Westernization that never happened: how Asia is overcoming Western influence
Asia has long been an object of interest to Western countries. Japan and China have always been looked upon as desirable trade partners owing to many reasons, from favorable sea routes to silk, porcelain, and opium. However, the typical European and U.S. policy of subjugation has repeatedly proven ineffective, provoking uprisings, coups, and wars in the region. Today, the post-World War II world order is being widely challenged, primarily by China. Japan, which survived the U.S. atomic bombings, is also striving for self-sufficiency and trying to build relationships with like-minded nations. Overall, more and more countries in East and Southeast Asia are currently leaning toward regional independence and attempting to limit Western influence.
Imposed conditions
Western expansion to the East began long before the era of equal bilateral diplomatic relations. The first Europeans in China, and later in Japan, were the Portuguese. They set up their first trade outposts in 1513 in what is now South China and gradually ventured into the territory of Macau. Soon, however, because of the rash behavior of one Portuguese captain and merchant, Simão de Andrade, who executed a sailor in the lands of present-day Hong Kong, the Chinese, offended by the foreigners' conduct, banned male Europeans from several areas of China. With varying success, the Portuguese tried to reclaim the ports through raiding and pillaging, but the local population only reacted violently by destroying their settlements.
As the Portuguese suffered setbacks in China, they also tried to build a relationship with Japan. In 1543, they were the first Europeans to reach the shores of Kyushu Island, where they founded the port of Nagasaki. Since the Japanese were forbidden to trade with the Chinese, the first thing the Portuguese did was bring the coveted porcelain and silk from China to Japan. By 1600, however, competition with Spanish and English traders led to increasing conflicts. The Japanese bourgeoisie, which was prospering through its ties with European merchants, began to threaten the feudal power, and there were more and more attempts on the part of foreign nations to interfere in Japan’s domestic affairs. All this led to the country’s self-isolation: all missionary activity, foreign religion, imported books, and even large-scale ship building were forbidden. Japanese who traveled outside the country faced the death penalty. After 1720, the military ruler Tokugawa Yoshimune relaxed the rules regarding foreign books and Dutch goods. The second half of the 18th century was marked by "rangaku," or "Dutch studies," which became an important alternative to the dominant intellectual practices borrowed from China.
In Beijing, the lack of a strict policy toward foreigners led to many conflicts between European traders. The British, eager to gain control over business transactions, were forced to oppose the Portuguese and numerous pirate groups that raided merchant ships. By this time, opium was becoming Britain’s most profitable commodity. Although the opium trade was prohibited by imperial decrees, British merchants continued to smuggle it into the country. In 1839, large opium stocks were seized from the British by Chinese authorities, and future offenders were threatened with the death penalty. In 1840, Britain declared war on the Qing Empire. The 8th president of the United States, Martin Van Buren, supported the war and called it perfectly just. As a result, the Chinese were defeated. The British then imposed the Treaty of Nanking, which forced China to cede Hong Kong Island to the British crown. All Chinese ports were opened to British traders, and the lion's share of profit from the opium trade was sent to London.
Three years later, U.S. ships moored to the coast of Macau with only one mission: to impose the Treaty of Wanghia, which aimed to achieve the same privileges for American merchants as those established by the Treaty of Nanking. The treaty was passed by the U.S. Congress and ratified by President John Tyler on January 17, 1845. The tough conditions imposed by the West soon brought China into decline and brought about civil unrest, enslavement of the population, mass drug addiction, and high mortality rates. Meanwhile, Britain and the United States sought to renegotiate the terms of the treaties, demanding unrestricted trade rights throughout China and official authorization for the opium trade. In 1856, the Second Opium War broke out.
Shortly before, in July 1853, American Commodore Matthew Perry docked his ships in the harbor of Tokyo Bay with the aim of bringing Japan out of its isolation and making it renew regular trade with the West. President Millard Fillmore's decision came about not long after the U.S.-Mexican War, as a result of which the U.S. gained possession of the California coast. Having ports in the Pacific Ocean guaranteed a steady flow of shipping between North America and Asia. Japan’s favorable geographic location and rumors of its vast coal reserves made diplomatic contacts with the Japanese all the more attractive.
The Tokugawa period ended in 1868 with the Meiji Restoration. Beginning in 1868, Japanese authorities headed by the emperor constantly experimented with new models of government. Japan modernized its army and navy, built steel and chemical plants, and established shipping companies and a postal system. In 1894–95, Japan defeated China in the First Sino-Japanese War, which ended with the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki. According to this treaty, China gave up all rights to Korea and handed over to Japan the Liaodong Peninsula and Manchuria. By that time, Russians had already ventured into these territories. Together with Korea, they were widely perceived as the new Russian periphery, and Koreans were compared to the Kyrgyz, which inhabited the Russian Empire. The forest concessions on the Yalu River, concluded by Russian industrialists with Koreans, gave Russia legitimate political grounds to enter into direct confrontation with Japan to protect its economic interests. As a result, the Russo-Japanese War broke out in 1904, ending with the signing of a peace treaty brokered by the United States. Russia ceded to Japan the southern part of Sakhalin, lease rights to the Liaodong Peninsula and the South Manchurian Railway connecting Port Arthur with the Chinese Eastern Railway, and recognized Korea as a zone of Japanese influence. U.S. Secretary of War William Howard Taft and Japanese Prime Minister Katsura Taro concluded the Taft-Katsura Agreement, under which the United States recognized Japanese rule over Korea and condoned the 1902 Anglo-Japanese alliance.
At the same time, tensions persisted between the two countries due to their territorial claims in Asia. Japan had to recognize Washington's control over the Philippines. For its part, the United States recognized Japan's control over Taiwan and the Pescadores, as well as its special interest in Manchuria. This re-division of Asia fueled the existing Chinese discontent and led to numerous uprisings and boycotts in Shanghai and Beijing. The Qing policies to increase the flow of international investment resulted in the ultimate collapse of the dynasty. Owing to the rapid growth of nationalist sentiment, China declared war on Japan in August 1917. China sought to reassert its claim to the Shandong Peninsula, which at the time was part of a German concession and had already been seized by Japan. The Treaty of Versailles, which ended World War I, granted Japan the Shandong Peninsula, which angered the Chinese. On May 4, 1919, students flocked to the streets to protest Japanese imperialism and the Versailles Peace Treaty. Civil unrest led to the Chinese Civil War and the rise of communist forces.
While China was plagued by internal strife, the Imperial Japanese Army invaded Manchuria in northeastern China in 1931 and installed a puppet government. In 1937, superior Japanese forces captured Beijing and the commercial center of Shanghai, but China mounted a vigorous defense. By 1940, Franklin D. Roosevelt had given China loans to buy war equipment and included the country in the lend-lease program. Moreover, in 1941, the U.S. stopped selling aircraft, oil, and metal to Japan. This embargo was one of the reasons for the Japanese raid on Pearl Harbor. In response, the U.S. made one of the most controversial decisions in human history and launched nuclear attacks on Japanese cities that killed about 225,000 people. To this day, the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only examples of the use of nuclear weapons in an armed conflict.
Balance of power
Today, the U.S. remains more influential in the Philippines and Singapore, according to Australia’s Lowy Institute. China dominated in Thailand in 2018, but the U.S. regained its leading position in 2022. Beijing's influence remains strongest in Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar due to the countries’ geographic proximity and Washington's relatively weak claims.
The researchers compared the countries' influence on the basis of four criteria: economy, defense networks, diplomacy, and culture. The last two criteria proved to be the least important for Asian countries. In terms of diplomacy, a strong inclination toward China is recorded in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand. At the same time, communist Vietnam and the Philippines largely remain under U.S. cultural influence.
The traditional White House attitude toward the region is based on the notion that Washington is the architect of the current international order, according to the rules established after World War II. China, in turn, tries to portray the U.S. as an extra-regional actor that incites conflicts between Asian countries. China itself wants to reinforce its own dominance by promoting the idea of “Asia for Asians.”
Each of the region's major economies – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India – ran a significant trade surplus with Beijing in various years. However, after World War II, Japan, under a new constitution, gave up its right to wage war and renounced the use of force in resolving international disputes. On the other hand, the U.S. was alarmed by the North Korean threat and China's expansion, which prompted it to strengthen its relations with Tokyo. Cooperation proved to be beneficial to both sides, and consequently, cultural exchange was not long in coming. Popular music, fashion, movies, television, and even American cuisine made their way to Japan, while Japanese animation, manga, martial arts, and television shows caught on in the U.S.
South Korea is now one of the most pro-American countries in the world. According to a 2018 Pew poll, 77% of the country's residents have a favorable view of the United States. Seoul is a major supplier of U.S. military equipment. In December 2023, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) of the Republic of Korea signed a contract with the United States for the delivery of 20 low-observable F-35A fighter jets. In this context, the popularization of South Korean cultural projects, such as the movie “Parasite,” which won an Academy Award in 2022, appears quite understandable.
The United States applied a similar military method to control Thailand during the Cold War, promising to protect the country from the communist threat. Since 1982, the two countries have been jointly conducting annual Cobra Gold military exercises, the largest multinational military exercises in Southeast Asia. However, the 2014 coup in Bangkok, which overthrew the democratic government, forced the U.S. to cut its military and financial aid. China hastened to occupy this vacant niche in the arms supply. Between 2016 and 2022, Thailand received $394 million worth of Chinese submarines, anti-ship missiles, air defense systems, and armored vehicles.
In this context, Taiwan is now becoming a stumbling block between China and the U.S. According to U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner, the disputed territory is located at a critical node, anchoring the network of U.S. allies – Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan. Taiwan's position is critical to the security of the region and the protection of U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. The January 2024 Taiwanese presidential elections were won by Lai Ching-te, a candidate from an anti-Beijing political party. In his speech, he reassured the public of his commitment to "protect the island from threats and intimidation from mainland China". At the same time, Ching-te does not intend to sever all ties with the People’s Republic of China but still considers Taiwan an independent territory that will try to maintain the status quo in the strait, guaranteeing security in the region.
One Asia, One Way
During his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in late 2023, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a new era of "realism diplomacy." The politician promised to double Japan’s defense spending and continue developing the defense industry with a focus on next-generation technologies, including long-range missiles and fighter jets. Kishida spoke of the growing uncertainty in the region but did not directly confront China or the U.S. The prime minister also made a historic trip to the Philippines and Malaysia to unveil Japan's new Official Security Assistance (OSA) initiative, which aims to unite like-minded countries in the region. The allies are laying the groundwork for a Japan-Philippines-US trilateral alliance (JAPHUS) to deter any potential Chinese threats. At the same time, the military buildup may signal Tokyo's willingness to stand on its own without relying on U.S. military aid.
Since the election of a democratic leader, Taiwan has opted for a different tactic, recognizing its independence but also expecting cooperation with China. Beijing, in turn, adopted a tougher stance toward Taiwan, omitting mention of "peaceful reunification" in government reports. China has also announced its intention to increase its defense spending by 7.2 percent this year, which unnerves the U.S. and its allies. Many countries in the region now face the problem of depleted budgets, which makes them vulnerable to new external shocks.
Political uncertainty will be spurred by elections scheduled in nearly half of Asia-Pacific countries. According to analysts, mainland China's economic recovery and Japan's monetary policy are emerging as major risk factors.
Another important point on the regional agenda is the development of their own supply chains for natural resources, which demonstrates the countries' desire for self-sufficiency. Japan and South Korea, according to S&P Global estimates, will reduce their dependence on processed minerals from mainland China. In 2020, China accounted for more than half of the world's lithium processing capacity. Indonesia and Malaysia will redirect investment to expand their mining and processing capacities.
In the East, westernization, in the usual sense of the word, has its peculiarities. The countries may complement each other culturally or inherit certain traits from one another, but at their core, they remain a system of complex and distinctive relationships that have developed over hundreds of years. Diplomacy and military support play a crucial role in the region. The U.S. is well aware of its position in the Indo-Pacific, announcing new economic initiatives and the deployment of land-based medium-range missiles. However, Japan and the Philippines, as Nikkei Asia notes, do not want to host U.S. missiles, thus becoming direct targets for the Chinese military.
The national identity that Taiwan demonstrates toward China, or China toward the entire West, is equally applicable to Japan. The cultural and religious foundations that bind most countries in the region go back hundreds of years. The only exceptions are South Korea and the Philippines, which have experienced massive military influence of the U.S. However, the emerging dialogue between Manila and Tokyo and their joint refusal to deploy U.S. missiles could shift the balance of power in favor of regional stability, which would challenge Washington's influence in the Pacific. But it is the relationship between China and Japan that plays a fundamental role. Throughout their history, the countries have always been at odds with each other, taking opposite sides not only in regional but also in global conflicts. Their mutually beneficial relationship, based on common strategic interests, has every chance of becoming the monolithic foundation of regional security in Asia.
