The last flight of GPS
The problem of modernization of the U.S. satellite navigation system, which controls the work of air defense, missile systems and is an important component of the country's defense potential, is becoming more acute due to the growing threats to GPS signals. Today Washington realizes its inadequacy in the latest satellite navigation capabilities that China and Russia can boast of. For this reason, the U.S. government is actively engaged in improving the capabilities of the national Armed Forces with the help of advanced quantum technologies, which in the future will make the GPS system more resistant to external threats.
GPS: a system that demands change
Rivalry in space began in the 20th century with the confrontation between the USA and the USSR, at that time the countries achieved great results in the industry, which for a long time remained unattainable for the rest of the countries due to the lack of necessary facilities and knowledge. However, with the development of technology, as well as the increasing availability of space to all spacefaring nations, the pioneers of this industry have new competitors in the form of India, the EU and China. In recent decades, in the light of complex geopolitical relations, the leading space powers have been striving for autonomy and the focus of their attention has shifted to satellite navigation, in which American systems lag far behind. Competitors to the well-known GPS system include China's Beidou and Russia's GLONASS, as well as Europe's Galileo and India's regional NavIC system.
The National Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) Advisory Board is puzzled by the lagging U.S. GPS system as its capabilities are significantly weaker than China's, taking away U.S. leadership in positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) technology.
The US lagging behind is due to insufficient attention to the introduction of new technologies in satellite systems, unlike China and the EU. Thus, Washington has not yet fully replaced the satellites of the 1990s, and the new generation of GPS III satellites, launched into orbit for the first time in 2018, is already outdated compared to analogues of other countries. The GPS III project was approved by the U.S. Congress in 2000, and the first satellite was expected to be launched in 2014. However, technical problems with payload development led to a four-year delay.
The problem of vulnerability of the U.S. satellite navigation system affects not only the smooth operation of civilian infrastructure, but also military infrastructure used by the U.S. Government for direct or indirect participation in foreign military campaigns. Thus, GPS is today the primary navigation system for U.S. military aircraft, ships, vehicles, personnel, and various weapons systems, which receives GPS coordinates of targets to accurately engage them. However, in October 2023, the United States delivered a batch of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine without GPS, explaining that Russian REB systems are capable of jamming and intercepting signals from U.S. systems.
That's why in May 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) announced a call for applications for the Transition to Quantum Sensors (TQS) Program. Through this program, DIU hopes to find new solutions within 5 years to develop and demonstrate quantum sensors that will play a key role in improving the capabilities of positioning, navigation, and synchronization technologies for military operations amid growing threats to the GPS signal. Through them, the U.S. Department of Defense hopes to significantly change the inventory of military technologies that meet Washington's tactical requirements and the country's national security question.
China's threat to the U.S.
China's Beidou is twice as powerful as the U.S. GPS, as it has more than 50 satellites in orbit and 10 times as many monitoring stations around the world. According to a Belfer Center report, 11 sub-Saharan countries have already received Chinese reference stations, and four more countries - Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia and Myanmar - have authorized their installation. Due to its vast coverage area, the Chinese navigation system provides greater availability and accuracy of PNT data, which is attracting the attention of investors from developing countries in Africa and Southeast Asia.
Beidou's active development is due to the PRC government's use of soft power, cooperation with advanced space powers, and progress in the domestic market for PNT technology. All of these factors inevitably undermine U.S. political and economic influence as a leader in navigation systems. While Washington is experiencing stagnant satellite navigation system (GNSS) development, Beijing is constantly working to improve and implement advanced technologies to achieve a dominant position in the industry. In the future, this will strengthen the PRC's influence on the global satellite infrastructure, as well as increase the dependence of various regions of the world on Chinese technology and services.
Another reason for the United States of America's concern about China's growing superiority in the satellite industry is the use of the Beidou system for espionage purposes on behalf of unfriendly countries. According to experts, ground systems that are being actively installed in African countries and interconnected Chinese GNSS receivers could theoretically contain backdoors and other malicious capabilities that could be used by the Chinese Government or Chinese companies to spy, conduct surveillance, carry out cyberattacks, steal data or interfere in the internal affairs of a foreign country, which could trigger a wave of protests or disorder among the population.
Thus, the U.S. is currently experiencing a stagnant period in the field of GNSS against the backdrop of China's dramatic development of space technology. Despite the fact that Washington is taking measures to introduce new technologies in GPS modernization, the lag behind Beijing continues to be significant, which jeopardizes the provision of US national security. In the nearest future, Washington will be forced to revise its strategy for satellite navigation systems, diversify the satellite market by using European or Indian analogues, and team up with U.S. commercial companies such as SpaceX in military and civilian developments.