Review 2024: Collective West

The election of US President Donald Trump and the impact of his presidency on the future world order

The US presidential election has expectedly become one of the defining events not even rather of the outgoing year, but of the next one. Due to the fact that the incumbent US President Joe Biden is in the role of a “lame duck” (in the US, this is the usual way to call a president who fails to win the next election or resigns from the presidency), the media, insiders and all kinds of sources are discussing the future course of Donald Trump.

Assumptions vary: supporters of Trump and technological restructuring are sure that America will have a bright new future where techno-optimism and conservative values of the 1950s will harmoniously coexist – an era that is now viewed with special nostalgia by the right-wing circles of the United States. Other experts, skeptical of Trump's promises to bring back the “old order,” fear trade wars, rising global tensions and political persecution of Democratic Party opponents.

At the moment, it is difficult to accurately judge what the policy of the new US administration will be. Nevertheless, statements by Trump and his confidants (Elon Musk, Peter Thiel), whose influence is likely to determine Trump's new course, allow us to form some assumptions. First, we can expect an increase in tensions with China. To weaken the rival's economic potential, Trump intends to fight it by raising trade barriers, technological sanctions (knowing that China depends on the supply of microchips and semiconductors) and forcing allied countries to follow the US course.

In addition to sanctions and duties against China, Trump, or even his like-minded US technology elites, are going to bet on accelerated US development through technology, innovation and reduction of the overgrown bureaucracy (which they see as the main obstacle to economic growth) – a kind of curtsy to the right-wing libertarian circles of America. In order to realize these ideas, the US will need to focus more on domestic politics and slightly loosen its grip on what is going on in the world, which has already started to go away recently. The difficulty is that the U.S., in order to remain the sole superpower on the world stage, needs both NATO military bases in Europe and outposts around the world, and an attempt to achieve both goals simultaneously may prove to be a failure.

It is also worth noting that those members of impoverished circles in the US (lower middle class, former workers, etc.) risk disappointment in their hopes associated with Trump's arrival. Despite the rhetoric about how close he is to the common man and a competent PR campaign, Trump is a representative of the interests of billionaires, technological and military elites, and his policies will be primarily aimed at supporting their interests, as was the case during Trump's first term. Therefore, only 5-10% of the US population - employees of technology companies, military-industrial complex, etc., to which the poor and middle classes do not belong - will most likely be able to count on improvement of their situation again.

The Special Military Operation: Western countries’ stance on supporting Ukraine

In the course of the ongoing third year of the SMO, Western countries seem to be starting to diverge on different sides of the barricades. Some – the UK, France – are ready to pump arms into Ukraine at an increased pace, provoking Russia to retaliate. Others – Germany, which makes harsh statements but fears escalation, Austria, which tries to maintain neutrality and further contacts with Gazprom, as well as Italy – are trying, if not to end the conflict, then to reduce the degree of escalation.

Under these circumstances, it will be particularly interesting to see how the policy of the new US administration under Donald Trump will develop. Joe Biden, whose presidential term ends on January 20, 2025, and his hawkish supporters have decided to slam the door loudly, complicating Trump's seemingly triumphant start to his administration. Ukraine was allowed to use U.S. ATACMS missiles to strike the Kursk region, sparking a new round of escalation in the already seemingly fading Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As a reaction to the U.S. actions, Russia struck Ukraine with “Oreshnik” – medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) on November 21, and President Vladimir Putin issued a statement that Russia's response to the provocations would be tough. At the same time, the head of state emphasized that Russia was ready for negotiations, but on its own terms.

In early 2025, it will become clear which path the U.S. will take in the Ukrainian conflict. So far, Donald Trump looks like a peacemaker, but to what extent his demands for reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine will meet Russia's conditions remains a mystery. In this situation, Russia has no other choice but to intensify its offensive in Ukraine in order to have trump cards on its hands in the form of occupied territories at the time of possible negotiations with the U.S. (and it is they, not Ukraine, who will make key decisions).

Western countries continue to put forward radical proposals regarding the conflict in Ukraine. The United Kingdom, the most anti-Russian Western country, is particularly notable here: its politicians are putting forward radical proposals regarding the SMO. Thus, on November 29, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that any possible ceasefire in Ukraine should imply the deployment of a European peacekeeping mission, including a British contingent.

Far-right surge: the rise in popularity of right-wing and radical right sentiments in the US and Europe

The year 2024 was marked by the so-called “right-wing wave” – victories of right-wing parties in key European countries, except for Great Britain, where the Conservatives lost a decade of voter confidence and lost to Labor. The impressive success of the Republican Party became the final chord of the offensive of right-wing parties in Western countries.

The growing popularity of right-wing parties is not a new trend in Western countries. It became clearly evident in the 2010s in the wake of the massive influx of illegal migrants to the EU and the US, the left-liberal elites' attack on traditional values and the deteriorating quality of life of the middle class.

Since the early 2010s, radical and extreme right-wing parties in Western countries have made an impressive leap on the political scene. In the United States, the Republican Party since the 1980s has developed as a typical party professing neoliberal values, free market and military interventions, thus differing little from the Democratic Party, but in the same period as its ideological associates in Europe, Republican party leaders decided to take a more radical stance.

Achievements of right-wing parties in the 2024 elections:

Austria: The far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) won the September parliamentary elections with 29% of the total vote, a record result in the party's electoral history.

Germany: The right-wing party (called extreme right or radical right in Germany) Alternative for Germany (AdG) won a landslide victory in the Landtag (state parliament) elections in the eastern German state of Thuringia (former GDR) with 32.8% of the vote.

USA: The Republican Party, which has been sharply to the right since the 2010s, wins a convincing victory in the elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate (lower and upper houses of parliament) in November 2024. Thus, the right-wing in the United States now controls all key institutions of power: the presidency, Congress (House of Representatives and Senate), and the Supreme Court (of the nine justices, five hold right-wing views and were appointed by Republican presidents).

The consequences of the “right turn” may influence key directions of domestic and foreign policy of Western countries. In domestic politics, this is primarily the adoption of anti-immigrant measures and limiting the cultural dominance of the left-liberal media, which has long been unresponsive to the demands of the majority of Europeans, but is supported by globalist elites. Foreign policy under the influence of right-wing parties may become less pro-Ukrainian: right-wing supporters are staunch opponents of military support for Ukraine and stand in favor of a more pro-Ukrainian agenda.

Western attempts to weaken China and bet on India

In 2024, the trend of growing contradictions between the West and China continued. Of course, the West here should be understood mainly as the United States. The US allies would be happy to continue favorable trade and economic cooperation with China, but they are forced to follow NATO commitments and various informal agreements.

It is worth noting that despite Donald Trump's strongly anti-China rhetoric, the deterioration of US-China relations would have continued under any US president. Such a development is expected from any White House administration, as China is now the only state in the world capable of competing economically with the United States. The United States, which has built its prosperity and geopolitical power through, if not total, then significant economic and political dominance over other states, simply cannot afford to exist on an equal footing with China.

Realizing that the main ingredient of China's success is economic, the US will make every possible effort to defeat China. Here, the U.S. has already bet on India, one of the largest countries in the Global South with growing demographic and economic potential. The strengthening of India, according to the American strategists, should limit China's economic and geopolitical claims to create its own zone of influence in Southeast Asia. India is becoming a key place where American and European technologies and investments are flowing to. The volume of direct US investments in India alone (excluding the EU) is estimated at about $50 billion.

For the same purpose, the U.S. and allies are increasing their presence in Southeast Asia, where the U.S. has about 300 military bases mainly off the coasts of the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and the island states of Oceania. China is responding by strengthening its own army and preparing for a potential armed conflict over Taiwan. The situation is likely to heat up in 2025: there are many “hawks” in Trump's team who call for preparing for war with China in the near foreseeable future.

Germany is Europe's weak link

In early November 2024, Germany's ruling coalition consisting of the Social Democrats, Free Democrats (supporters of loosening market regulations) and Greens collapsed. Early parliamentary elections are scheduled for February 23, 2025. Such a situation is quite typical for countries with a parliamentary system, where even major parties are forced to form coalitions. In Germany, however, the collapse of the coalition has confirmed a set of structural problems that the country's leading politicians have been putting off for decades.

Since the early 2020s, Germany has been experiencing intense deindustrialization - the decline of industry, which is the most important pillar of the German economy. This year, the country's leading automakers, such as Volkswagen, have announced impending job cuts of 10,000 jobs. The chemical industry, deprived of access to cheap energy from Russia, is also experiencing difficulties. One cannot say with certainty that the decline of the German economy is caused solely by the severance of trade and economic ties with Russia, but the cessation of Russian gas and oil supplies has definitely catalyzed this process.

In addition to deindustrialization, Germany is experiencing growing problems with the influx of migrants and overstretched social systems. These problems are exacerbated by German elites' desire to militarize Germany through increased military spending and support for Ukraine. If the weakening of Germany's economic capacity continues for the foreseeable future, there could be a change of leaders in the EU. One contender is Poland, which made a powerful economic leap in the 2010s through investments in the digital economy, industry, and high technology. Poland has traditionally been one of the most pro-American countries on the continent, consistently sending 2% of its GDP to NATO, so it is likely that Poland's ambitions will be supported in Washington.

Analysis of key events and trends in Western countries shows that the uncertainties and instability that have become the hallmarks of 2024 will only increase in the coming year. Whether they will turn into an open armed confrontation with Russia or China or whether the parties will be able to find common ground is an open question. At the same time, these trends demonstrate that Western dominance in the world is coming to an end, with the U.S. being the most intransigent defender of the “old order”, but other Western countries will be forced to find ways into the emerging multipolar world.

• Donald Trump's policy is unpredictable, but his aspirations are quite obvious: US global dominance, strangling competitors and protecting the interests of big business and the military-industrial complex. The realization of this policy will depend on whether the countries interested in a multipolar world can unite against the US and its Western allies.

• Despite Western attempts to strengthen Ukraine, Russia continues its offensive, while Vladimir Zelensky's regime is on the verge of exhaustion. At the same time, Western countries are trying to escalate the conflict to increase pressure on Russia, especially its economy.

• Against the backdrop of economic and social problems in Western countries, right-wing parties are gaining weight. They represent an alternative to the left-liberal and neoconservative currents in Western politics, proposing to limit military intervention in the affairs of other countries, to solve the problem of illegal migration and, if not to get closer to Russia, then not to confront it militarily.

• The confrontation between China and the US will become a defining process in the development of world politics. The U.S. is in a hurry to finish the Ukrainian conflict in order to concentrate all military and economic capabilities to limit China. Whether the confrontation between China and the US will turn into a war is unclear, but the clash of interests of the current and potential superpower will have a defining impact on world politics.

• It is becoming clear that Germany, as the leading economy in Europe, is on the verge of losing its once unshakable position. The country is experiencing the consequences of short-sighted political decisions, which may turn into a long-term political and economic crisis.