World map in conditions of environmental disaster
Ocean acidification, melting glaciers, sea level rise (average experts estimate 40–50 cm), greenhouse gases, extreme weather conditions and increased frequency of heat waves are all the outcomes of anthropogenic influences on the global environment. As a result of urbanization and gas pollution in cities, a large number of non-environmental industries, burning of fossil fuels and cutting down trees, an increase in the greenhouse effect and warming in the surface layer of the earth occurs, which in the foreseeable future may lead to irreversible consequences for all of humankind.
Climate change
Over the past half century, the number of disasters associated with weather events, climate change and water problems has increased 5 times, causing damage of about $200 million daily. If government environmental policies remain unimproved, then by 2100 the temperature on the planet may increase by 3.7–4.8°C. At the same time, according to climatologists, warming of just 2°C threatens irreversible consequences for the environment. To keep warming levels to 1.5°C, governments must already reduce emissions by 7 times. To address this problem, the Paris Agreement was signed on December 12, 2015, which aims to achieve significant reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions and limitation of the global temperature rise in this century to 2°C, while searching for tools to limit this increase to 1.5°C. However, the value of this partnership is quite insignificant, since most of the countries that signed this agreement have not ratified it, and the document does not contain sanctions for violating its terms.
Globally, over 1.6 billion people living in more than 970 cities will be regularly exposed to three-month average temperatures reaching at least 35°C by the 2050s. Such changes in weather conditions could lead to devastating socio-economic consequences and cause dramatic effects on public health, especially in countries with low living standards.
Floods, droughts, heatwaves, extreme storms, and wildfires are going from bad to worse, breaking records with alarming frequency," said Guterres. "Heatwaves in Europe. Colossal floods in Pakistan. Prolonged and severe droughts in China, the Horn of Africa, and the United States. There is nothing natural about the new scale of these disasters. They are the price of humanity's fossil fuel addiction.
Many ecology experts note that the further south the territory, the slower the temperature rises, and the further north, the more rapidly it rises. Climate change could dramatically worsen the lives of more than 1.5 billion people in the next 50 years, forcing them to leave their homes and their usual habitat. At the moment, there is a high possibility in flooding of low-lying settlements - entire countries could go under water and disappear forever. First of all, this will affect people living in places with extremely high temperatures and areas bordering the sea or ocean, such as Guatemala, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Bangladesh.
That is why, resorting to proactive efforts to save the lives of their people, the practice of “managed retreat” has emerged, that is, the strategic movement of entire settlements, peoples, buildings from areas vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. Such migrants are called “climate refugees.” According to the World Bank, the number of climate migrants could exceed 200 million by 2050, with Tropical Africa, South Asia and Latin America considered the most dangerous regions.
Extreme weather conditions (storms, floods and hurricanes) and geophysical events (earthquakes) triggered more than three-quarters of the world's new internal migrations in 2020. Over 60% of them came from five countries: China (5.1 million), the Philippines and Bangladesh (4.4 million each, respectively), India (3.9 million) and the USA (1.7 million).
Climate safe zones
Against the backdrop of climate change, global warming and projected changes in sea level, many are wondering about finding the most favorable and suitable territories for life in conditions of environmental disasters, the so-called climate-safe zones (CSZ).
Climate-safe zones are territories that are potentially resistant to environmental changes and have sufficient resources for life in conditions of an environmental disaster. Most often, scientists point out that the territories of the CSZ should be located significantly above sea level, not susceptible to wildfires and hurricanes, located in a weathering zone, and have access to clean water. When determining the CSZ, it is necessary to take into account global warming (it should not be too hot and humid), distance from coastal zones and the presence of precipitation as a source of fresh water. The most vulnerable locations are coasts and islands, arid areas and mountainous regions, as well as permafrost areas, where migration flows may increase as ice melts intensify. Thus, in the future, the taiga may become the most favorable area. Global warming will soften the climate and increase humidity, the species composition of plants and animals will change, their growing season will lengthen, and as a result, agricultural potential will increase - all this will make the taiga adaptive to live.
Taiga is the largest landscape zone in Russia, its width in the European part reaches 800 km, and in Western and Eastern Siberia - 2150 km. The most favorable territories of Russia that could potentially become a CSZ in the future include: Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, Krasnoyarsk Region, Irkutsk Region, Buryatia, Khakassia, Tyva, Tyumen Region, Altai.
Also, following the abovementioned conditions, there are other climate-safe areas on the world map: Canada (a fairly high percentage of taiga forests), North America (Great Lakes region), China (Tibet region, the largest and highest highland in the world), some Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Denmark and Norway). At the same time, according to experts, the most vulnerable countries are the European countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Denmark, the countries of South and Southeast Asia, as well as island states (the islands of Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, the Maldives, several Caribbean islands).
The climatic and geographical diversity of Russia determines its relative resistance to global changes; in the future, the territory of Russia will be least susceptible to the negative consequences of global warming compared to other countries of the world. However, some regions of Russia will face serious consequences: temperatures in the southern part of Russia will continue to rise resulting drought which may reduce the productivity of agricultural industries, some cities (St. Petersburg, Samara, Lipetsk, Taganrog, Vladivostok, Magnitogorsk and others) have a chance of falling under water, and warming in Siberia can disrupt established ecological cycles and cause the emergence and spread of new diseases.
From 19s more than 26.000 natural disasters have occurred in the world, causing massive human and economic losses. Every year their number continues to grow, and humanity is seriously concerned about finding safe places in case of climate disasters. According to environmentalists, if already started global processes continue to develop, and the environmental agenda does not come to the forefront for all nations of the world, then pessimistic forecasts may come true. The planet may experience a global population outflow, some of the densely populated areas today can become uninhabitable, and the availability of water, food, medical care, infrastructure and management can be threatened.
