fields such as AI, cryptocurrency, and security in space.

However, despite the fact that Donald Trump in his programme placed emphasis on solving the internal problems of the state, foreign policy is still one of the most important aspects of his election campaign. Thus, he declared his intention to prevent the World War III and restore peace in Europe and the Middle East, which aroused great interest of the world community, because, firstly, it contradicts the position of the state itself, and secondly, for the US military-industrial complex, participation in military conflicts is one of the stable sources of earnings. Although the pre-election campaign did not pay special attention to relations with Russia, it is unlikely that the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation should be expected to weaken. This is due to the fact that long-term US strategies (National Security Strategy and National Defence Industrial Strategy) consider Russia as one of the key threats to the country; as a result, Trump's victory will not have a significant impact on changing future policy. Although Trump's past presidency came under the slogans of normalising relations with Russia, it was also a time of very rapid degradation of US-Russian relations, sanctions, and the rearmament of Ukraine. Therefore, Washington and its allies will continue to use various types of sanctions, provocations and acts of “soft power” in order to destabilise the situation both inside Russia and against its foreign partners.

Looking through the scope

Despite the Trump administration's encouraging statements about its desire to end global conflicts and declaration of quite positive plans in domestic policy, the world in general and Russia in particular should expect more aggressive and tough steps from his presidency. Washington will increase its activity in the foreign policy direction, which is largely due to the interest groups that brought Trump to power - the military-industrial elite, oilmen, corporate and technological giants, billionaires - all of them are interested in preserving and strengthening the dominant position of the United States in the world and, of course, in increasing demand for their products. Heavy industry represented by American Airlines, Boeing, Lockheed Martin (75% of the company's revenues are contracts with the US Government), Northrop Grumman actively financed Trump's election campaign, as a result of which on the day when it became known about his victory in the election, the shares of the companies rose by 2-3%, and Lockheed Martin - by 5%. Ilon Musk, who became a key supporter of Trump, earned $15bn on Tesla shares during the US presidential election, having previously supported the Republicans with over $130m. Moreover, Trump's victory was welcomed by the private defence industry not only in the US: German military concerns Hensoldt and Rheinmetall are expecting an increase in demand for the goods they produce due to the expected rise in European defence spending in the new geopolitical circumstances.

It is expected that the new administration will pursue its plans to “Make America Great Again” through aggressive policies - trade wars, customs duties, arms supplies - which will only worsen global instability. In his election programme, Donald Trump has already promised to raise tariffs on all imports to 20%, and for Chinese products - up to 60%. This measure has been actively criticised by Democrats, who predict economic collapse from the implementation of such restrictions, but it is undeniable that the tariffs will contribute to weakening the prospects for the development of major economies, in particular, will allow to put coordinated pressure on Beijing.

Another hallmark of Trump's policy could be to increase domestic oil production and control its supply from countries with large reserves, such as the OPEC+ countries that include Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Among other steps, he promised to streamline the permitting process for drilling on federal lands and encourage the construction of new natural gas pipelines, as well as reauthorise oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, which Joe Biden had previously banned. Tax breaks for oil, gas and coal companies and amnesty for green crimes are also expected. According to Donald Trump, oil will provide the United States with lower energy prices, as a consequence, will smooth inflation within the country, and most importantly - will lead to lower global oil prices. Such aggressive moves will hardly promote US co-operation with OPEC, but rather aimed at forcing out of the global market such large suppliers as Saudi Arabia, Russia and others, which, by artificially reducing oil production, seek to maintain the market. In particular, falling oil prices combined with rising inflation and high import demand could have extremely negative consequences for Russia's domestic stability, which can only be overcome through qualitative re-industrialisation.

The increase in oil and arms production supported by Trump's supporters from the military-industrial and oil sectors raises doubts about his peaceful intentions, as it is the military-industrial complex that is interested in launching military operations in all kinds of “hot spots”, such as Syria, Iran, China, India, Pakistan and Taiwan. At the same time, Donald Trump himself, in his first statement after the past election, outlined a course to end conflicts in which the US is indirectly involved.

Such a statement certainly applies to the ongoing conflict between Israel and the pro-Iranian groups Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. In addition, Trump's targets could also include potentially troubled regions around the world, including Asia and the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

Given the challenging U.S.-China relations, which are currently in a period of “economic warfare”, it is possible to judge their future deterioration due to further attempts by both countries to dominate other states. In turn, Taiwan is a country with a concentration of companies that produce high-tech products, including microelectronics used in the military-industrial complex and civilian goods of Western countries. In this regard, Trump's policy could be a sharpened continuation of the Joe Biden administration's policy of strengthening ties with Taiwan, increasing arms shipments and conducting joint military exercises. That said, despite Trump's early remarks that “Taiwan gives up nothing for support from the United States”, a reduced United States presence in the region, and on the Chinese island in particular, is unlikely due to clear economic and geopolitical advantages for Washington.

In the Middle East, the US is most involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but equally important remains the Iran-US relationship, where, as the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump helped to derail the nuclear deal. Given Iran's ties to loyalist military groups as well as the Yemeni Houthis on the one hand, and the United States' historical support for Israel on the other, the latter's involvement in the conflict may change. Despite possible predictions of an immediate termination or freezing of hostilities on Trump's initiative, as well as rumours of spoiled relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, further cooperation between the two administrations could lead to a harsh crackdown on pro-Palestinian militias. However, in order to build a constructive dialogue with key Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, it is unlikely that Trump will support attacks on Palestinian territories and populations. The political course could also change towards Iran and lead to a renewal of the JCPOA to prevent Tehran from building weapons of mass destruction, as well as creating an economic advantage in the Biden scenario. (link to our article on Iran and uranium)

One of Trump's most pressing foreign policy issues is the fate of the conflict in Ukraine. In his campaign promises, he expressed confidence in a soon conclusion of hostilities with his participation in the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Vice President-elect James Vance assumes that a peace agreement with Russia will be similar to the proposal Vladimir Putin put forward in June 2024 during a speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry. In particular, it included territorial concessions by Ukraine, the creation of a demilitarised zone and guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO. At the same time, there is a probability of weakening the US position as the main coordinator of NATO and simultaneous strengthening as a supplier. Given Trump's support for the military-industrial complex in the elections, it is likely that in the end there will be increased investment in the military-industrial complex, the production and modernisation of weapons and ammunition, and the creation of new military technologies for hybrid warfare.

In reality, there is no significant benefit to Russia from a particular candidate for the US Presidency, as the country's policies will not be subject to significant changes in the future with respect to the Russian Federation. Since 2014, economic restrictions of various kinds have been imposed on Russia by presidents from both parties. Also in the future, Washington and its allies will use various types of sanctions, provocations and acts of “soft power” to destabilise both Russia and its foreign partners. Russia may be vulnerable to such impact because Russia is not perceived by developed economies as a worthy competitor due to the fact that the bulk of Russia's exports are primary and processed raw materials, while the main export positions of developed countries are finished and high-tech products. Therefore, it is vital for Russia to improve its scientific, technical and industrial base in order to strengthen its position in international markets, diversify trade flows and achieve technological sovereignty.