Tokyo drift: LDP collapse and new policy course
On October 27, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a crushing defeat in the special elections to Japan's lower house. LDP leaders were unable to take a majority in the parliament even with the support of the Buddhist Komeito Party. The Liberal Democrats have been a major political force for 70 years, but face a serious crisis that the party needs to overcome while addressing security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region.
The scandals that changed everything
Japan's economy has been stagnant for three decades. The negative consequences of stagnation have become so impressive that they have been dubbed the "lost thirty years". The traditionally high savings rate initially allowed the Japanese to greatly expand their industrial infrastructure and turn the country into a world-class manufacturing powerhouse. But by the 1990s, the economy began to decline amid cheap credit, securities speculation, low demand, and the growth of a financial bubble. Close symbiotic ties between corporations and political forces, as well as the LDP's desire to stay in power, delayed the implementation of necessary reforms. As a result, the Japanese approached 2024 with a record national debt of $8 trillion, a collapsing currency (153 yen to the dollar), and distrust in the government, the backbone of which was made up of party members.
According to a number of Japanese researchers, Kishida's project was not original, but merely continued the strategy of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: investment in human capital, introduction of new work formats, expansion of grant programs, including a system of support for middle-class families with many children, wage increases and raising the average minimum wage rate to 1,000 yen per hour, reform of the system of individual financing of pension savings, and investment in science and innovation. However, the implementation of the reform was overshadowed by Abe's assassination: 41-year-old Tetsuyu Yamagami shot the politician, accusing him of having close ties to the Unification Church religious sect. Indeed, subsequent investigations revealed that the sect was supported by Abe's grandfather and father, and that the influence of its leaders later spread throughout the party.
A year and a half later, dozens of members of Seiwa, the intra-party faction led during Abe's lifetime, were implicated in corruption when they swindled about $3.4 million in donations into their accounts over five years. Among them were the heads of Japanese agencies: Hirokazu Matsuno, chief cabinet secretary, Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, Interior and Communications Minister Junji Suzuki and Ichiro Miyashita, agriculture minister. All were forced to resign. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, on whose term these high-profile cases fell, was also forced to leave office early. In explaining his decision, he said that citizens needed to see a renewed Liberal Democratic Party, as its level of support among the public had fallen to 20% over the past three years.
Three days before the government resigned, Shigeru Ishiba, a veteran of Japanese politics with a controversial reputation, was elected LDP chairman. He has repeatedly criticized the party, even resigned from it in 1993, but returned four years later. Abe's supporters consider Ishiba to be a fierce ideological opponent of their leader, but the decision to support his candidacy for chairman was dictated by a more pressing problem - the declining popularity of the LDP. After taking over as prime minister, Ishiba almost immediately announced a snap general election in which the ruling LDP coalition lost its majority for the first time since 2009 and posted its worst result ever. The Liberal Democrats' longtime coalition partner, the center-right Buddhist Komeito Party, also suffered reputational losses.
Different ideas but common expectations
The LDP corruption scandal has led to widespread criticism not only of the Kishida administration, but also of party factionalism. Historically, since unification in 1955, party members have represented two camps: the conservative mainstream and the conservative anti-mainstream. The former have enjoyed Japan's economic boom years, so the conservative mainstream is characterized by pragmatism, strong ties to the United States, and a non-aggressive security policy. The latter - the Seiwa, once led by Shinzo Abe - are known for their support for increased defense spending and constitutional revision, specifically Article 9, which refers to a “peace treaty” under which Japan renounces waging war. These contradictions, as well as changes in leaders within the party, have repeatedly affected the continuity of the society's development strategy. The political process, given that the LDP held a majority in parliament until recently, reminds the Japanese of a farce. Among voters, as sociologists note, pessimism and apathy toward politics prevail today.
Facing major reputational losses in 2023, all LDP factions except Seiwa announced their dissolution in an attempt to reform established ties. Prime Minister Ishiba, who essentially lost the election, did not leave office but promised to continue reforming the party. Now his political survival largely depends on the support of the opposition - the Japanese media name the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) as likely allies, although neither has yet agreed to a coalition.
IIn turn, the opposition, mainly at the expense of the Constitutional Democratic Party, which won 148 seats, formed a backbone of 250 mandates. Although there is no official word yet on the formation of a unified coalition, KDP leader Yoshihiko Noda has stated the need to cooperate “with parties that do not want the ruling coalition to continue in power.” Given the internal split of the Liberal Democrats, such cooperation is also possible with intra-party factions or some of their members. In any case, judging by the political course of the KDP and other opposition structures, there are fundamentally no serious contradictions regarding economic policy and foreign policy. Disagreements may arise mostly with regard to the degree with which certain reforms will be implemented, while no one in Japanese society today doubts the expediency of the reforms themselves.
Toward Asian unity
Shigeru Ishiba intends to continue the economic transformation planned by his predecessor Kishida. The prime minister is ready to raise taxes, including on capital gains, and also favors a gradual increase in the minimum wage to 1,500 yen per hour by 2030 and the development of Japan's regional economies. However, as media reports have noted, his monetary policy may be much tighter than under other prime ministers. The soft rhetoric of the Bank of Japan, which decided to raise the key rate only this spring - for the first time in 17 years, may come to an end.
Shigeru Ishiba has a generally hard line on foreign policy as well. In his career, he has earned the nickname - “military obsessed”. From 2000, he was deputy chief of the National Defense Office (NDO), and in the Fukuda government he was appointed defense minister.
His first personnel appointments are also significant in this regard: Takeshi Iwaya, former defense minister in the Abe government, was appointed foreign minister. Iwaya has systematically advocated constitutional amendments, the right to collective self-defense, and the reopening of the nuclear power plant. Itsunori Onodera, another former defense minister in the Shinzo Abe cabinet, became chairman of the LDP's political council. In May 2024, he demanded guarantees that Patriot SAMs produced in Japan under U.S. license would not be transferred to third parties, including Ukraine. The new defense minister, 67-year-old Gen Nakatani, also an Abe associate, takes a similar position on the constitutional ban on warfare, military reinforcement and rearmament.
Obviously, Japan's security issues and defense policy occupy an important place in Ishida's government, which advocates the creation of an “Asian NATO” and defends Japan's equal status in the military-political alliance with the United States. The conflict in Ukraine, according to the new prime minister, has changed the approach to global security, meaning that the lack of a collective self-defense system in Asia threatens military conflicts in the region. To contain China, Ishiba believes that an Asian alliance along the lines of Japan-U.S.-South Korea, as well as Canada, Australia, the Philippines, India, France and the United Kingdom is needed to guarantee mutual defense commitments to U.S. allies. In addition, the LDP leader floated the idea of deploying U.S. nuclear weapons in the region. However, as it was later clarified, it was not about the right of control, but only about “joint decision-making.”
Ishiba considers the rapprochement between Russia and North Korea and Moscow's cooperation with Beijing to be almost a direct threat to Japan's security. At a parliamentary session, the prime minister accused Russia and China of violating Japanese airspace. As examples, he mentioned the Japanese Defense Ministry's September statement about Russian fighter jets near Rebun Island, which has not been officially confirmed. Nevertheless, despite unconditional political steps aimed at containing China, Shigeru Ishiba is ready for dialog with China. A possible meeting with Xi Jinping may take place at the APEC summit to be held in November 2024 in Peru.
The outcome of this meeting will largely determine the future policy of the Ishiba Cabinet. For too long, Japanese society has been debating non-self-sufficiency in security matters. At the same time, the U.S. position towards Ukraine has clearly demonstrated that allied relations do not guarantee Washington's direct intervention in a military conflict, which means that only an official military alliance can demonstrate force if necessary. This is the kind of security architecture Ishiba sees in Asia, where partners not only jointly defend their interests, but also jointly think through solutions to various territorial conflicts.
