The unification of the Arab world in the context of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
The local Israeli-Palestinian conflict is developing into a global confrontation in the Middle East. The United States is calling on the world community to stand shoulder to shoulder with Israel, the European Union is announcing an end to any financial aid to the Palestinians, and major technology giants, like the conflict in Ukraine, are imposing their security principles by restricting access to critical infrastructure. For example, Google has already announced the shutdown of traffic data on the territory of Israel and the Gaza Strip.
In this context, the international community expects the unification of the Muslim world to protect the Gaza Strip from Israel, however, despite the commitment of all countries in the region to the global ideas of "Palestinian independence", none of them is in a hurry to take active steps. The rapid radicalization of the Arab world is dangerous, in the first place, for the United States, where there are at least 4 million Muslims, and the countries of the European Union – more than 25 million followers of Islam.
Division in the Muslim World
On October 7, 2023, members of the HAMAS group invaded the territory of Israel and established control over a number of military facilities. In response, the Israeli Defense Army (IDF) launched shelling of the Gaza Strip and announced the start of the counter-terrorist operation "Iron Swords". Almost all countries in the Middle East have condemned Israel’s cruelty and expressed solidarity with the Palestinian people, but HAMAS’ actions received the greatest support from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
Relations between Iran and Israel have always been tense, but achieved their peak during the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Although Iran’s permanent mission to the UN stated that the country will intervene directly in the conflict only if Israel attacks the Islamic Republic. But the United States, fearing Iranian offensive actions, has already sent a squadron of F-16 fighters to the region to strengthen its military presence. The cautious statements of the IRI government give grounds to believe that the country will avoid official interference in the conflict and is not interested in its escalation, although it will continue to support groups actively engaged in hostilities, and therefore there is a risk of being dragged into the war. Israeli Economy and Industry Minister Nir Barkat said that in the event of a direct attack by the Lebanese Hezbollah movement from the northern front, the country would be forced to attack both the movement itself and Iran, since it is believed that the IRI is the coordinator of Hezbollah.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have warned that they will also attack Israel if the United States intervenes militarily in the conflict against HAMAS. In addition, Prime Minister Sanaa Abdulaziz bin Habtur said that the state would attack Israeli occupation ships in the Red Sea if attacks on the Gaza Strip continued. According to unconfirmed data, Yemen has already fired missiles toward Israel, but they were shot down by the U.S. Navy’s missile defense.
Along with Yemen, Iraq also supports HAMAS in the conflict against Israel and is ready to directly engage in hostilities in the event of U.S. intervention. On October 18, 2023, the US military base of Ain al-Assad in Iraq was bombed and attacked by drones. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance, which supports HAMAS. On the same day, the military airport, where the U.S. forces are stationed, was bombed with drones.
According to unconfirmed information from the media, columns with Iraqi volunteers are moving towards the border with Jordan in order to make a passage through the territory of the neighboring country and enter combat on the side of the Palestinians.
Thus, three countries – Iran, Iraq and Yemen – have already expressed their readiness to directly join the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the event of U.S. intervention. At the same time, Iran’s entry into hostilities will be crucial, as despite the statements of the IRI on the use of exclusively peaceful atom in its energy field, the probability of the use of nuclear weapons remains. According to Israeli officials, Iran’s nuclear program remains a threat to national security, the governments of both countries do not rule out the possibility of mutual nuclear strikes, which will be a regional humanitarian and political catastrophe.
Syria and Lebanon also expressed their unambiguous support for Palestine, condemning Israel’s "systematic aggression" against the Palestinian people and stressing the need to stop it. The Shia militant group Hezbollah has openly supported HAMAS, resorting to active service in the south of the country. Thus, in the first days of the clash from the territory of Lebanon, the militants carried out several strikes on Israeli military objects, in response to which the IDF fired the fortifications of Hezbollah. On October 11, there were reports of Israeli shelling from Syria (probably also from Hezbollah). In response seven Israeli fighters attacked Syrian airports in Aleppo and Damascus: the runways were partially damaged and the work of airports was disrupted. It is known that the strikes were carried out from the Mediterranean Sea without entering Syrian airspace.
Despite the determination, military potential of the Lebanese group's army, as well as its own motives to "venge" Israel, according to experts, Hezbollah is not ready to enter the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and open a second front yet. This is due to the limited capabilities of the movement and the pragmatic approach of party leaders who do not want to allow the complete destruction of their state by the forces of Tel Aviv and Washington.
Saudi Arabia has also taken a consistent stance and blamed Israel for the escalation of the conflict. Shortly before the clashes between HAMAS and the IDF, Saudi Arabia intended to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a defense pact with the United States, providing for Washington’s assistance in developing its own nuclear program. That is why many experts call the possible rapprochement between the SA and Israel one of the reasons for the sudden attack by HAMAS. And while Israel "sees no reason to refuse to normalize relations", Saudi Arabia has frozen negotiations, supported HAMAS’ actions, advocated support for the Palestinian people, and called on the world community to establish Palestine within the 1967 borders to ensure security in the region. In the context of the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the first telephone conversation between the president of Iran and the prince of Saudi Arabia was held, during which the parties agreed to support Palestine. According to unconfirmed data, Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis even started moving units of Yemeni volunteers across the territory of the SA.
Algeria has not expressed its support for HAMAS, but has expressed its solidarity with the Palestinian people. On 21-22 October, protests in 58 provinces of Algeria were held in support of Palestine. The Libyan House of Representatives condemned the "Arab and international silence" in support of the Palestinian cause, stressing that it will remain a central issue for Muslims around the world.
Egypt has taken a neutral position, which fears active interference and involvement in an unwanted conflict. On the one hand, anti-Israel sentiment in Egypt is strong enough, caused by the memory of the "six-day" war. According to the egyptian government, the Israeli military operation in Gaza is not aimed at fighting HAMAS, but at pushing out the Palestinians themselves. On the other hand, while Egypt is actively resisting the pressure of the European Union trying to persuade it to accept Palestinian refugees, Cairo believes that the chance to create a national Palestinian state in this case will be lost. Of course, the main reason lies in the concerns of the Egyptian authorities about possible social destabilization and the financial crisis caused by the flow of refugees. An agreement is currently being developed between Egypt and the EU, according to which the European Union will provide Egypt with funds to fight unemployment and financial support, which should positively impact the economic situation in the country, while Cairo will limit migration to the territory of European states.
In addition, Egypt is trying to play the role of a link between the two states, assisting Israel in the release of HAMAS hostages, passing humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, etc. A peace summit was held in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declared the need to provide international protection to the Palestinian people and expressed his amazement at the silence of various countries over the “collective punishment” of the people in Gaza.
We were not among the participants of this summit, but we closely followed it, and we did not hear a sharp condemnation from these countries of the terrorist act that occurred on 7 October. These countries, of course, know that terrorism is a danger not only for Israel.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also affected the internal political situation in Jordan. The authorities of the country announced that they will open military bases for U.S. Air Force aircraft ready to provide support to Israel, while on the territory of Jordan there is a U.S. Air Force military base, where 12 F-16s are located. The official policy received decisive resistance from the local population: the people of Jordan held demonstrations aimed at expressing support for HAMAS and reminding that the queen of the country was from Palestine, and social media appeared calls for the overthrow of the ruling Hashemite dynasty.
In this context, Jordan joined the condemnation of Israel’s strike on a Gaza hospital, and also canceled the summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, saying that "there is now no point in talking about anything but ending the war."
According to some reports, the Jordanian government is under pressure from other Arab countries. For example, the Yemeni Houthis threaten the country with a missile strike if they refuse to deploy and pass through their territory volunteers. The Hezbollah movement (according to other sources, the FATH militants) also threatens a series of terrorist attacks in case it refuses to deploy its combat units.
Open support for Israel, along with the United States and the countries of the European Union expressed the UAE. They condemned HAMAS’s attacks on Israel and urged Israel and Palestine to "abstain from escalation". According to unofficial data, the UAE has also informally warned Syria against interference in the conflict. In this context, the convergence of the UAE and Egypt, the presidents of the countries agreed to intensify consultations and promote diplomatic efforts to reduce the level of violence and escalation.
The Middle East conflict has long gone beyond the borders of the region, it is not only an ideological clash from which the unification of the Arab world is expected, but also the struggle for transport corridors from Asia to Europe, the fields of the Eastern Mediterranean and the opportunity to influence financial, religious and political processes around the world.
We are participating in the Third World War against radical Islam. This is not just about Israel. I understand the commitment of Europe and the United States. This is not just our war. The war is also going on inside Europe. In radical communities
Tensions between the major world powers are increasing. In the past week alone, U.S. troops have been attacked 10 times in Iraq and 3 times in Syria with the use of missiles and drones. In response, the Pentagon increased its military presence by deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group headed by Dwight Eisenhower to the region. Germany sent elite special forces units to Cyprus, and there was also a Navy unit known as the "Battle Swimmers". China has sent six military vessels to the region for the possibility of "fast response".
Funding of HAMAS
Armed clashes between Israelis and Palestinians have been ongoing for decades, but recent events on the Arabian Peninsula have shaken the world community, forcing countries to split into two camps: the supporters of Israel and the Palestinian HAMAS movement, and to reflect on how a small enclave of less than 2 million people has been able to prepare such a massive attack on one of the region’s most protected states with a powerful military industrial complex.
The economy in Gaza has been in a critical position since HAMAS came to power, as the surrounding Palestinian territory, Israel and Egypt, in response to regular shelling by the enclave, organized a transport and energy blockade of the sector, which lasted from 2007-2010. Thousands of Palestinians have been forced to leave their homes due to lack of food and medicines. During the HAMAS-controlled isolation, the population of Gaza received only 25% of the imports recorded in December 2005.
Later, the situation in the enclave stabilized, the new leadership of the territory found a way to bypass the blockade, using a complex and ramified network of tunnels, allowing to deliver goods bypassing the CPC from Egypt. In addition to food and medicines, weapons were also delivered to Gaza.
There are currently several sources of funding for the Gaza-controlling organization, including official payments from Iran, aid from Turkey and Qatar, indirect involvement of Egypt and the United States in sponsoring the group, but none of them officially confirm their involvement in the HAMAS operation.
For example, in recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran – another Israeli antagonist – has allocated about $8 million monthly to the Islamic Resistance Movement, and in 2018 in exchange for providing information about the location of Israeli missile warehouses, Tehran raised the amount of financial support to a record $30 million.
In addition to payments, Iran supplied military equipment: in 2014, the UN confirmed that the container carrier with the cargo detained in the Red Sea was of Iranian origin. On board the ship were found missiles of the type M-302, mortars and ammunition.
Qatar and Turkey, in turn, also do not lag behind Tehran in the patronage of the Islamist movement. After all, it is Doha and Ankara that have been the haven of the leaders and political bureau of HAMAS for more than a decade. It is believed that under the guise of Turkish convoys with humanitarian aid, delivered to the territory of the sector in agreement with Tel Aviv, weapons and ammunition could have been transferred. But if Istanbul has recently, in the context of its rapprochement with Israel, begun to oppress supporters of the controlled enclave movement living in Turkey, then Qatar continues to carry out regular monetary transactions in support of the militants. For example, in 2021, Qatar allocated a grant of $360 million to rebuild the Gaza Strip and pay families in need, especially after Israel’s "Guardian of the Walls" operation.
As for the U.S. and Egypt, the supply of humanitarian aid and a wide range of goods to the Gaza Strip has involuntarily become a source of enrichment for the group. All the transferred products fell into the hands of HAMAS and were subject to enormous taxes, from which the militants earned more than $12 million a month.
In addition, according to the media, a declassified correspondence of the U.S. State Department was published on the network that U.S. officials were aware of problems with supplies, but did not take any action to resolve the situation. In a statement, Republican Congresswoman Marjory Taylor Green said that Washington could not only covertly finance HAMAS, but also supply it with weapons. She noted that American weapons were found in the Palestinians despite the fact that the US did not sell them. This implies that the weapons could have fallen into the hands of groups from Afghanistan or Ukraine.
In addition to helping like-minded countries, U.S. investigators found that HAMAS received funding from online donors who sent them cryptocurrencies. According to reports, to reveal the addresses of cryptocurrencies that people could donate to, the militants used social media platforms including X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
Today, none of the countries in the Middle East desires an escalation of the conflict and a transformation of the clash between Israel and the Gaza Strip into a Middle East war. Increasing U.S. military presence in the region and their direct involvement in hostilities could provoke a number of countries, such as Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, to join the war on the side of HAMAS. In this case, a change in the ratio of forces, namely the accession to the dispute of a possible nuclear player in the future, can push the conflict to the beginning of World War III. However, the most realistic scenario is that Arab countries will continue to help the Gaza Strip indirectly, without direct involvement in the conflict through covert funding, arms supplies, and humanitarian aid.
