The US and the Global South: no changes on the southern front
The growing Global South is seeking to redefine its role as a provider of resources and talent for the wealthy North. At the same time, nations of the Global South are not expecting American foreign policy to change with the election of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. While some differences between the candidates’ foreign policy views may be noticed, these differences are unlikely to change the US superpower stance in the world. However, the ways in which this policy is implemented may vary.
It is worth noting that the term "Global South" does not imply that the countries it refers to are united in opposition to the United States and the "Global North". There are numerous contradictions among developing countries, which the United States exploits to maintain their position as a cheap production base and resource supplier. In the late 2020s, we will probably see the United States’ attempts to exacerbate the tensions between India and China – two leading developing countries claiming to become superpowers in the 21st century.
Foreign policy views of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
If we look at American foreign policy since 1945, when the United States became a superpower, we see that there were not significant differences between Republican and Democratic administrations, although Democrats attempted to seem more peaceful and respectful of international law. However, history over the past 30 years shows that both Democrats and Republicans have pursued military interventions and violations against international law in order to maintain the position of the United States as the sole superpower.
What distinguishes Democrats from Republicans in foreign policy is the implementation methods, as well as the interests of the elites belonging to each party. Thus, Kamala Harris, a Democrat, supports globalism and the financial elites in the United States who are keen on expanding trade, strengthening the US dollar and their corporate power by promoting "green" agendas and digital currencies.
If Kamala Harris becomes President, the United States can be expected to engage with various international organizations under her leadership (UN, World Bank, WHO, etc.) and to sign trade agreements to help the expansion of American capital and finance into new markets. It can also be assumed that relations with countries in the Global South under a Democratic administration will be characterized by an emphasis on "carrots", such as assistance programs, investments, controlled migration agreements and green energy development, rather than "sticks", such as traditional foreign policy tools like sanctions and military intervention. This shift away from a more traditional Republican approach towards a cooperative and supportive stance with developing countries could lead to increased cooperation and investment which would benefit both the US and its partners.
Unlike Kamala Harris, who acts in the interests of large commercial and financial corporations, Donald Trump represents US industrial and military elites. They can be characterized as anti-globalists to some extent, as they are less interested in globalization and trade expansion. Instead, they advocate protectionism and support for American businesses within the United States only, limiting support for developing countries. The anti-globalist elite, including Trump, have a negative attitude towards green energy and international organizations such as the UN and WHO. These organizations are accused of serving China's interests.
Usually, countries in the South tend to look more favourably on democratic or globalist leaders, as anti-globalist policies can often threaten countries with “whips” in the form of sanctions and tariffs if they disagree. A notable example of this is the trade war between the US and China in the late 2010s and early 2020s, which was initiated by President Trump. Although Democrat Joe Biden came to power and did not cancel the tariffs imposed on China by the US, he has always supported the idea of establishing relations with China.
The USA and the Asia-Pacific region: China and India
Since the mid-2000s, the Asia-Pacific region has become crucial for the United States as a superpower. This is where the military and economic interests of the US and its rival, China, are concentrated. Washington does not want any country, including China, to dominate this region.
Regarding India, American elites, regardless of their party affiliation or political views, tend to agree on certain issues. Therefore, the arrival of either Harris or Trump is unlikely to change the status quo. For those elites who support Harris, India has become an attractive destination for investment, as well as a cheap source of labor, rather than China. On the other hand, anti-globalists seek to strengthen military cooperation and promote the development of advanced technologies with India. Both groups support India's role in counterbalancing China's influence.
Given the current geopolitical situation in the world, it is likely that differences in the approaches of Harris and Trump towards China will become apparent. Both Harris and Trump consider China to be a significant threat to the United States and both want to limit China's economic and military power. However, they intend to do so through different means.
Predicting Trump's future behavior may be somewhat easier due to his previous experience as President. Under his administration, the anti-China campaign in the US intensified, leading to the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and withdrawal of American investments from China. It is likely that Trump will continue to exert pressure on China through the use of "whips", such as strengthening military ties with countries like India, Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, which have territorial disputes with China, that the US can exploit.
Harris is likely to continue the confrontation with China in the spirit of the current administration, but he will also avoid escalation. Pressure on China will be exerted through the withdrawal of American companies from the Chinese market, the preservation of trade duties on Chinese products and comprehensive support for India. American politicians believe that India, which is gaining influence in Asia, should restrain China and divert its resources toward rivalry with India. This same US policy was also used against the USSR in the 1970s, when China itself was a country that the United States approached.
Middle East: Israel and the Gulf States + Iran
Now, many people refer to the Middle East as a "powder keg", suggesting the possibility of a conflict between Israel and Iran in the near future. While neither Harris nor Trump has questioned their support for Israel, it is likely that Harris would avoid taking radical measures against Iran, which is Israel's main enemy in the region, due to criticism from his supporters regarding Israel's actions in Palestine. Trump may also be influenced by criticism of these actions, which have been described as genocide by many due to the large number of civilian casualties. On the other hand, Harris is not deterred by this criticism and is prepared to increase his support for Israel further, especially in military matters.
In general, both Trump and Harris, if elected president, are likely to pursue similar policies in the Middle East. These include continuing to sell weapons to Gulf monarchies, supporting Israel, bombing dissenters in Syria and Yemen, and cooperating with Israeli intelligence against Iran. However, if Harris becomes president, her emphasis on human rights and adherence to international norms could add a new dimension to these actions, potentially bringing a more nuanced and principled approach to the region, despite the long-standing skepticism of Democrats towards such rhetoric.
Africa and South America
American elites continue to regard Africa as a less significant region in terms of global importance. However, the increasing influence of China on the African continent is prompting the United States to reconsider its approach towards African countries. Harris, due to her background and experience, may find it easier to establish relationships with African leaders. The media has often portrayed Trump as someone who looks down on poor and developing countries, including those in Africa.
Harris will obviously try to strengthen cooperation with African countries in the humanitarian field. She will do this not least to prevent them from being influenced by China. Trump's policy towards Africa will be based on agreements with African leaders and military pacts, considering this as an unnecessary expense. In this regard, he will benefit from his status as a businessman who knows how to negotiate with politicians.
The United States has viewed the countries of South America as their exclusive sphere of influence since the release of the Monroe Doctrine in 1822. American policy is based on the idea of a powerful country having influence over weaker and less successful nations. Like in the Middle East, US policies are more based on consensus than on ideological principles under President Trump. With the arrival of Trump, the US may increase aid to Argentina whose government aligns with Trump's values, while Vice President Harris seeks to influence Brazil and Peru who question US support for Ukraine.
Despite fierce debates and insults from opposing sides during the election campaign, Democrats and Republicans remain steadfastly committed to maintaining US global dominance. Neither presidential candidate is considering revising their stance in any way. Therefore, the relationship between the US and countries in the Global South will continue to be based on the United States' dominant position, and the prospects for military conflicts around the world, especially in the Middle East and Taiwan, will only confirm that the US will continue striving to maintain its global power status.
