Vietnam at the crossroads between the United States and China
The South China Sea is the shortest trade route through which 20% of the world's goods worth more than $3 trillion are transported annually. The governments of China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam and Taiwan cannot agree among themselves on the joint use of the maritime space, so they dispute the ownership of the territories. In these conditions, the United States saw an opportunity to limit China's international influence by supporting some coastal countries in Southeast Asia that assert their right to use logistical routes. Thus, in 2023, the United States and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) upgraded the level of partnership to "comprehensive strategic". The reasoning behind this was Washington's desire to prevent the SRV from falling under the influence of the PRC on the basis of a common state ideology and huge investments in the country's development after the war. However, the Vietnamese government, while gaining economic benefits from cooperation with authoritative countries of the world, strives to maintain a multi-vector foreign policy.
Historical Aspect
Until 1940, the territory of modern Vietnam was part of the French colony of Indochina. During World War II, following the French surrender, the peninsula was invaded by the Japanese military, which exploited Vietnam's natural resources to support its military campaigns. A few years later, as a result of the outbreak of armed conflict between the armies of Japan and France in Southeast Asia, the original inhabitants of the colony created a nationalist liberation movement based on communist ideology, the Viet Minh, whose members spent the following years seeking the country's independence and the end of the Japanese occupation.
The world community satisfied the demands of the colony's inhabitants only in 1954, when, in accordance with the Geneva Accords, French Indochina was divided into three separate countries: Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, which, in turn, was divided along the 17th parallel by the demilitarized zone into two administrative regions. The Vietnamese People's Army was based in North Vietnam, while in the south were forces that maintained close integration ties with the former metropolis, France.
The division of the country was not intended to be permanent and envisioned that Vietnam would reunite after free elections held in both parts in 1956 to determine the future political regime. Against the backdrop of mutual non-recognition, as well as confrontation of the dominant ideologies, South Vietnam held a referendum in 1955, according to the results of which this part of the country became a democratic republic.
After a long global war, the world community was interested in preventing another potential hot spot from appearing on the political map. In particular, Soviet diplomats made unsuccessful attempts to unite North and South Vietnam. Categorically rejecting the possibility of unification under a single flag, the leader of the South, Ngo Dinh Ziem, presented a number of territorial claims unresolved during the struggle with France - the First Indochina War.
1955 was the starting point of the Vietnam War as the world split into two camps. The South's allies were France, the United States, the partially recognized Republic of Taiwan, Thailand, and neighboring Laos. The North was supported by socialist bloc countries such as the USSR and the PRC.
US interests in the Vietnam War
Against the backdrop of the Cold War, the world powers perceived the conflict in Southeast Asia as a way to establish dominant state regimes throughout the macro-region. To prevent the eventual establishment of communist ideology in the warring states, by 1960, the U.S. government had sent its military contingent to the war zone.
Saboteurs from North Vietnam regularly staged numerous sabotage operations in enemy territory and hid in the jungle afterward. In order to effectively combat them, the government of the 35th President of the United States John F. Kennedy decided to spray over the territory where diversants were supposedly hiding the chemical agent Argent Orange, which contains a dangerous mutagen. A total of 77 million liters of the toxic poison were dumped on Vietnam over a ten-year period, affecting rivers, soil and local residents. Regular chemical attacks caused hereditary genetic diseases and abnormalities in many generations of the Vietnamese population.
However, the numerical superiority of the army and the support of the collective Western countries did not help South Vietnam win the war. In 1975, the unified Socialist Republic of Vietnam was formed on the political map of the world. The conflict between the South and the North contributed to the aggravation of the internal situation in neighboring Laos and Cambodia, which led to the fall of pro-Western regimes and the formation of communist states. The U.S. lost interest in the new state, closed its embassy, and imposed a trade embargo against Vietnam that lasted until 1994.
The countries' relations after the war
After the war, Vietnam was one of the poorest countries in the world with an average income for working-age citizens of $200 per year. In these conditions, the government was forced to look for any opportunities to stimulate the lagging economy. Thus, it decided to use Western investment for its domestic economic reforms. The United States, seeing that the country no longer posed a military threat, restored diplomatic relations in 1995, which was immediately reflected in the growth of Vietnam's economy.
The United States is currently the eighth largest trading partner in the world and the largest among ASEAN countries. The state imports textiles, electronics, animal products and seafood. Among the major goods imported into Vietnam are cotton, computer chips and soybeans.
Pursuing the long-term goal of limiting China's influence in the international arena, Washington has continued to increase investment and boost Vietnam's economy. Against this backdrop, the countries even signed agreements on economic, technical and military cooperation. Nevertheless, the PRC's direct investment in Vietnam's economy exceeds US funding.
Investors from the People's Republic of China control a total of 90% of all contracts for the construction of industrial and transportation infrastructure in Vietnam. In addition, trade turnover between the countries has exceeded $200 billion since 2022, making China Vietnam's largest economic partner.
The investment has proven to be a powerful tool for the Vietnamese to pursue the interests of the US, its allies and multinational companies that produce oil and gas in Vietnam's territorial waters. However, regular violations of the established maritime boundary by Chinese vessels have angered members of the Vietnamese public. Regularly, activists call on the government to uphold the country's interests in the maritime space and protect Vietnam's sovereign territory.
Maritime security is a key aspect of defense ties between the countries. For instance, from 2017 to 2023, the US Department of State allocated $104 million to the Vietnamese government to strengthen the nation's maritime security and law enforcement capabilities under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program.
Over the past decade, Vietnam-US security cooperation has grown significantly in a comprehensive partnership. For this reason, during Joe Biden's visit to Vietnam, the two sides signed an agreement to upgrade the partnership to a "comprehensive strategic" level. The states intend to ease trade barriers, promote mutual investment and cooperation in various fields. Special attention will be paid to the technology sector as the US is determined to help Vietnam develop its semiconductor industry.
With the intensifying competition between the US and China, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Vietnam to maintain a balance and build trusting and thus economically beneficial relations with major partners and their allies. Given the fact that the Chinese authorities are interested in economic growth and increasing their influence in the region, in the foreseeable future, relations between the countries may aggravate over the issue of ownership of disputed territories in the South China Sea. At the same time, the United States of America should not count on the support of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam in any actions aimed at containing China. A number of government documents emphasize that Vietnamese foreign policy is based on the "four no's" principle: no participation in military alliances, no siding with one country in actions against another, no foreign military bases on the State's territory and no use of force in international relations. Vietnam will pursue a neutral foreign policy, despite possible increasing economic dependence on the PRC and the United States.
