Star Wars: world politics in space
In recent years, space has become more relevant than ever. There are more countries seeking to take their place in this race, projects are becoming more expensive, and the ambitions of the leading countries are more alarming. Russia is trying to abandon the ISS and help China in its plans for the Moon. Meanwhile, the US, having noticeably depleted its resources, is concluding agreements with its strategic partners and wants to regulate the process of space exploration.
Orion constellation: Russia, China, and the USA
Modern US space programs cover many areas: from the exploration of the Moon and Mars to the development of commercial flights. The main direction for NASA is lunar projects. The Artemis program is aimed at returning Americans to the Moon to create infrastructure, including a base and research modules. They will be needed in the future to study and use lunar resources, as well as in preparation for the next mission to Mars.
In 2022, the first stage of the program, the Artemis-1 mission, was successfully launched: the Space Launch System rocket launched the Orion ship into orbit around the Moon without a crew on board. In December 2024, it became known about the ship's return to Earth and the beginning of its testing for the second stage - a 10-day manned flight. According to plans, it will take place in April 2026, after which the third stage of the mission will become possible - landing the first woman on the Moon. It is worth noting that the timing of the Artemis program, which began in 2017, has been repeatedly postponed. Initially, it was planned to land a man on the surface of the Moon as early as 2025. At the same time, the developers did not come up with anything fundamentally new: the main components of the program already existed at the time of the program's launch. For example, the Orion spacecraft is a legacy of the Constellation program of the early 2000s, which was developed by the American military-industrial corporation Lockheed Martin Corporation and Airbus Defence and Space, the defense division of Airbus Group. Work on the project began during the George W. Bush administration, but with the arrival of Barack Obama, funding for Constellation ceased. The only component that was decided to be finalized was the SLS super-heavy launch vehicle, which was based on Space Shuttle and Ares V technologies. They wanted to test the SLS in action as early as 2017, and to begin manned tests by 2021, but due to a lack of funding, the deadlines were constantly pushed back. The nation's emotional turmoil from the 2003 Columbia shuttle disaster also played a role.
Boeing is developing the SLS launch vehicle. Like Airbus, it is also working on other major US space projects: it conducts research on the ISS and, together with Lockheed Martin Corporation, founded ULA, a company that provides launches for spacecraft from the Atlas V, Delta II, and Delta IV launch vehicles. Despite its considerable experience, Boeing's second half of 2024 was marred by reports of astronauts stranded on the ISS. The Starliner spacecraft, developed by the company in 2014 and first sent into low-Earth orbit in June 2024, broke down. Five of its 28 engines shut down during docking with the International Space Station. After tests on Earth, Boeing representatives named a possible cause - the oxidizer supply valve was blocked, which in turn was caused by the swelling of the Teflon seal. At the same time, problems with the ship were recorded back on Earth, but it was decided not to cancel the launch. Since the company does not have a spare ship, astronauts Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams will be forced to spend about 10 months on the ISS instead of a week. NASA received permission to send an unreliable ship into space, which also negatively affects the reputation of the space agency. Such troubles only emphasize the falling popularity of "American space" and opinions are increasingly heard that China is taking the lead in this race. The non-profit organization "American Foreign Policy Council" calls China the most assertive player in the space sector. Since 2016, Beijing has made a series of major achievements: the completion and operation of the BeiDou navigation satellite system, the completion of the three-stage lunar exploration program - "orbit, landing and return", the first stages of building a space station, and the Tianwen-1 interplanetary journey to explore Mars. The mission, which launched on July 23, 2020, includes an orbiter, a lander and a rover. In seven months, the device traveled about 470 million kilometers and landed on Mars in the Utopia Planitia region in May 2021.
China became the second country after the United States to successfully land a Mars rover. Zhurong, which arrived on the red planet as part of the station, worked longer than planned and collected data on the composition of the soil and the atmosphere until May 2022.
Beijing is actively developing lunar missions. The Change program, aimed at studying the Earth's satellite, was launched in 2007 with the sending of an automatic interplanetary station. In 2010, a clone of the AMS, but already equipped with a new laser altimeter and a high-resolution camera, reached the orbit of the Moon. The third stage of the mission was marked by the soft landing of the Yutu lunar rover, which found a new type of lunar soil - basalts of an unusual composition. In 2019, Change-4 made the first soft landing in history on the far side of the Moon. The rover managed to collect soil samples, thanks to which it will be possible to shed light on the history of the evolution of the Moon and Earth, since there is still a version that the satellite of our planet was formed as a result of an asteroid collision with it. In 2020, during the fifth stage of the mission, samples were successfully delivered to Earth.
China's national space exploration program is designed until 2050. Beijing is interested in finding answers to questions about the origin of the Universe, searching for gravitational waves, exoplanets and extraterrestrial life. Such plans sound like a challenge to space powers, but in the foreseeable future it is unlikely to compete with China with its developed economy and technical power.
In 2021, Russia and China signed a memorandum of understanding on the creation of a joint station for research on the Moon. As part of this mission, the countries plan to make 5 flights. To supply the station with energy, it is planned to place a power unit on the Earth's natural satellite in 2033-2035.
In May 2024, Yuri Borisov, Director General of the Roscosmos State Corporation, approved the schedule for the creation of the Russian Orbital Station (ROS), which will become a haven for Russian cosmonauts instead of the ISS, whose life will be supported only until 2028. It is planned to manufacture 6 orbital modules and launch them into orbit between 2027 and 2033. The need to build the station was, on the one hand, due to US sanctions and the desire to make the work of our cosmonauts safer, and on the other hand, our own station will allow us to occupy a more advantageous orbit, which will allow us to survey up to 90% of Russia's territory. For comparison, only 10% is visible from the ISS.
Satellites: balance of power
As of 2023, there were more than 80 space agencies in the world, and world government spending on space programs was estimated at $117 billion, according to estimates from the Institute for International Policy Studies. Commercial space products and services, infrastructure, and supporting industries were valued at a total of $428 billion. Moreover, last year a world record was set: 17 people were in orbit at the same time. However, despite these achievements, the latest data shows that only 16 countries with interests in space have the ability to conduct space launches, and only 7 can send probes to the Moon, Mars, or deep space. Among the latter, in addition to Russia, the United States, China, and the European Agency, also Italy, Japan, and India.
The Italian Space Agency, or Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), is responsible for the Cassini-Huygens mission to Saturn, and is contributing to the Mars Express and Venus Express projects of the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA), as well as Rosetta, which landed a probe on a comet in 2014.
The Indian Space Research Organisation is one of the few agencies with the capability to launch satellites and conduct extraterrestrial missions, making India a leading player in space research and development. India's first satellite, Aryabhata, was launched by the Soviet Union in 1975, and the country launched its first satellite into space in 1980. Since then, India has launched probes to the Moon and Mars, and has built one of the world's largest fleets of navigation satellites.
Japan is one of the world's leading space powers. Its national aerospace research and development is overseen by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Japan launched its first satellite, Osumi, into space in February 1970, becoming the fourth country to have such a capability. It currently operates a fleet of meteorological, communications, and astronomy satellites.
In addition, other space powers are preparing plans for research projects, but at the level of cooperation with larger and more resourceful agencies. France’s National Center for Space Studies (CNES) is working with the German space agency DLR to develop a reusable launch vehicle powered by liquid oxygen and methane. Australia is trying to wedge itself into space research, for which purpose the Australian Space Agency (ASA) was founded in 2018, and has announced plans to team up with NASA to launch a new lunar rover by 2026. Brazil is cooperating with the United States, being a partner in NASA’s program to send a manned spacecraft to the Moon.
The Israel Space Agency (ISA) has signed cooperation agreements with NASA, CNES, Canada's CSA, India's ISRO, ASI, and Roscosmos. North Korea has attempted at least six satellite launches, and succeeded in at least two. Several additional programs have been announced, including missions to launch lunar probes, explore Mars, participate in manned space flights, and develop a shuttle-like reusable launch vehicle.
The world community is aware that the growing interest in space could lead to a new conflict. At the same time, none of the current players officially consider activities in orbit, satellites, or other planets as a competitive sphere, and all strive for peaceful coexistence beyond Earth. However, calls for an international summit and the signing of a series of international treaties that would regulate this sphere are becoming increasingly loud, especially from the United States. In the problematic field, Washington highlights the work of thousands of objects in low-Earth orbit, space traffic management, space resource activities, data diplomacy, and the exploitation of the Moon and other celestial bodies. Also in need of elaboration are issues of lunar orbit management, the development of several space stations, and the creation of lunar bases.
Perpetual engine of conflicts
Now space is considered by researchers as an extension of the earthly landscape. The national interests of states and businesses extend far beyond the Earth. In his book “The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World,” Tim Marshall believes that using the Moon as a launch pad to Mars is only one of the goals of lunar programs. More practical is the extraction of rare and important metals in the production of technologies. Evidence of metal oxide deposits in some large craters of the Moon has been discovered on the satellite. It is also believed that the Moon contains reserves of silicon, titanium, rare earth metals and aluminum, one of the main suppliers of which is Russia today. Another important element is helium-3, which can theoretically be used in nuclear fusion: the element will give more energy, but will be less radioactive and more environmentally friendly. On Earth, only about 0.0001% of helium is helium-3, but there may be a million tons of this substance on the Moon. Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist of China's Lunar Exploration Program, believes that harnessing the power of helium-3 "will solve humanity's energy needs for about 10,000 years."
Gazprom, the largest supplier of helium, shared plans to develop a technology for extracting helium-3 in 2018. Thus, the new space race completely affects Russia's interests as a supplier of rare chemical elements and materials on Earth. Overtaking Moscow and occupying its niche in space means significantly reshaping the economy and industrial networks. Successful colonization of the Moon will give a country or alliance advantages comparable to those enjoyed by maritime powers in previous eras.
There is enormous potential in mining asteroids. For example, mining and returning platinum or gold could make a person a trillionaire overnight, says Bertrand Danault, associate professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the College of Engineering. There are currently millions of asteroids in our solar system, and about 2 million of them are larger than 1 kilometre. Recent missions to approach, orbit and land on asteroids have shown the potential for industrial exploitation. The first outpost in this search for treasure in space will not be gravity or the Moon, but space satellites.
Bold scenarios paint a picture of a power struggle over threats to international communications networks and global positioning systems. If satellites are destroyed or disabled, a major industrial economy like the UK would lose about £1 billion a day due to supply chain disruption. Military campaigns on Earth would also be ineffective, since satellites play a crucial role in communications, navigation, reconnaissance and monitoring.
However, all these plans are limited by funding issues. For example, to mine minerals in space, it is not enough to solve the problem of landing on a satellite, planet or asteroid. We need mining equipment that can operate in a vacuum or in an atmosphere different from ours, we need technologies to transport the extracted minerals to Earth, we need launch-capable bases on the Moon or other satellites, because the amount of energy needed to go beyond the Earth's atmosphere is too large and too expensive for industrial quantities. So humanity is still making small steps in this sense, but the consequences of each of them can be irreparable for the existing order.
