Turkey as mediator in international crises
Since the establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923 and to the present day, the official foreign agenda of the state has undergone dramatic changes. Since the beginning of the 21st century, Turkey’s involvement in international and local conflicts has been rapidly growing. Under the first president, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey’s fundamental principle was "peace in the country – peace in the world." This idea has been dominating the Turkish political arena throughout the entirety of its history. However, in recent years, there have been a growing number of Islamist movements that are opposed to the idea of a secular Muslim state. Thus, since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power, Islam has become a crucial factor that started to determine not only Turkey’s domestic affairs but also its foreign policy, especially in the context of the state's increasing influence in the Middle East.
Turkey's Middle East policy
In the 21st century, the Middle East has become a priority for Turkey’s foreign policy. Initially, Erdogan's policy was reduced to the concept of "zero problems with neighbors”, which was meant to ensure mutually beneficial and peaceful relations with neighboring states.
However, at the same time, Turkey strived to join the ranks of world superpowers and exercise more influence over the countries that were formerly part of the Ottoman Empire, which gave rise to a new national ideology called Neo-Ottomanism.
Today, Neo-Ottomanism is the core concept of Turkey’s government policy and the basis of the authoritarian Islamist program of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), whose leader is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The ideology of Neo-Ottomanism implies combining democratic values and religiosity.
With the retreat from secularism and the revival of Islam in Turkish society, Neo-Ottomanism has been successfully developing both inside and outside Turkey. Thus, having expanded the area of its national interests, Ankara began attempting to spread its influence in such states as Libya, Iraq, Syria, and the regions of Transcaucasia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey's involvement in Syria
Turkey’s ultimate rejection of the concept of "zero problems with neighbors" and its transition to a more imperialistic foreign policy were prompted by the events of the Arab Spring: the turbulence in the Middle East provided an opportunity for the country to promote its model of socio-economic and political modernization in the region, for example, in Syria.
In accordance with the religious priorities of its new foreign policy, Turkey joined the coalition of the Sunni Arab states that wanted to overthrow Syria's Alawite ruler Bashar al-Assad. The principal reason for Ankara's entry into the war with Syria was the Kurdish issue. It is a very painful topic for the Turks, which jeopardizes the security of Turkey's eastern borders.
The Syrian government, represented by Bashar al-Assad, made a number of concessions to the Syrian Kurds: it declared amnesty and promised to grant them autonomy, which the Turkish leaders could not allow. That is why, in 2016, the Turkish armed forces conducted Operation Euphrates Shield with the aim of pushing back terrorist organizations, including the Kurdish People's Self-Defense Units (YPG), from their state borders.
This operation constituted proof of the increasing divergence between Turkey's foreign policy and that of its closest allies, notably NATO and the United States, which cooperated with the Kurds by supplying them with weapons. Moreover, it demonstrated Turkey's aspiration to make defense decisions independently of the Western bloc.
Thus, Turkey entered into an alliance with Russia by signing a memorandum of understanding in Sochi, which confirmed Ankara’s right to evacuate all YPG fighters to the east of the Euphrates and create a buffer zone for the resettlement of Syrian refugees.
The second pressing issue for Ankara was the city of Idlib, a de-escalation zone for the Islamist formations and the Syrian military, which refused to fight against Syrian President Bashir al-Assad. Turkey’s goal was to establish control over the area in order to prevent a mass movement of refugees in the direction of its borders.
Turkey's interests in the South Caucasus
Contrary to the Syrian crisis, in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkey adopted a position that was in conflict with that of Moscow. For the last 30 years, Ankara has been pressuring Yerevan to abandon its demands for material compensation to the descendants of Armenian genocide victims, to recognize the region of Western Armenia as part of Turkey, and to close the Armenian nuclear power plant (Metsamor) located on the border of the two countries.
Through its support of Azerbaijan in the war against Armenia, the Turkish side tried to strengthen its relations with Baku and expand its influence in the South Caucasus, while `Moscow advocated for the preservation of Armenia's borders and provided peacekeeping support to Yerevan within the framework of the CSTO.
In June 2022, with Turkey’s assistance, a meeting was organized between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Its aim was to negotiate a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, a year later, when Baku launched an active military operation in the region, Ankara again supported Azerbaijan
We support the steps taken by Azerbaijan – with whom we abide by the same motto of one nation, two states – to defend its territorial integrity.
Turkey’s position on Ukraine
As for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey's position is not exclusively pro-Moscow or pro-Kiev. Ankara is trying to balance between the two states in an attempt to derive some benefits for itself in this confrontation. Thus, Turkey does not recognize the Crimean Peninsula as part of Russia, and it does not acknowledge the results of the referendums of September 23, 2022, on the accession of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. However, at the same time, the Turkish media portray Crimea and the Donetsk People's Republic as zones of influence of Turkey, which calls into question Turkish support for Ukraine's sovereignty. In addition, despite the statements of the Republic's officials about their willingness to comply with the current sanctions regime against Moscow, Turkey still exports aircraft parts to Russia. Moreover, according to Western experts, Russia has a secret oil fleet that transports oil through Turkey to Asia.
We recognize the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We are on the side of Ukraine in this war. Turkey is the only country that is making a real effort to end the war.
In addition, Turkey is a major arms supplier to Kiev and is involved in 262 reconstruction projects in Ukraine within the memorandum of understanding to rebuild the country, which amount to $9.3 billion. The overwhelming majority of Turkish-Ukrainian projects are related to the military-industrial complex. For example, Ankara and Kiev are taking steps to carry out joint production of the Akinci UCAV with an engine manufactured by the Ukrainian company Ivchenko-Progress, and the Turkish defense corporation Aselsan is implementing a project to supply the Ukrainian army with communications equipment.
Similarly to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, Erdogan also declared his readiness to act as a mediator in the reconciliation of the two countries. However, the only positive result that was achieved during the negotiations was the resolution of the grain issue between the Russian and Ukrainian sides. For Turkey, the grain deal was of great importance, which is why Ankara took a neutral stance on economic cooperation with the participating countries.
As of July 20, 2023, the total export volume of grain and other foods within the Black Sea Grain Initiative totaled 32.9 million tons. According to the UN, more than half of it was received by five countries: China (8 million tons), Spain (6 million tons), Turkey (3.2 million tons), Italy (2.1 million tons), and the Netherlands (1.9 million tons).
While Erdogan still bases his position on a peaceful settlement of the dispute between Russia and Ukraine, he simultaneously acknowledges that there are no prospects for ending the conflict in the near future. It is also worth noting that the US heavily criticizes Ankara for its ambiguous stance towards Moscow and Kiev.
Turkey’s reaction to Israeli-Palestinian conflict
The only conflict in which Turkey officially opposes the position of the United States is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that broke out in October 2023 on the border of the Gaza Strip and Israel. Relations between Turkey and Israel were strained for 13 years. It was only in 2022 that their relations stabilized, which was cemented by the exchange of ambassadors between the two countries. However, with the Palestinian-Israeli clash, Ankara once again unambiguously supported Palestine.
In the first days following October 7, the Turkish President refrained from making any loud statements about the situation. However, sometime later, a decision was made to join the anti-Israeli coalition. This was prompted by several reasons, notably the scale of the Israel Defense Forces operation, the growing discontent of the local population, the approaching parliamentary elections, as well as ideological sympathies for the Muslim Brotherhood, to which Hamas belongs, and the fear of competition from Israel as an energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean region.
From Turkey's standpoint, the West is the guilty party in the escalation of Israel's crimes in the Gaza Strip. It is common knowledge that Washington has been actively supporting Tel Aviv throughout the entire existence of the Jewish state, and today's conflict is no exception. Since the beginning of the recent military clash, the United States has been regularly supplying arms to Israel in support of the political course of its Zionist government.
Justifying violent attacks is a legacy of the Western bloody history ... Do you (the West) want to ignite a new war between the cross and the crescent? If you are making such an effort, then know this: this nation is not dead; it is standing firmly on its feet. We are as determined in the Middle East as we were in Libya and in Karabakh.
Today, Turkey plays a significant role on the international stage and regularly acts as a guarantor or mediator in negotiations between conflicting parties. While helping other states resolve controversies, Ankara does not forget to pursue its own national interests, which, in turn, predetermines its choice of allies in local and large-scale clashes. This way, Turkey tries to minimize the external threat and simultaneously solve its internal problems, while promoting its national ideology, Neo-Ottomanism, in the Middle East.
