Review 2023: Collective West

Consequences of the Ukrainian conflict

During 2022–2023, Western countries actively promoted the idea of supporting Ukraine in any form, including in the form of joining Western intergovernmental organizations such as NATO. In July 2023, NATO countries decided to simplify the procedure for joining the alliance for Ukraine, skipping the stage of implementing the action plan to prepare for membership. Contrary to the expectations of official Kiev, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance said that Ukraine’s entry into the military bloc in the near future is impossible, since the country is in a state of armed conflict with Russia. At the moment, the danger of Ukraine joining NATO lies not only in the real possibility of conducting large-scale military operations against the Russian Federation, but also in a possible split within the organization, since Sweden has been the most expected candidate for membership for a long time.

Another promise from the West to Ukraine regarding European integration can be considered the launch of the negotiation process for accession to the European Union. However, it is worth considering that the start of negotiations was repeatedly delayed, which indicates existing disagreements among the countries of the economic association. Thus, Hungary does not agree to speed up the process of Ukraine’s entry into the EU, since for successful entry into the association, the position of official Kiev must meet strict criteria, such as reducing the level of corruption and respecting the rights of national minorities. Despite this, while supporting the anti-Russian political course, most Western countries are ready to provide maximum assistance on this issue. At the same time, there are also huge risks for Western countries when Ukraine joins. First of all, threats will come from European countries that will disagree with the accelerated acceptance of Ukraine. These include Turkey, which has been in candidate status since 1999 and has been frozen at the stage of accession negotiations since 2005, as well as a number of countries on the Balkan Peninsula. Moreover, some European countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, do not see positive prospects in Russia's economic isolation.

Since the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Donbass, Western countries have been directly involved in it on the side of Ukraine, supplying the country with weapons, ammunition, military equipment, as well as providing humanitarian and financial support. The total amount of assistance at the end of October 2023 amounts to more than $247 billion, of which assistance from the European Council and the European Commission amounted to more than $81 billion, from the United States - more than $75 billion, from Germany - more than $22 billion, from the UK - more than $14 billion. Despite regular supplies and volumes of military assistance (more than $97 billion), Western countries recognize that Ukraine’s successes at the front are very insignificant: the counteroffensive did not bring the expected results, and Russian troops continue to move forward. In this regard, American senators have doubts about the advisability of allocating support to Ukraine: the adoption of relevant bills becomes problematic as relations between Democrats and Republicans worsen and, as a result, the support of officials decreases. Moreover, recently the amount of aid allocated has been significantly reduced due to the greater involvement of Western countries in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

US Middle East Issues

For a long time, the United States has made numerous attempts to gain a foothold in the Middle East. Despite unilateral economic restrictions against Iran, Washington charted a course towards rapprochement with the Islamic republic. Thus, exchanges of American prisoners were carried out for the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and additional questions were raised about easing the sanctions regime in exchange for a partial curtailment of the Iranian nuclear program. Moreover, the easing of restrictions could concern Iranian energy resources, in particular oil and gas, which, if certain successes are achieved in Iranian-American relations, could be used to control prices on world markets and reduce the degree of dependence of the United States and European countries on Russian energy resources.

For a long time, the United States also built relations with the influential Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Cooperation took place on the principle of “oil in exchange for security.” To this day, US military bases are located in the kingdom, and Riyadh also purchases American weapons and military equipment. Exclusive deals were also discussed between the countries: the United States offered KSA to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a defense pact and assistance in developing its own nuclear program.

Despite this, US plans to build strong relationships with key countries in the Middle East region were not realized. After the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and the pro-Palestinian group Hamas, Riyadh suspended the process of normalizing Israeli-Saudi relations, and Iran accused Western countries and the United States, in particular, of inciting the conflict. Given the historical level of support for Israel, American relations with Middle Eastern countries have also undergone a crisis amid the conflict. Based on the international situation, Washington needed to “stretch” its resources both to the needs of Ukraine and to help Israel: the United States became the first country to provide military equipment and weapons, and country officials also allowed the possibility of US military units participation in the fight against Hamas .

It is worth noting that the traits of the two main conflicts are significantly different from each other. The unprecedented support of Western countries for the conflict in Ukraine is largely due to the anti-Russian position and geographical proximity to the Russian Federation. At the same time, not every Western country directly supported Israel, because this would lead to a likely breakdown or deterioration of relations with the countries of the Middle East, as well as to numerous unrest and clashes within the country with Muslims, Arab migrants and refugees, a total of more than 20 million people, thanks to EU migration policies.

Turkish "neutrality"

The position of the Republic of Turkey on the geopolitical map for the second year in a row is at least surprising. This is mainly because of commitment to its own independent foreign policy. As one of the key NATO countries on the European continent, Turkey can often go against the American and pro-Western course. Thus, for quite a long period of time, official Ankara blocked Sweden’s entry into NATO due to the latter’s support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a recognized terrorist organization in Turkey.

In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the republic officially supported Ukraine and condemned Russia’s actions. In addition, Turkey is one of the main suppliers of weapons to Kyiv and is participating in 262 reconstruction projects in Ukraine in the amount of $9.3 billion as part of the memorandum of understanding on the reconstruction of the country. The overwhelming majority of Turkish-Ukrainian projects have an orientation related to the military-industrial complex. At the same time, the conflict itself and pressure from other Western countries actually did not affect Turkish-Russian relations: infrastructure projects in the fuel and energy sector are still being implemented on the territory of the republic, such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant and the Turkish Stream, and Turkey, meanwhile, contributed to circumventing anti-Russian economic sanctions and organizing re-export and re-import. In general, Ankara was looking for benefits in the conflict in Donbass: Turkey was interested both in implementing the “Grain Deal”, within the framework of which the republic would take on a mediating role, and in participating in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This approach was supposed to improve Turkey's foreign policy position in the long term.

An additional opportunity for the country to establish itself on the world stage was the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Since 2021, Turkey has systematically cooperated with Azerbaijan, including on security issues and the provision of military assistance. Thus, the countries signed a declaration on joint actions in the event of an attack from third countries. As part of the Karabakh conflict, Ankara abandoned neutrality and took the side of Baku, providing it with support. The main goal of these actions was not so much to help the neighboring state, but to support Muslims, create and strengthen the “Turkic world”.

The most striking example of the implementation of the concept of “Turkic world” is Turkey’s reaction to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Like most Arab and Muslim countries, Ankara has taken a pro-Palestinian position, thereby opposing the vector of the United States. According to Turkey, it is Western countries that are guilty of Israel's crimes in the Gaza Strip, which caused a wave of confrontation from adherents of Islam.

US-China competition for Southeast Asia

For the United States, Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region are of great interest, since it is believed that in the coming years it will provide 2/3 of global economic growth. The reason for this may be both the potential of large countries such as China and India, and the opportunity to participate in the development of less economically developed countries. At the same time, the United States is faced with its main rival in the region in the form of the PRC, since official Beijing makes it clear that this region is the primary zone of its interests.

In order to counter Chinese influence, the United States is actively introducing and using both economic and military deterrence tools. Thus, to strengthen its position, the United States created a partnership on mineral security, which also included Australia, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Great Britain, the European Union and India. This partnership aims to ensure that critical minerals are extracted, processed and reused in ways that support countries' ability to take full advantage of their geological resources for economic development. It is also a tool in the fight against China, which was able to create a complete technological chain of production based on rare earth metals, which are in great demand in large countries.

Similar to the situation with rare earth metals, microelectronics are also in high demand, as they are used in both conventional technology and various advanced designs, military equipment and critical infrastructure. However, not every country can produce it: Taiwan has the most high-tech production of microchips and the corresponding capacities in the region, for which the strongest economies in the world are also fighting. The PRC is spreading the “one China policy”, using “soft power” to return the island under its jurisdiction. On the other hand, despite the fact that Taiwan is already under US influence, Washington is making efforts to strengthen its presence in the region by increasing arms supplies and deploying its contingent. The United States and its allies are generally increasing their military presence in the Asia-Pacific region: in order to counter China, the AUKUS and QUAD military alliances are operating in the region.

At the same time, the less developed countries of Southeast Asia have also become targets in the US fight against China. To achieve their national interests, major powers have chosen more aggressive diplomatic, economic and military approaches, trying to bring countries into their sphere of influence. Thus, the United States has built a stable relationship with the Philippines, while the authorities of Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar are trying to determine for themselves which country cooperation with will ensure economic development and resolve security issues.

In the context of an escalating geopolitical situation, Western countries, in particular, the United States, have not lived up to their role as a guarantor of international security. The outbreak of two major conflicts in recent years was the result of aggressive military and foreign economic policies. The flow of US material and financial resources is now focused on Ukraine and Israel, while at the same time there remains the need to maintain ties with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region to strengthen its sphere of influence.

• The situation in Ukraine does not meet the expectations of Western countries. The volume of assistance provided, as well as interest in the conflict, will gradually decrease. The active phase of the armed confrontation in Donbass may soon end.

• US attempts to gain a foothold in the Middle East were unsuccessful. As the conflict continues and possibly escalates, the United States' relations with Arab countries will deteriorate due to its support for Israel.

• Turkey continues to move according to the national course and ideas about the “Turkic world”. The Republic of Turkey will continue to cooperate closely with the Turkic countries, despite possible criticism from the countries of the West.

• In the Asia-Pacific region, tensions between the United States and China continue to grow. The most likely location for the emergence of new hot spots may be the countries of the Indo-Pacific coast, as well as Taiwan.