The uranium trap for France
The French Republic, a major player in world politics, was ranked 23rd in the ranking of prosperous states in 2023, according to a study by the Legatum Institute. The most vulnerable area of the Republic was economic, especially related to infrastructure and market access, among other things, import tariff barriers, border control, energy and other types of resources were assessed. Experts attribute this to the fact that nuclear power plants account for the majority of power generation in France, while 36% of the market for scarce enriched uranium used as fuel for nuclear power plants is under the growing influence of Russia, with which a sanctions war is being conducted, and longtime uranium supplier Niger has rapidly withdrawn from further cooperation in this area. Thus, having lost two stable suppliers of radioactive raw materials, Paris is on the verge of changes in the energy sector that could affect the Republic's position on the world stage.
Nuclear energy of France
The peak of the regional nuclear power industry was in the 70s and 80s of the last century, when France built most of its nuclear power plants. Today the Republic ranks first in the world in terms of the share of nuclear power in the energy balance of the state: about 70% of electricity is produced by 56 operating power units at 19 nuclear power plants, which allow France to maintain the lowest electricity tariffs in the European space. That is why the country also leads the world in terms of electricity exports abroad, supplying its neighbors with up to 20% of the surplus, which brings up to €3 billion in revenue annually.
The existing conversion capacity enables the full supply of enriched uranium to the domestic needs of France, while the development of ore in the country is not being carried out, and its purchase is carried out in Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and until recently in significant volumes in Niger.
However, in the early 2010s, under the influence of the EU's green agenda and under direct pressure from Germany, Austria and Luxembourg, Paris was forced to freeze some projects to build new and modernize old nuclear power plants. In 2012, President François Hollande planned to reduce nuclear power generation to 50% by 2025 as part of the “energy transition”, but already in 2016 20 out of 58 power units were shut down. After Emmanuel Macron came to power, the green agenda remained relevant for some time: 14 more reactors were planned to be shut down by 2035, also due to their critical condition. At the same time, the winter of 2021-2022 was abnormally cold in Europe, the demand for electricity increased dramatically, and France was forced to buy resources from Belgium and Spain. Having assessed the prospects of the energy sector and seeing it as a guarantee of French independence, at the beginning of 2022 President Macron announced a course for its restoration and the beginning of work on the development of projects for new power plants. This decision seems logical, given the absence of fossil energy resources in France and the objective advantages of nuclear power in terms of environmental friendliness and low cost while meeting safety requirements.
Within the framework of the implemented strategy, in the period from 2035 to 2045, it is planned to build about six EPR generation II reactors (EPR2) - a type of water power reactor developed in France - the total cost of construction is estimated at €50 billion. And over the next 20 years, until 2065, E. Macron proposed to build eight more similar reactors. EPR units are the basis of France's foreign cooperation with Finland and Great Britain, and despite the difficulties caused by the energy crisis and the constant delay in the implementation of the work, we can talk about some "energy" successes of Paris. In January 2024, the French Electricite de France (EdF) received authorization to build two more EPR-1600 power units in the UK at the Sizewell C nuclear power plant. This is evidenced by the figures: for 2023, French operator EdF recorded sales of $150 billion and a net profit of $10.7 billion - the company managed to reach a record high after a loss-making 2022.
Possibility of dependency
Only two countries in the world have a complete set of technological projects for uranium utilization from deposit exploration to waste utilization and completion of the NPP life cycle - Russia and France. Since the 1970s, bilateral interaction between scientists from these countries has been systematically developing. In May 2018, with the support of the presidents on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a Strategic Document on Russian-French Partnership in the Peaceful Use of Atomic Energy was signed on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, declaring, among other things, engineering and supply of equipment for NPPs, as well as supply of nuclear fuel for commercial and scientific purposes. The agreement resulted in contracts for Russia to provide services for reprocessing spent nuclear fuel for reuse, integration of French automated control systems for nuclear power plants, and a host of other areas of interaction with the peaceful atom. For example, in 2018, the Russian company "TENEX" and France's EdF signed a long-term contract for the period from 2022 to 2032, according to which EdF was to send regenerated uranium to Russia for enrichment and further return to France. The signing of this agreement enabled Russia to further improve technologies for reprocessing regenerated uranium and effectively opened access for domestic nuclear fuel cycle products and services to the global market.
Prior to the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, there was a steady increase in trade between Moscow and Paris, for the period from 2017 to 2022, it amounted to 31.5%.
However, after the start of the SMO in Ukraine, Paris was one of the initiators of economic pressure on Moscow. The Republic, together with other Western states, gradually imposed restrictions both on Russian organizations and individuals and on trade in goods and science-intensive technologies. As a consequence, the trade turnover between Russia and France decreased by more than 70% in 2023. At the same time, in 2022 France imported uranium from Russia by 250% more than in 2021 and brought total imports to €359 million. In addition, despite the sanctions imposed by the European Parliament on Rosatom, in February 2023 France and Hungary blocked the inclusion in the 10th package of sanctions of a ban on cooperation with Moscow in the nuclear sphere, as well as on the supply of nuclear fuel from Russia to the EU, explaining their position by the fact that a large number of nuclear power plants around the world use Russian raw materials. While the U.S. imposed sanctions on some Rosatom subsidiaries in April 2023 and banned imports of uranium products from Russia in May 2024, the EU has not imposed any restrictions in the nuclear sector to date, which is a clear indicator of dependence on Russia. For example, the EU has closed its ports to most cargo traffic from Russia, with the exception of nuclear fuel and other goods necessary for civilian nuclear capabilities. According to Eurostat and the UN Comtrade platform, between January 2023 and June 2024, France, Germany, South Korea and the United States among unfriendly countries bought Russian enriched uranium, but France accounted for the largest amount of this resource, accounting for 60.5% ($428.6 million) of the total.
In general opinion, the introduction of EU sanctions against Rosatom is unrealistic and impractical. This would put the nuclear industry of many countries in a deadlock.
Although Kazakhstan currently dominates the uranium market - 43% of the world's natural uranium production comes from the Kazakh Republic - it should be noted that in 2023 Russia became the world's number one uranium enricher, enriching 36%, and by some estimates up to 45%, of the world's uranium. This performance was achieved, among other things, through Uranium One, a division of Rosatom, which owns several mining facilities in Canada, the United States, Australia, Kazakhstan and South Africa. Thus, the Russian Federation's contribution to the global nuclear power industry, as well as the development of technologies in this area, becomes evident.
Lost opportunities
Over the past fifty years, the Fifth Republic has consistently gained control of uranium resources on the African continent. However, in its attempts to secure inexpensive uranium supplies from former French colonies on the Black Continent, it has distanced itself from mutually beneficial cooperation with these states, thereby cutting off the flow of strategic resources. One of such countries was Mali - in January 2013, France launched a military operation on its territory to fight radical Islamists. Various assumptions were made about the real reasons for the invasion of the African state, including "protection of potential Malian uranium mines". Despite the fact that at that time Mali was one of the promising states in the context of uranium prospecting, there was no such official and reliable data. Only according to media reports, there was an area of illegal mining of radioactive raw materials in northeastern Mali (on the border with Niger). In any case, France withdrew its contingent from Mali in 2022 and complicated relations with the local authorities due to the arrival of the U.S. government.
By the end of 2023, France, one of the founders of peaceful atom development, was the second largest producer and exporter of enriched uranium with a significant 20% of the market, with Italy and Kazakhstan being the main importers of uranium ores and concentrates to France. For many years, Paris received a significant share of valuable rock from Niger (about 25% of the needs of the entire European Union), where the development of mines was the company Areva SA, which changed its name to Orano as part of the restructuring in 2018. However, as a result of the July 2023 military coup, the new authorities in Niamey banned ore exports and suspended cooperation with the French side, indicating their interest in developing equal commodity-money relations with Moscow.
With the former [Western] partners, the exchange was not very good, so Africa now has to work with Russia.
Immediately after the events in the African republic, in August 2023, the Bloomberg agency drew public attention to the fact that with Niger joining Russia's zone of influence in the energy sphere, which also includes post-Soviet Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the share of global production of the four countries will exceed 60%, and the volume of uranium conversion and enrichment will become overwhelming. Thus, in the context of a global uranium deficit, the loss of one of the main suppliers of ore may significantly affect the fragile balance formed in this industry.
Despite its leading position in nuclear power, France is facing new obstacles that challenge its energy competitiveness. A combination of factors, such as deteriorating infrastructure, the loss of a major ore supplier in case of Niger, declining relations with the leader in nuclear fuel generation, as well as a growing deficit for the rare metal, is a serious challenge for Paris and forms risks that affect the energy independence and economic prosperity of a state that once opted for nuclear fuel. Therefore, the Republic needs to review its energy sector policy and seek new strategic partners in this area in order to consolidate its status as one of the world's strongest nuclear powers.
