Review 2024: The Global South

The Middle East: managed instability or stable unmanageability

The December events in Syria, where the regime of Bashar al-Assad fell in a matter of days, prompted many to revisit the seemingly fading debate about the future of the Middle East region. The seizure of power in Syria by armed groups with roots in Al-Qaeda (terrorist organization banned in Russia) and other radical Islamist movements instantly exacerbated the already tangled contradictions in one of the most politically explosive regions of the world. Nevertheless, by the end of 2024, it is possible to identify, if not definitive, but situational beneficiaries of the ongoing changes.

Among the countries that have managed to turn what is happening in their favor, Turkey and Israel – the most militarized states of the Middle East, each of which seeks to realize its own image of the future in the region – should be singled out first of all.

Turkey, under Recep T. Erdogan, has emerged over the past decade as one of the leading powers in the Middle East region. Due to the Syrian campaign Turkey has consolidated its success in spreading its influence over both former post-Soviet countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia) and the Middle East. By supporting radical armed groups close to ISIS (terrorist organization banned in Russia) and other militant groups, Turkey has contributed to the collapse of the Syrian army and the government of Bashar al-Assad, allowing Erdogan to secure control of northern Syria. These successes also make it easier for Turkey to block Kurdish activity in Turkey, Iraq and Syria and to destroy the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the main spokesman for the Kurdish people, who demand separation from Turkey and seek to establish their own state.

At the moment, Turkey is pursuing a policy that is as favorable to itself as possible, and even its NATO membership status does not prevent it from doing so. President Erdogan has repeatedly mentioned his plans to create a “Great Turan” – which can actually be characterized as the Ottoman Empire 2.0. or the promotion of Turkish interests in all countries of the former Ottoman Empire. It is worth noting that in the future this may lead to new contradictions between Turkey and Russia, as Turkey's sphere of influence includes former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus and even Turkic-speaking regions within Russia.

Apart from Turkey, the second state that has strengthened its status in the Middle East is Israel. It can be said that the United States has also strengthened its position in the face of Israel, as almost every action of the government of Benjamin Netanyahu was supported by the American administration. Given the fact that incoming President Donald Trump is even more sympathetic to Israel and ready to defend its interests than Joe Biden, Israel can count on maximum support from the U.S. The reasons for this favorability on the part of the U.S. are clear: Israel is capable of significantly weakening Iran.

Israel's operations in Palestine and Lebanon, as well as successes in Syria, where Israel, in cooperation with Turkey, has armed and materially supported Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), the armed terrorist group that has seized power in Syria, allow Israel to move forward. Like Turkey, Israel has its own equivalent of the “Greater Turan”. It is the so-called “Greater Israel” – a neocolonial empire in a territory that includes Palestine, Lebanon, part of Syria (the Golan Heights and surrounding areas), Jordan and even Egypt.

For Russia, Israel's increased activity also promises few benefits. First of all, Israel is determined to politically destroy and weaken Iran – one of Russia's allies in the region - as much as possible. In addition, we should not forget the pro-American orientation of Israel's policy, which means further aggravation of contradictions with Russia over Syria. Israel's plans to expand its zone of influence also affect China, moreover, they threaten to block China's Belt and Road program. Most likely, with regard to China, Israel will pursue the most anti-Chinese path, as China in view of the confrontation with the U.S. considers Israel as one of the American “proxies” in the region.

Should we talk about the losing side in the Middle East, then in the passing year of 2024 it is Iran. The country's domestic political situation is complicated by the current and effective sanctions imposed by the West and the split in the ruling circles: part of the elite calls for normalization of relations with the West and, above all, with the United States, and part calls for strengthening the orientation towards Beijing and Moscow.

A major blow to Iran's position in the region was the de facto loss of Syria. This state played a crucial role in Iran's struggle with Israel and the presence of U.S. troops in the Middle East. Iran maintained a system of military bases on Syrian territory, which allowed it to spread its influence in the region and strengthen the “axis of resistance” – various anti-American and anti-Israeli movements in the Middle East.

Left without Syria, Iran is entering a turbulent stage of its existence: its positions have been weakened to the maximum over the past 45 years, and its socio-economic development is stagnating. Under these conditions, attempts on the part of the US and Israel to destroy the existing statehood in Iran and transfer power to a pro-American government cannot be ruled out. There are contenders for ruling “democratic” Iran, as evidenced by the growing political activity of the Iranian opposition in the United States. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the Iranian government faces an extremely difficult choice: to escalate escalation or to make concessions to all Western demands. Much will depend on the support (or lack thereof) from China and Russia.

Should we talk about other major players in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan), we should not forget about their dependence on the U.S. and the precariousness of their governments in case of a reduction in U.S. support. These countries are most of all interested in solving the refugee problem (Jordan), as well as reducing the intensity of conflicts in the region.

At the end of the year, we can say that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have strengthened their positions as regional centers of power. These states are promoting initiatives to resolve the situation both in the region and in the world, and are trying to develop relations with other states of the Global South – China and India – that are gaining strength. The status of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also being boosted by their economic successes: both countries are attractive places for investment and development of new technologies. Against the backdrop of the final shift of European countries towards the United States and their loss of political subjectivity, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are also becoming diplomatic centers between the West and the Global South.

APAC: economic growth and rising living standards as an alternative to military escalation

Despite the growing tensions between India and China as contenders for superpower status in the 21st century, the economies of the entire Asia-Pacific region can now be said to be benefiting from this rivalry. It is worth noting that although the rhetoric of the Indian and Chinese governments and allied countries is slightly escalating, at the moment the India-China rivalry, as well as the US-China confrontation, is largely economic. For the APAC itself, if we consider it as a global player, this has its advantages, which in the future may be the main factor in reducing the likelihood of military escalation in the region.

In 2024, the world economic, technological and industrial development continued to shift to the East, mainly to China, India and dynamically developing countries of the APAC – Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. The region has the potential to shape the future of the entire world in the next 50 years and the reason for this is high economic growth, technological innovation and, most importantly, the ability of the region's leading leaders to maintain economic cooperation and put aside political contradictions. Trade and economy are still the key priority for the countries of this region, which contrasts, for example, with the Middle East.

Now the leading position in the Asia-Pacific region belongs to China. Since the last 20 years Beijing has been the leader in the Asia-Pacific region, increasing its arms production and making territorial claims to neighboring countries (Japan, Philippines, India), the countries of the region have concerns about China's future policy. In order to counter the Chinese threat, they are increasing their military and political dependence on the United States which results in undermining stability of the region.

At the same time, despite its status as a leading power in the region, China is currently experiencing several major economic, political and social challenges. After the pandemic, China's economy cannot fully recover and return to high GDP growth rates (before COVID-19, China's yearly GDP growth was above 6-7%). Politically, China's situation is complicated by trade wars with the US, the Taiwan issue, and problematic relations with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines – US satellites that are ramping up anti-China rhetoric. Socially, China faces the main challenge of the last 20 years – a falling birth rate, a growing elderly population and the consequent inability to rely on cheap labor as a means of making work cheaper – ans that was one of China's main competitive advantages.

Among the risks for the region are tariff wars by the US, India-China confrontation and increasing militarization. Obviously, this development will be facilitated by the U.S., but may meet with limitations: the APAC countries, although they have a number of territorial and political claims against each other, are so far trying to keep the situation from escalating.

The most striking example is the relationship between China and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) economic bloc. ASEAN includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia. In fact, every country in this grouping has unresolved territorial issues with Beijing, with problems between China, Vietnam and the Philippines over the ownership of a group of islands in the South China Sea being particularly strong. At the same time, trade growth between ASEAN countries and China has approached 100% over the past five years.

If the dynamics of positive growth continues, it is the APAC countries that may compete with the West and the US in the future. If the threat of a military confrontation between the U.S. and China is not realized – and elites and decision-makers in both countries are not convinced of the necessity of such a development – there is a high probability that this confrontation will develop through trade and economic methods.

Latin America: the United States' opposition to the formation of a new world order

Latin American countries have become more active in the global debate on the need to revise the current world order in favor of greater representation of the interests of the Global South. Against the backdrop of growing regionalization and competition between Western countries and, above all, China, Latin American countries once again have a chance to assert themselves as a center of power influencing the global balance of power. This will be hindered by the US policy, which views this macro-region exclusively as a zone of influence or even a semi-colony.

The most dangerous factor for practically all manufacturing countries of the Latin American region (primarily Mexico) on the part of the US is the wave of tariff duties that Donald Trump threatens to impose on exporting countries. The threats do not end there, however. Trump and radical Republicans intend to launch a campaign to expel migrants from Central and Latin American countries (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela), and most importantly, to ban Latin American countries from hosting Chinese investments. Attempts to disrupt well-coordinated trade and economic ties with China could particularly affect Brazil and Mexico, the largest producers of industrial products in Latin America.

Argentina, the most pro-American country in the region, which is now ruled by Trump associate Javier Milei, is likely to avoid the turbulence caused by the isolationist Biden administration. The Argentine authorities expect the US to provide the country with economic support, help it overcome decades of economic stagnation, and Argentina will thus become a regional leader, overtaking its historical rivals – Brazil and Mexico.

Against the backdrop of growing contradictions between China and Western countries, the Latin American region may become another arena where the interests of a superpower (the United States) and the main contender for this status (China) will collide. Unlike Argentina, which relies entirely on the U.S., Latin American exporting countries will try to defend their economic interests by protecting initiatives that limit U.S. dominance. Under these conditions, China and Russia have an opportunity to gain a foothold in Latin America. There may even be ad hoc cooperation with the EU, which also seeks to develop trade with Latin American countries in order to contain the United States.

Africa: economic and political decolonization of the region

The main outcome for Africa as a macro-region is its liberation from neo-colonial dependence, primarily on France. Paris, for which Africa has been a source of cheap resources and labor for the past 50 years, as well as a profitable outpost in the Global South, is beginning to reduce its position in the region in favor of Russia and China. If last year the biggest loss for France was Niger, a supplier of uranium to the French nuclear industry, this year Senegal and Chad have announced their intention to end military-strategic cooperation with France. Thus, if just 5-10 years ago France dominated the whole of West Africa, now its zone of influence is narrowing to Congo and Côte d'Ivoire.

The ongoing political transformation of the African continent is beneficial primarily to China and Russia. For example, in the first eight months of 2024, trade turnover between Russia and Africa increased by 18.5%. The importance of developing contacts with Africa has been repeatedly stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the president, “ties (between Russia and Africa) are now, indeed, successfully developing, bringing mutual benefit to all our countries, contributing to economic and social growth and improving people's well-being”.

It is worth noting that in order to successfully defend its interests in Africa, Russia, and additionally China, will need to address the issue of Russian military bases in Syria – the Tartus naval and the Khmeimim air base in northwestern Syria. These bases have been a link between Russia and Africa, facilitating the flow of goods, weapons, and other resources to and from the African continent. Solving this problem will require Russia's efforts on the Middle East track and identifying the intentions of the new Syrian government. One way or another, the loss of Syrian military bases could seriously complicate Russia's future plans to “explore” Africa.

Besides, France's withdrawal from Africa should not give a false sense of victory in the battle for the region. Here we should not forget about the EU's attempts to use the African continent for its own purposes, mainly as a substitute for resources lost as a result of anti-Russian sanctions. Therefore, under the current circumstances, Russia should concentrate on gaining an economic and political foothold in Africa by thwarting Western attempts to return to the practices of neocolonialism and install pro-Western puppet governments in African countries.

• Analysis of key trends in the regions and countries of the Global South indicates that the Middle East has been and remains the most volatile region. The largest economic potential is concentrated in Asia, and Latin America will become a battleground between the U.S. and China. Finally, Africa is on the path of rejecting French influence.

• Under these circumstances, it is crucial for Russia to define its geopolitical priorities and methods of achieving them in the near future. It is obvious that now, despite focusing its main forces on the conduct of the NWO, it is in Africa that Russia can consolidate and expand its sphere of influence, but this will require renewed activity in the Middle East. There, Russia needs to solve the problem of regaining full control over its military bases, which means countering Israel's pro-American policy and the complete weakening of Iran, which continues to act as a deterrent for Israel.

• It is possible to develop mutually beneficial cooperation between Russia and the countries of Asia and Latin America, but for this Russia needs to determine what it can offer these countries economically and politically. As economic growth in Western countries fades and positive economic dynamics persist, Russia has the potential to attract investments and companies from Asia, especially Vietnam and Malaysia, the countries closest to Russia in the Asia-Pacific region, with the exception of China and India.